- The announcement of a US-Iran ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz led to a significant drop in oil prices and a surge in global shares, offering hope for a short-lived energy crisis.
- Oil prices fell 14 per cent to $93.93 a barrel, and gas prices dropped 17 per cent, potentially easing pressure on the UK energy price cap, though jet fuel and petrol prices are expected to remain elevated.
- Despite the ceasefire, the UK faces ongoing inflationary pressures from previous high oil prices, with grocery inflation predicted to hit 9-10 per cent and wider UK inflation potentially reaching 4 per cent by late 2026.
- Expectations for Bank of England interest rate hikes have faded, with a hold at 3.75 per cent now more probable, and mortgage swap rates may decrease, offering some relief for future mortgage deals.
- However, property prices continued to fall in March, influenced by rising swap rates and uncertainty from the conflict, with experts not anticipating a return to pre-conflict oil prices.
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