Closing summary
It’s 11.20pm Monday in Jamaica and we’re about to close this blog and resume our live coverage later in the evening. Here’s an overview of the key news, and you can read our latest full report here.
Hurricane Melissa intensified into a category 5 storm on Monday as it drew closer to Jamaica, where forecasters expected it to unleash catastrophic flooding, landslides and widespread damage.
The storm was on track to make landfall on Tuesday in Jamaica before coming ashore in Cuba later in the day and then heading toward the Bahamas. It has been blamed for seven deaths in the northern Caribbean as it headed towards Jamaica.
Jamaican prime minister Andrew Holness said in anticipation of the coming damage: “I have been on my knees in prayer.”
Melissa was centred about 155 miles (245km) south-west of Kingston on Monday night local time. The system had maximum sustained winds of 175mph (280km/h) and was moving north-west at 2mph (4km/h), according to the US National Hurricane Centre.
At Melissa’s category 5 strength on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale, it would be the strongest hurricane to hit the island since record-keeping began in 1851.
Parts of eastern Jamaica could see up to 30 inches (76cm) of rain while western Haiti could get 16 inches (40cm), the hurricane centre said, citing the likelihood of “catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides”. Jamaica faced “multiple life-threatening hazards”, it said. Among them was up to 13 feet (four metres) of storm surge inundation on parts of the south coast.
Mandatory evacuations were ordered in flood-prone communities in Jamaica, with buses ferrying people to safe shelter, although some people insisted on staying. Several towns on Jamaica’s southern coast reported power outages as winds picked up throughout the night.
Jamaican government officials said they were worried that fewer than 1,000 people were in the more than 130 shelters open across the island.
In eastern Cuba, a hurricane warning was in effect for the Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantánamo and Holguin provinces, while a tropical storm warning was in effect for Las Tunas. Up to 20 inches (51cm) of rain was forecast for parts of Cuba, along with a significant storm surge along the coast.
Cuban officials said they would evacuate more than 600,000 people from the region, including Santiago, the island’s second-largest city. Long bus lines formed in some areas.
With agencies
Updated
Agence France-Presse has also spoken to some residents of Jamaica as Hurricane Melissa bears down on the island. Jamal Peters, a 34-year-old front manager at a hotel in Port Royal, is staying put during the storm.
“Jamaicans on the whole aren’t the type of people who would just get up and leave their home,” Peters said.
“They’d prefer to stay. And if a window blows out or something like that they can be there.”
Peters took up his post last month, and so far preparations at the 63-room waterfront hotel have involved moving guests to higher floors, battening down wherever possible, trimming trees and clearing out boats.
“We are still bracing for impact,” he said.
But for the most part, because this is not our first hurricane, Jamaicans would have been prepared for what’s to come.
Updated
Continuing with St Elizabeth resident Jason Henzell, who is chairman of a hotel in Treasure Beach in southern Jamaica: he said that despite his efforts to “lead by example” and encourage other residents to leave the area and seek shelter elsewhere, some have chosen to remain.
Natricia Duncan and Anthony Lugg report that Henzell said he believed there would be a mandatory evacuation order at some point. He also expected there to be an order to evacuate patients from the Black River hospital, which is extremely vulnerable because it is right on the coast.
Many of those who remained, he said, were holding on to their faith in God.
Henzell said:
Jamaicans are very deep in their faith. And I don’t say that as a means of mockery, I mean it with a tremendous amount of sincerity and respect. So, as a people, we [tend] to think that we can pray something away. And for the most part, we have been spared.
So there is a feeling as though the Lord is going to protect us. He’s going to take [the hurricane] into a different direction. And that faith and belief has saved us on many occasions. But you know … at some point, the luck is going to run out, the blessings are going to run out.
And I just, I hope and pray this is not that day. But it is looking like it is that day.
Updated
More here from Natricia Duncan and Anthony Lugg, reporting from Jamaica as the hurricane nears:
St Elizabeth resident Jason Henzell, who is chairman of Jakes Hotel in Treasure Beach, a popular tourist destination, said he decided to leave his home and relocate his family to Kingston as he saw the effects of the storm.
He told the Guardian:
Based on what I saw in Treasure Beach earlier today and the fact that this is now a hurricane-level category five, and that the new projection is that it’s going to make landfall between Treasure Beach and Black River, I took the decision to relocate to Kingston.
People that don’t live on the south, on the coast, they don’t understand storm surge. It is when the entire sea gets much higher. And I was estimating that we were seeing a storm surge of about three to four metres and then probably three-metre waves on top of that. So you’re looking at an increase of the top of a wave being about 18 feet [5.5 metres], which is very threatening to our coastal erosion, very threatening to any type of structure which is right on the coast.
Updated
'I’m really scared,' says author in high-risk area amid early damage
Natricia Duncan and Anthony Lugg, who are in Jamaica and reporting for the Guardian, have been speaking to people readying as Hurricane Melissa approaches and have filed this:
Publisher and author Ava Brown, who owns the annual Black River film festival, is currently in St Elizabeth, which is expected to be one of the worst-affected areas.
The single mother said that, despite taking every possible precaution, she was scared.
I am a single mom so I had one of my neighbours help me to batten down my windows. We had to move certain things away from the house. I chopped down banana trees just because if they are rooted up you lose them, but if you chop them, they can spring back up again.
Brown said she was stocked up with extra food and other essentials.
But I’m really scared. It’s scary because, for example, you worry about how to ration the food.
At the moment, we have a lot of wind, heavy rains, flooding and trees are falling down. There have also been unconfirmed news that some buildings have already lost their roofs. I know that my parents, which is 10 minutes from here, haven’t had electricity since morning.
You feel scared because if it’s like this at the moment and the storm has not fully arrived, can you imagine when it really shows up?
Brown, who spends time between the UK and Jamaica, was planning to return to Britain on Wednesday but says that that is now very unlikely.
Updated
Here are some of the latest images coming in from Jamaica as people prepare for the expected arrival of Hurricane Melissa in full force on Tuesday.
Up to four-metre Jamaican storm surges forecast
Continuing with the update from Dr Michael Brennan, the US National Hurricane Center’s Miami director said Melissa could also cause up to 13 feet (four metres) of storm surge inundation on parts of Jamaica’s south coast.
With the storm’s centre forecast to reach Jamaica’s coast sometime early Tuesday, destructive winds were expected in Melissa’s eyewall as it made landfall and moved across the island.
Brennan said:
So we could have complete damage, destruction of shelters, homes and buildings in the path of that eyewall, not just along the coast but in areas of high terrain across the central part of the island as the centre of Melissa moves across the island during the day on Tuesday ...
Everyone in Jamaica needs to be in their safe place now to ride out the storm all the way through tomorrow.
We’re also very concerned about the potential for life-threatening storm surge inundation near and to the right of where the centre crosses the south coast early tomorrow, with the potential for nine to 13 feet [2.7 to 4 metres] of inundation...
We’re also expecting destructive wave action along the coast as well, and significant storm surge all the way well east of the centre, over in the Kingston area.
Updated
The head of the US National Hurricane Center in Miami gave an update about three hours ago on Hurricane Melissa’s movements as it was located about 140 miles (225km) south-west of Kingston, Jamaica, with maximum sustained winds of about 175 mph.
Looking at a live map, Dr Michael Brennan said:
You see a well-defined eye here in satellite imagery. And Melissa has started to move a little more to the north now – the motion is around north-west at about 3 miles per hour. If you remember earlier today it was moving west, so we’re starting to see that turn to the north and then the north north-east – it’s going the bring the centre of Melissa to the south coast of Jamaica early Tuesday morning.
“Multiple life-threatening hazards” were in play for the island, Brennan said in his update, which was streamed on YouTube.
Updated
Melissa set to bring 'catastrophic' threat, agency warns
Hurricane Melissa is expected to bring “catastrophic and life-threatening winds, flooding and storm surge to Jamaica” later on Monday and on Tuesday, the US National Hurricane Center has just warned in a post on social media.
It’s now 7.09pm local time Monday on the island.
The category 5 storm is on track to make landfall on Tuesday before reaching Cuba later in the day and then heading towards the Bahamas.
As the Guardian has reported, the Meteorological Service of Jamaica’s director is warning that no part of Jamaica is likely be spared Melissa’s deadly combination of rapid intensification and snail-paced advance.
Evan Thompson also said the rapid strengthening was notable:
That is something that would not always happen, and this is usually indicative of the kind of warm waters that we’re experiencing that we believe is somewhat related to climate change.
Updated
AI-generated videos have been clogging social media feeds as Hurricane Melissa heads towards Jamaica, diverting attention from critical safety information about the storm.
Agence France-Presse reports it has surfaced dozens of fakes, most bearing watermarks for OpenAI’s text-to-video model Sora. The videos depicted a range of fabricated scenarios, from dramatic newscasts and shots of severe flooding to images of sharks in the water as well as poignant scenes of human suffering.
Others appeared to show locals – often voiced with strong Jamaican accents that seemed aimed at reinforcing stereotypes – partying, boating, jet skiing, swimming or otherwise minimising the threat of what forecasters have warned could be the island’s most violent weather on record.
Jamaica’s information minister, Senator Dana Morris Dixon, said she and other ministers were jointly taking part in a Monday press conference to give “correct information” about the approaching monster storm.
Dixon said:
I am in so many WhatsApp groups, and I see all of these videos coming. Many of them are fake. And so we urge you to please listen to the official channels.
Updated
More reporting here from Natricia Duncan and Anthony Lugg speaking to people in Jamaica already affected by Hurricane Melissa before it makes landfall.
Farmer Leslie Burton, who also lives in Portland, has been without power.
“Some of the little things in my refrigerator I have to dispose of, and my neighbours are in the same problem,” he told the Guardian, also saying he was concerned about his animals.
“I tried to put some zinc over them but the breeze blew them away,” he said, adding that he had to find a way to protect them, because they were his livelihood.
I do all the preparations even for my house but now I just have to hope for the best.
A fellow resident, shop-owner Maria Douglas, is also without electricity. “My ice-cream is melting. I have to be giving them away as well as drinks,” she said. “The meat is still frozen but I’m not sure how long those will last, so it’s gonna be a big loss.
We didn’t expect the electricity to go off so early otherwise we could have been better organised.
If the hurricane doesn’t reach here yet and we are in this situation, I don’t know what’s going to happen when it actually reaches.
The Guardian’s Natricia Duncan and Anthony Lugg, who are on the ground in Jamaica, report:
Residents across the country say they are scared as updates predict worst-case scenarios and the effects of the storm begin to be felt, even before it lands in Jamaica.
Desrick Kenton, a resident from Portland in the north-east coast, said the rattling of his zinc roof convinced him to head to a shelter.
Speaking to the Guardian from inside the shelter, he said:
When I heard my zinc rattling in the night, I said ‘in the name of Jesus Christ of Nazareth’, not another minute, and I grabbed my suitcase and say I’m heading to the Manchioneal primary school shelter.
Asked why he thinks there are people in the community who are refusing to move, he said:
The spirit of God has to touch some of the people before they move. But I tell them despite the fact you may have a concrete structure, it doesn’t matter, if you are living in a low-lying area, sort out yourself and move out to the best shelter.
Updated
The hurricane's rapid intensification is linked to the climate crisis
The extraordinary intensification of Hurricane Melissa, set to be one of the strongest storms to ever hit Jamaica, is probably a symptom of the rapid heating of the world’s oceans, scientists have said.
Scientists say this is the fourth storm in the Atlantic this year to undergo rapid intensification of its wind speed and power. This sort of intensification has been linked to the human-caused climate crisis, which is causing oceans to become hotter.
“That part of the Atlantic is extremely warm right now – around 30C [86F], which is 2 to 3C above normal,” said Akshay Deoras, a meteorologist at the University of Reading, in the United Kingdom. “And it’s not just the surface. The deeper layers of the ocean are also unusually warm, providing a vast reservoir of energy for the storm.”
Last year, the world’s oceans were the warmest on record, continuing a recent trend of record-breaking marine heat. Climate Central, a climate non-profit, has said that the extra heat in the Atlantic has been made about 700 times more likely due to the burning of fossil fuels, deforestation and other human activities.
“Climate change is fundamentally changing our weather,” said Bernadette Woods Placky, chief meteorologist at Climate Central, a US-based research group.
“It does not mean that every single tropical cyclone is going to go through rapid or super-rapid intensification. However, in our warmer world, it will continue to increase the likelihood of storms going through rapid and super-rapid intensification,” she added.
A 2023 study had found that Atlantic hurricanes are now more than twice as likely as before to intensify rapidly from minor storms to powerful and catastrophic events.
Jamaicans take shelter as Hurricane Melissa turns toward Jamaica's south coast
The Guardian’s Natricia Duncan and Anthony Lugg in Jamaica report:
Jamaicans have started to take shelter from Hurricane Melissa as high winds topple trees and cause power cuts ahead of the category 5 storm making landfall on Tuesday.
The slow-moving giant, the strongest hurricane to hit the island since records began in 1851, is increasing in intensity and forecast to linger over the island. Authorities fear it will unleash catastrophic flooding, landslides and extensive infrastructure damage.
In the south-western parish of St Elizabeth, winds are already becoming ferocious, with one tree falling on to electricity poles and knocking out power.
The parish also borne the brunt of Hurricane Beryl, which caused historic levels of destruction in St Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada and Jamaica last year. Some people say they have only recently completed work on their properties after Beryl.
The director of the Meteorological Service of Jamaica, Evan Thompson, has been warning that no part of the island is likely be spared Melissa’s deadly combination of rapid intensification and snail-paced advance.
“If it continues as projected in terms of the turn toward the island, we should therefore on Tuesday look for the hurricane force winds starting to impact southern coastal areas and then gradually spreading as the system moves closer to the coastline,” he said
The employees at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) – who are forecasting and modeling Melissa’s path – are currently not being paid amid the US government shutdown.
Although the National Weather Service – which includes the NHC – serve “critical functions” per the commerce department, and will continue to operate at full capacity during the shutdown, the agency’s employees will not receive paychecks until the shutdown is over.
Jamaica PM warns of 'significant' impact of hurricane
Jamaica’s prime minister Andrew Holnes said he doesn’t believe that “any infrastructure within this region that could withstand a Category 5 storm, so there could be significant dislocation.”
In an interview with CNN, he said: “I urge all Jamaicans and people who are friendly well-wishers of Jamaica, to continue to pray that this hurricane does not hit us directly.”
Updated
Hurricane Melissa has begun its long anticipated slow turn towards the north, and is positioning itself for a direct hit on Jamaica’s south coast early on Tuesday, the director of the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has said in a Monday afternoon update.
Dr Mike Brennan said the slow-moving storm was about 140 miles south west of Kingston, Jamaica, at 5pm ET, and crawling towards the north west at about 3mph.
“Earlier today [it] was moving west, so we’re starting to see that turn to the north, and then the north northeast,” he said in a video briefing on YouTube.
“It’s going to bring the center of Melissa to the south coast of Jamaica early Tuesday morning. We’re expecting destructive winds in the eye wall of Melissa as it makes landfall and moves across the island, so we can have complete damage, destruction of shelters, homes and buildings in the path of that eye wall, not just along the coast, but in areas of high terrain across the central part of the island.”
Brennan said he expected nine to 13 feet of storm surge inundation, “destructive wave action along the coast” to beyond Kingston, and the potential for up to 30 inches of rain.
“Everyone in Jamaica needs to be in their safe place now to ride out the storm all the way through tomorrow,” he said.
Despite funding cuts to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the ongoing government shutdown, the NHC has promised to maintain a full operation during the storm, including regular website updates, video briefings such as the one Brennan just gave, and regular appearances on television and radio networks to keep people informed.
'As prepared as possible': Jamaica energy minister discusses hurricane's imminent landfall
The Guardian’s Anthony Lugg and Natricia Duncan in Jamaica have been speaking exclusively this afternoon with Daryl Vaz, the country’s minister for energy, science, telecommunications and transport.
He tells my colleagues that Jamaica is “as prepared as possible” for landfall early Tuesday of category 5 Hurricane Melissa.
“I’m not sure that anyone or any country can prepare for category 5. But in terms of what we have put in place, we are comfortable that we are ready to receive the effects of the hurricane,” he said.
Vaz also said that there has been an increase in evacuations, after concerns that residents in hurricane vulnerable locations were refusing to leave their homes.
“Over the last hour we have moved from 140 evacuations to 315 and I expect that number to increase rapidly during today,” he told the Guardian.
Vaz said that lessons have been learnt from Hurricane Beryl, which devastated parts of the island last July.
“When we compare ourselves to readiness in comparison to Beryl, it will be a significant improvement,” he said, adding that upgrades were the result of recommendations made after a review ordered by prime minister Andrew Holness.
Vaz said that additional technicians have been brought in from overseas to assist with restoration of power after Hurricane Melissa.
“They have 550 persons pre-positioned across the island to assist with the restoration. And of course, most importantly, they are working very closely with the telecommunication (companies) and the National Water Commission,” he added.
Updated
5pm ET update: Melissa still at 175mph, closing in on Jamaica's southern coast
The National Hurricane Center in Miami has just released its 5pm ET advisory on Hurricane Melissa, and there’s very little for people in its forecast path to take comfort from.
The storm’s maximum sustained winds remain at 175mph, maintaining its elevation earlier Monday to a potentially devastating category 5 monster that is set to slam into Jamaica’s southern coast early on Tuesday.
“It is unlikely that Melissa will weaken significantly before reaching Jamaica, and there is no practical difference in Melissa making landfall at category 4 or 5 intensity, since both categories produce catastrophic wind damage,” Dr Jack Beven, the NHC’s senior hurricane specialist, wrote in an accompanying discussion.
“Catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides are expected through Tuesday. The eyewall’s destructive winds may cause total structural failure, particularly in higher elevations, leading to widespread infrastructural damage, prolonged power and communication outages, and isolated communities.
“Along the southern coast, life-threatening storm surge and damaging waves are anticipated through Tuesday.”
The news is little better for Cuba and the Bahamas, even though Beven said he expected Melissa’s intensity to weaken slightly over Jamaica’s mountainous terrain.
In eastern Cuba, he said: “Heavy rainfall with life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and landslides is expected to begin tonight. Life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds are expected late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Preparations should be rushed to completion.”
As for the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos islands, he said, “hurricane conditions, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall” are expected Wednesday.
Dr Michael Brennan, director of the NHC, will deliver a live briefing about the storm on the center’s YouTube page at 5.15pm ET.
Bahamas prime minister Philip Davis ordered evacuations for people in southern and eastern parts of the archipelago, while much of eastern Cuba battened down ahead of Hurricane Melissa’s expected landfall, Reuters reports.
Cuban authorities said they had evacuated upwards of 500,000 people living in coastal and mountainous areas vulnerable to heavy winds and flooding, and canceled schools and transport across eastern Cuba.
More than 250,000 people were brought to shelters around Santiago de Cuba, the island’s second-largest city, which lies squarely in the crosshairs of the hurricane’s predicted path.
On the storm’s current forecast track, Melissa will be crossing eastern Cuba on Tuesday night, and traversing the south-eastern Bahamas about 24 hours later before heading north east into the open waters of the Atlantic.
Haiti and the Dominican Republic will be spared a direct hit, but the island of Hispaniola, which the two countries share, will be affected by high winds, storm surge and torrential rain, sparking flooding fears. On Monday afternoon the island’s west coast was under a tropical storm warning.
Residents in Jamaica have been telling reporters for the Associated Press they have no fear for the approaching storm, and were defying a mandatory evacuation order:
‘I hear what they say, but I am not leaving,’ Noel Francis, a 64-year-old fisherman who lives on the beach in the southern town of Old Harbor Bay, where he was born and grew up. ‘I can manage myself.’
His neighbor, Bruce Dawkins, said he also had no plans to leave his home.
‘I am not going anywhere,’ Dawkins said, wearing a raincoat and holding a beer in his hand. The fisherman said he had already secured his vessel and planned to ride out the storm with his friend.
Several towns along Jamaica’s southern coast already reported power outages as winds picked up throughout the night.‘I don’t think the storm will damage my house. My only concern is flooding, because we live near the sea,’ said Hyacinth White, 49, who said she had no plans to evacuate to a shelter.
Hurricane Melissa, which by Monday afternoon had maximum sustained winds of 175mph, is forecast to be the most powerful storm to hit Jamaica in 174 years. More than 50,000 customers in Jamaica were already without electricity, the AP reported, a day before the storm’s landfall.
Minister: Jamaica shelters 'safe and secure'
One of the the Jamaican government’s biggest worries for Hurricane Melissa, apart from the devastation the monster storm will cause, is crime, particularly looting.
A number of residents of Kingston, and elsewhere on the island, have already said they are reluctant to head to hurricane shelters for fear of crime, and for their personal safety.
Desmond McKenzie, minister of local government and community development, said he was aware of the reports, and attempted to reassure citizens that the country’s 881 emergency shelters were secure, safe spaces, telling the Jamaica Observer:
Men and women are housed separately, except where whole families are being accommodated at the shelter. The shelters are clean and are provisioned with all necessary supplies to ensure that all hygienic and public health standards are maintained.
Additionally, the police will be patrolling the various spaces before and after the hurricane. I urge you not to be crippled by fear, or discouraged by rumours.
Prime minister Andrew Holness addressed looting fears at a press briefing on Monday:
I’m sufficiently satisfied that the security forces are properly deployed in such a way as to prevent any break in law and order.
Whenever there is any kind of disaster there will always be that element in our society who is not a part of the common good and has no concern for their neighbour. Stay inside, that’s the safest place to be and gives less work for the security forces, [to deal with] looting and other kinds of anti-social behavior.
Situations of uncertainty lead to panic, and it can lead people to deviant behavior.
Kingston webcams show lull before the storm
Live webcams in central Kingston show a wet, windy day on Monday afternoon as deadly Hurricane Melissa inches closer to a devastating landfall somewhere along Jamaica’s south coast early on Tuesday.
The images, streamed by See Jamaica Live, show only a handful of vehicles on usually busy streets, with very few pedestrians. Another camera showing the city’s famous Half Way Tree clock tower is here.
At an emergency briefing earlier on Monday, the country’s prime minister, Andrew Holness, urged residents to stay off the streets.
“We urge persons to stay inside,” he said.
“Stay within the precincts of your home. Don’t venture outside unnecessarily, because the winds can pick up at any time, the rains can come, you can be caught in a flash flood. Stay inside. That’s the safest place to be at the moment.”
Updated
AccuWeather: Hurricane Melissa a 'dire situation unfolding in slow motion'
Hurricane experts say Melissa’s slow meander through the Caribbean will cause considerably more damage, and have farther reaching effects than faster-paced storms.
As of Monday lunchtime, the National Hurricane Center in Miami reported, Melissa was on a west-northwesterly track at only 3mph. It will eventually speed up as it turn north, then northeast, but the storm – currently with maximum sustained winds of 175mph – is not forecast to emerge from the south-eastern Bahamas and into the open Atlantic until Wednesday night.
“This is a dire situation unfolding in slow motion. A major hurricane slowly crawling toward an island with powerful winds, extreme rainfall, and damaging storm surge is a perilous situation for a place like Jamaica,” AccuWeather’s chief meteorologist Jonathan Porter said in a statement.
“Slow-moving major hurricanes often go down in history as some of the deadliest and most destructive storms on record. Tens of thousands of families are facing hours of extreme wind gusts above 100mph and days of relentless, torrential rainfall.
“A storm surge of 10 to 15ft in the hardest hit areas along the southern coast of Jamaica will risk lives and result in property destruction. Additionally, a storm surge of 6 to 10ft could damage or destroy critical infrastructure along the bays and shorelines near Kingston.”
Further north in the Atlantic, the island of Bermuda lies in the center of Hurricane Melissa’s forecast path, with the storm expected to arrive in the early hours of Friday. Its premier, E David Burt, issued a message of “heartfelt support” on Monday to the people of Jamaica “during this time of uncertainty”:
Bermuda stands united with our Jamaican friends and neighbours, and we offer our steadfast support during this challenging time.
From our shared Caribbean heritage to the vibrant Jamaican community here in Bermuda, we are connected by family, friendship, and culture. The bond between our two countries is strong and runs deep.
I have reached out to Prime Minister [Andrew] Holness and expressed our thoughts and our concern and confirmed that the government of Bermuda stands ready to offer our assistance where possible.
Updated
Summary of the day so far
Islanders are nervously awaiting landfall of category 5 Hurricane Melissa in Jamaica early on Tuesday, even though strong winds and heavy rains are already buffeting the south coast and inland areas.
Here’s what we’ve been following so far:
Officials say the hurricane, one of the strongest ever recorded in the Caribbean, has “the ingredients to be a catastrophic storm”. Liz Stephens, professor in climate risks and resilience at University of Reading, said: “Communities in Jamaica will need to prepare for potentially unimaginable impacts, and with climate change fuelling stronger storms with higher rainfall totals, this is a stark example for other countries as to what may be in store for them.”
At least six deaths have already been attributed to the storm. Three people were killed in Haiti and another in the Dominican Republic, where another person remains missing, according to the Associated Press. Two people died in Jamaica over the weekend as they cut trees ahead of the storm.
Emergency evacuations have been under way in vulnerable areas of Jamaica for many hours, even though officials warn no area of the island will be immune to Melissa’s 157mph+ winds, combined with its potentially deadly storm surge.
Andrew Holness, the prime minster of Jamaica, told an emergency briefing in Kingston on Monday, that residents were turning up at some of his country’s 881 hurricane shelters only to find them locked. “We have to strengthen this part of our preparedness, of getting the shelter managers to not wait until someone is coming. Once we activate the shelter, it should be open and ready for persons to come in, even if no one comes,” he said.
Jamaica’s two international airports have been closed since Sunday. Desmond McKenzie, the minister of local government, warned: “Many communities will not survive the flooding. Kingston is extremely low. No community in Kingston is immune.”
After moving north through Jamaica on Tuesday, Melissa will set its sights on Cuba on Tuesday night, and then the south-eastern Bahamas on Wednesday. The National Hurricane Center in Miami on Monday issued a hurricane warning for most of eastern Cuba, including the provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantánamo and Holguin; and a hurricane watch is in place for the Turks and Caicos islands and south-eastern Bahamas.
Updated
Holness: residents finding some hurricane shelters locked
Residents of Jamaica fleeing to shelters as Hurricane Melissa bears down on the island have been turning up to find themselves locked out, the country’s Prime Minister Andrew Holness has just told an emergency briefing in Kingston.
Holness said officials needed to make “greater effort” to protect the public during and after the category 5 storm, which is expected to make landfall on the south coast early on Tuesday. He said 881 shelters were expected to be operational, but that there were “areas of concern”:
I am monitoring reports that persons have turned up at the shelters… but, for example, they can’t find the person who should open the shelter with the key. They know it should happen, but they’re just not on spot.
We have to strengthen this part of our preparedness, of getting the shelter managers to not wait until someone is coming. Once we activate the shelter, it should be open and ready for persons to come in, even if no one comes.
Holness was speaking at the headquarters of Jamaica’s office of disaster preparedness and emergency management (Opdem). He said crews were scrambling to ensure sufficient food was available in the shelters:
The government is not telling you that everything is perfect. There is no plan that is perfect except the plan of God, and man is fallible, so errors will be made. But that is not an excuse.
In a time of disaster, we must take a zero fail approach to the systems that we are building. So in as much as I’m talking to the public, I’m also talking to the heads of the institutions that are gathered here. Make greater effort to ensure that there is zero fail in our operations.
Here is a graphic that shows the probability of hurricane-force winds across a five-day forecast:
Hanna Mcleod, a 23-year-old hotel receptionist in the Jamaican capital of Kingston, said she will have to work during the hurricane, but that her husband and brother will be at her house, where they boarded the windows and she left candles and flashlights scattered throughout.
“I just told them to keep the door closed,” she told the Associated Press. “I am definitely worried. This is actually the first time I’ll be experiencing this type of hurricane.”
Mcleod said she bought her favorite canned food, corned beef, but that other members of her family prefer mackerel, “so I got a lot of those.”
On Sunday, Jamaica’s prime minister Andrew Holness said that the country has a sound strategy to ensure speedy recovery from the storm.
As he reiterated the serious nature of the threat and urged people to heed life-saving advice to seek shelter and evacuate the most threatened area, he asked the predominantly Christian nation to pray.
“Reach out to your neighbour, check on the elderly, check on persons with disabilities, and anyone who may need help. That is who we are, a people who live by the principle, each one, help one. While we must prepare for the worst, let us also pray for the best. In every adversity, we have found strength, not only in our resilience, but in the power of prayer.
“Wherever you are, I encourage you to gather your family and pray for protection, for calm, and for each other, trusting that God, who has seen Jamaica through every storm, will carry us safely through this one too.
“My Jamaican family, we will weather this storm, and when the sky is clear, we will come together to restore and build stronger, prouder, and more resilient than before. Keep safe everyone, may God bless you, protect your families, and keep safe our beloved Jamaica land we love,” he said.
Thompson also blamed the rapid intensification of the hurricane to climate change.
He said: “Moving from a category one hurricane to a category 4 and possibly becoming a category 5 hurricane by the time we go through tonight. That is something that would not always happen and this is usually indicative of the kind of warm waters that we’re experiencing that we believe is somewhat related to climate change.
“We can’t attribute everything to climate change but many of the things that we are seeing with the blow up of the system and it occurring more frequently from year to year, I think is a good sign that something is changing with our climate and it’s quite likely because of some of the activities that we as humans are engaged in,” he said.
Here are some more photos from Jamaica as Hurricane Melissa approaches the island:
Principal director of the Meteorological Service of Jamaica, Evan Thompson has been warning that it is likely that no part of Jamaica will be spared from the effects of the monster hurricane, whose deadly combination of rapid intensification and snail-paced advancement is a recipe for a catastrophic, record-breaking natural disaster.
“If it continues as projected in terms of the turn toward the island we should therefore on Tuesday look for the hurricane force winds starting to impact southern coastal areas and then gradually spreading as the system moves closer to the coastline. Then we will have intense shower activity surrounding the eye - so mainly in the western part of the island and extending over central parish as well,” he said.
He expects the centre to be off the northern coastline on Wednesday and to start to move away but the rainfall should continue over much of the island, he said.
Thompson said that it is too soon to say that slow-moving, intense hurricanes is an emerging trend in the Caribbean.
“It happened with hurricane Dorian in 2019 and others where we had systems slow to a halt. “This one really has been moving so slowly for a long time but I don’t believe it’s a trend, (it’s) just how this situation has turned out.”
Dorian had reached record wind speed of 185 mph, causing billions of dollars worth of destruction in the Bahamas and claiming 78 lives, with at least 282 people who were never accounted for, according to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.
On Saturday the Guardian spoke with residents in Port Royal, a small fishing village in Kingston. Before a 1692 earthquake submerged most of it, it was one of the biggest cities in the Caribbean. Today, it is considered one of the most hurricane vulnerable communities and is on the compulsory evacuation list.
But residents said they were confident they were prepared to face the hurricane and did not want to move because they do not feel safe in shelters, where their belongings could be stolen and women were at risk.
The Guardian has also heard, but has not been able to confirm, that people have turned up to shelters that were supposed to be activated but found that they were closed.
“I think many of those residents need an assurance that there is going to be some kind of watch over their properties, their assets. They don’t want to leave and come back and can’t find it and I believe that’s one of the main things is the attachment they have.
“So if we can assure them that there will be systems in place to ensure they do not suffer that kind of consequence I think more would be encouraged to move,” principal director of the Meteorological Service of Jamaica, Evan Thompson told the Guardian.
Thompson has been warning that it is likely that no part of Jamaica will be spared from the effects of the monster hurricane, whose deadly combination of rapid intensification and snail-paced advancement is a recipe for a catastrophic, record-breaking natural disaster.
Here is an updated satellite image of the hurricane’s possible route:
Hurricane Melissa has 'ingredients to be a catastrophic storm', expert warns
Liz Stephens, professor in climate risks and resilience at University of Reading, said:
Having now intensified to Category 5, slow-moving Hurricane Melissa has all the ingredients to be a catastrophic storm, with devastating storm-surge, extreme winds and unusually high rainfall accumulations.
“Communities in Jamaica will need to prepare for potentially unimaginable impacts, and with climate change fuelling stronger storms with higher rainfall totals, this is a stark example for other countries as to what may be in store for them,” Stephens added.
As we mentioned in an earlier post, category 5 is the highest category on the Saffir-Simpson scale, which means sustained winds exceeding 157 mph (250 kph).
Hurricane Melissa would be the strongest hurricane in recorded history to directly hit Jamaica, according to Jonathan Porter, chief meteorologist at AccuWeather.
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Some areas in eastern Jamaica could see up to 40 inches (1 metre) of rain while western Haiti could get 16 inches (40 centimetres), according to the hurricane centre.
“Catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides are likely,” it warned.
Mandatory evacuations were ordered in seven flood-prone communities in Jamaica, with buses ferrying people to safe shelter.
The slow-moving storm has killed at least three people in Haiti and a fourth person in the Dominican Republic, where another person remains missing.
“I want to urge Jamaicans to take this seriously,” said Desmond McKenzie, deputy chairman of Jamaica’s Disaster Risk Management Council.
“Do not gamble with Melissa. It’s not a safe bet.”
There is an eerie calm in New Kingston, Jamaica, as residents wake up to the news that rapidly intensifying Melissa has been upgraded to the highest possible category of the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale, which means sustained winds exceeding 157 mph (250 kph).
The modern commercial district, which houses corporate headquarters, government offices and embassies, including the British High Commission, has so far been quiet, apart from sporadic bursts of rain and moderate wind.
But we know what is coming. Each terrifying update promises Jamaica never-before experienced levels of destruction with copious amounts of rains, life-threatening flash floods and winds that could demolish entire buildings.
In other parts of the island the effects are already being felt. Over in Treasure Beach, St Elizabeth, a prime tourist spot, it’s already extremely windy. The parish was one that bore the brunt of Hurricane Beryl, which caused historic levels of destruction to St Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada and Jamaica last year. Some people in the parish have only just recently completed work on their properties and are still traumatised from the wrath of Beryl.
The main concern for officials is getting people in coastal, low-lying, flood-prone, exposed and other vulnerable areas into the almost 900 shelters activated.
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In Haiti, the storm destroyed crops in three regions, including 15 hectares (37 acres) of maize at a time when at least 5.7 million people, more than half of the country’s population, is experiencing crisis levels of hunger, with 1.9 million of those facing emergency levels of hunger.
The poorest country in the Americas, Haiti has long suffered at the hands of violent criminal gangs against a backdrop of chronic political instability.
The situation has worsened significantly since early 2024, when gangs drove then-prime minister, Ariel Henry, to resign. The country, which has not held elections since 2016, has since been led by a transitional presidential council.
The storm already has dropped heavy rain in the Dominican Republic, where schools and government offices were ordered to remain closed on Monday in four of nine provinces still under red alert.
Melissa damaged more than 750 homes across the country, displacing more than 3,760 people, according to the Associated Press. Flood waters also have cut access to at least 48 communities, officials said.
If you’ve been affected by Hurricane Melissa, we’d like to hear from you if it’s safe for you to get in touch:
After passing over Jamaica, Hurricane Melissa is expected to move north and cross over eastern Cuba tomorrow evening, before heading across the south-eastern Bahamas on Wednesday.
Melissa could be the strongest hurricane Jamaica has experienced in decades, said Evan Thompson, principal director at Jamaica’s meteorological service.
He warned that cleanup and damage assessment would be severely delayed because of anticipated landslides, flooding and blocked roads.
Melissa is the 13th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which typically runs from June to November.
'Many communities will not survive the flooding,' official says as Hurricane Melissa barrels towards Jamaica
My colleagues Natricia Duncan and Anthony Lugg have some details about the advice officials are giving to residents in Jamaica in anticipation of Melissa and explain why this hurricane is expected to be so powerful. Here is an extract from their story, which was written with the help of news agency reporting:
During a press conference in Kingston on Sunday, Jamaican authorities said both international airports were closed and 881 shelters had been activated.
“Many of these communities will not survive the flooding,” said Desmond McKenzie, the minister of local government. “Kingston is extremely low. No community in Kingston is immune.”
Jamaica’s prime minister, Andrew Holness, later ordered mandatory evacuation orders for Port Royal in Kingston and six other vulnerable areas across the country including Old Harbour Bay …
The combination of rapid intensification and snail-paced advancement is a recipe for a catastrophic, record-breaking natural disaster, experts said.
In its increasingly grim updates, the hurricane centre warned that extensive damage to infrastructure, power and communication outages and the isolation of communities in Jamaica were to be expected.
The slow-moving storm has already killed at least three people in Haiti and one person in the Dominican Republic, where another person remains missing.
Hurricane Melissa strengthens to category 5 as it moves towards Jamaica
Hurricane Melissa has intensified to a Category 5 storm as it nears Jamaica, bringing the potential of life-threatening flash flooding and landslides.
A category five hurricane is the strongest type, with winds of at least 157mph.
On Monday, the US National Hurricane Center reported that the hurricane is expected to make landfall on the island on Tuesday, bringing destructive winds and up to 30 inches of rain.
The US National Hurricane Centre said Melissa was then expected to reach Cuba on Tuesday night and head across the south-eastern Bahamas on Wednesday.
Over the weekend, the Cuban government issued a hurricane watch for the provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantánamo and Holguin.
The hurricane centre urged Jamaicans to seek shelter immediately, with its deputy director warning: “Conditions [in Jamaica] are going to go down rapidly today. Be ready to ride this out for several days.”
The government later ordered mandatory evacuation orders for Port Royal in Kingston and six other vulnerable areas across the island including Old Harbour Bay.
Melissa was expected to drop up to 30 inches (76cm) of rain on Jamaica and southern Hispaniola – Haiti and the Dominican Republic – according to the hurricane centre.
Some areas may see as much as 40 inches (1 metre). Extensive damage to infrastructure, power and communication outages could be expected.
Stay with us as we bring you the latest updates.
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