Humza Yousaf has a narrow lead over Kate Forbes in the SNP leadership race, according to the first poll of party members since Nicola Sturgeon announced her decision to stand down.
But the survey by Savanta also found a third of Nationalists are still undecided on who to support when voting opens on March 13.
The poll found 32 per cent of SNP members were undecided, while 31 per cent were backing health secretary Yousaf, 25 per cent supporting finance secretary Forbes and 11 per cent opting for Ash Regan.
When undecided voters are removed, Yousaf leads on 46 per cent, with Forbes on 37 per cent and Regan 17 per cent.
Chris Hopkins, political research director at Savanta, said: "This first poll of SNP members really indicates that the race to replace Nicola Sturgeon is too close to call.
"While Humza Yousaf narrowly leads Kate Forbes, with such a high proportion of undecided voters, it’s difficult to be able to say definitively who is really in the lead.
"There is a small indication that undecided voters may break for Yousaf, with male members more likely to break for Forbes, and women making up a higher proportion of undecided voters at the moment, but it’s also hard to know for sure to what extent gender is a key driver for vote intention among SNP members.
"Removing undecided voters to give a headline voting intention still puts Yousaf short of the 50% threshold required, and therefore he would require some of Ash Regan’s votes to transfer to him to be elected leader.
"It does appear from these figures that Ash Regan’s race is run, barring any major changes between now and the announcement, but where the second preferences of her supporters go could end up being pivotal in a race that, on this evidence, could go down to the wire.
"SNP members are, of course, difficult to poll, and it’s impossible to truly know their demographic make-up.
"However, using academic research into party membership in the UK that is available, it is possible to estimate how the SNP’s membership is comprised, and therefore this is a unique first look at what actual members who can vote in this leadership election think, rather than polls of SNP voters who do not have a say when electing the leader."
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