For a man who prides himself on conducting diplomacy by instinct and through personal relationships, Donald Trump’s susceptibility to Vladimir Putin has long puzzled observers – and rightly caused extreme distress to those who stand to lose the most from it. He really doesn’t seem to be able to see Vladimir Putin for what he is: a cunning, ruthless and cruel imperialist, and a danger to the West.
Some speculate that the Kremlin has explosive “kompromat” on the president – but, if so, Mr Trump has hinted that he doesn’t care. The possibility has, in fact, not prevented Mr Trump from occasionally standing up to the Russians.
Were the US president’s predilections more consistent, they might be easier for his allies to manage. But, capricious as he is, President Trump never quite seems to make his mind up about his Russian counterpart. He even openly says that he thinks his Russian counterpart might be playing him along. Any such impatience is, however, usually resolved with a conversation, face-to-face or over the hotline to the Kremlin, and Mr Trump starts spouting Kremlin talking points again. His special envoy, Steve Witkoff, seems equally hopelessly in thrall.
Unfortunately for Ukraine and its European allies, President Trump does not seem nearly as ready to treat Volodymyr Zelensky as an equal, nor even listen to him with much respect. Vladimir Putin, however misguidedly, is treated as another “strong man”, with the potential for all sorts of lucrative deal-making, even when he lets his American friends down by bombing Ukrainian schools and care homes. Mr Zelensky, despite agreeing to talks based on every peace proposal made by Mr Trump, dressing as required, and conceding a lucrative minerals deal, is treated with painful contempt.
The accounts that have emerged from the recent encounter between the pair are, sadly, all too believable. The earnest Ukrainian leader prefers to speak in his imperfect English and tries to stand up for his brave homeland, and has the unfortunate knack of being able to wind up Mr Trump while trying to do the opposite. So there was a shouting match, some cursing – and perhaps no president since Richard Nixon has dropped as many F-bombs as Mr Trump – and Mr Zelensky’s maps of his country were pushed aside. Only because this meeting was in private could it be said to have been less humiliating and less of a disaster for Ukraine than the infamous row in the Oval Office in February. The meeting certainly did not last long, in stark contrast with Mr Trump’s most recent phone conversation with Putin, a few days before. Needless to add, Mr Zelensky did not get the Tomahawk missiles he had sought.
Instead, the Ukrainian leader was at first told to settle the war on Russia’s current terms – surrendering the entire Donbas region, including large stretches of strategically vital territory that the Russians, even after more than two years of combat, have still not captured. Scarcely less alarming, Mr Trump now advocates the simplest of all settlements – that the combatants simply freeze the current front lines and “go home”.
On his Truth Social channel, Mr Trump put it in real estate terms: “Enough blood has been shed, with property lines being defined by War and Guts. They should stop where they are. Let both claim Victory, let History decide!”
Whatever “History” does eventually decide, such a settlement carries immediate risks for the West. Mr Zelensky accepts it – but only as the basis for more talks. He says that Putin “does not want peace”, and he is right about that. However, given the parlous state of the Russian economy, and thus Putin’s war machine, a temporary phase in the fighting and the relaxation of US sanctions on Russia would offer advantages for the Kremlin – hence the offer being made via Mr Trump.
In reality, for Mr Zelensky, a continuation of the war to the stage where the Russian economy could not sustain it – some say a matter of months – would be preferable. But such an outcome would offend Mr Trump (making his Nobel Peace Prize still less likely), and could attract characteristically spiteful retaliation. America could adopt a position of bogus neutrality, ending arms supplies to Ukraine, even to the European powers willing to purchase them on Kyiv’s behalf. If Putin caught Mr Trump in the right sort of mood, America might even end up easing trade restrictions and economic sanctions against Moscow, thus kick-starting the war machine.
As has been clear since Mr Trump won the election almost a year ago, the defence of Ukraine has to fall to Europe and its associated partners around the world. America is simply too unreliable an ally; in effect, it has almost switched sides. So far, the “coalition of the willing”, constructed under the joint leadership of Sir Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron, has shown worrying signs of reluctance to make sure that Ukraine can win the war, rather than continuing to offer the bare minimum required to ensure that it does not lose it.
For Europe, it is a matter of money, of technology transfer, of expanding industrial capacity, and of persuading America to keep selling the advanced weaponry to pass on to Mr Zelensky’s beleaguered nation. All of these components of a successful strategy can be achieved with political will.
Mr Trump, despite his wobbles and his weaving, knows what he wants – an end to the war on any available terms, preparatory to a historic rapprochement with Russia. Mr Zelensky, to borrow a phrase, wants his country back, or at least as much as can be realistically regained if and when Russia sues for peace. Yet since the very first day of Putin’s “special military operation” in February 2022, Europe as a whole has been unable to define its war aims, and remains divided about what they might be.
British ministers, for example, no longer declare that “Ukraine must win”. If Ukraine falls, plenty of blame will attach to the indifference of Mr Trump to the rights of small nations and international law, but it will also show that European defence is, as yet, merely a coalition of the unwilling. The Kremlin will draw the obvious conclusions.
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