- A YouGov MRP poll suggests Plaid Cymru is set to become the largest party in the Welsh Senedd with 43 seats, followed by Nigel Farage’s Reform with 30 seats.
- Labour is projected to suffer a significant collapse, with their vote share dropping by 23 per cent to just 13 per cent, leaving them with an estimated 12 seats.
- The projected result could see Labour's current First Minister of Wales, Eluned Morgan, lose her seat, marking a major blow to Sir Keir Starmer.
- The Greens are expected to make a breakthrough, winning 10 seats for the first time in the Welsh Senedd, potentially forming a progressive government with Plaid Cymru.
- The poll, conducted between 9 and 18 March, also indicates that the Conservatives could be reduced to one seat and the Liberal Democrats to zero in Wales.
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