A recent poll places One Nation neck and neck with the ALP. Pauline Hanson now rivals Anthony Albanese as the preferred prime minister. This should terrify many first-term Labor MPs elected in 2025. The rising orange tide threatens to turn them into one-hit wonders.
However, these numbers should be taken with a large grain of salt. Polls and byelections give disaffected voters an opportunity to vent their spleen without serious consequence.
Elections, on the other hand, have major repercussions. As Paul Keating famously said in 1996: "If you change the government you change the country."
A One Nation government would deliver social division, administrative chaos and disruption to established institutions of Trumpian proportions. Nobody would call Senator Hanson a safe pair of hands.
That said, Labor's huge gamble with its latest budget measures has opened the door even wider for the orange party. It has itself to blame for its current plight.
Trying to curry favour with renters based on the changing demographics of the electorate may prove to be one of the biggest missteps in Australian political history. Changing the negative gearing and capital gains tax rules in order to put downward pressure on housing prices is starting to look like an own goal.
Auction clearance rates are tanking and some pundits are warning property prices could come off by as much as 10 per cent. That's bad news for Labor given owner-occupiers outnumber renters by roughly two to one.
Mr Albanese and Dr Chalmers failed to take into account the sea change in renters' attitudes when they transition into home ownership.
Do they have a contingency plan for the backlash that will occur when existing homeowners realise the value of their most significant asset has taken a big hit because of a policy repeatedly ruled out by the Prime Minister before last year's election?
The most vulnerable cohort of owner-occupiers are the almost 250,000 new entrants who took advantage of Labor's contentious 5 per cent deposit scheme. They could end up owing more to the bank than their houses would sell for.
And, perversely, measures the government said would increase supply could prompt a sellers strike and cause rents to rise significantly more than the Treasury estimates suggest.
All of this adds more fuel to the already high level of frustration with the major parties and has created the opening for One Nation.
That said, the idea that Pauline Hanson is qualified to lead the nation is risible. The senator's claim she avoids Senate Estimates because the Coalition and Labor chairs deny her a fair go is a furphy. Look at the way the two Pococks, one an independent and one a Green, operate so effectively in exactly that space.
And who would form a One Nation cabinet? Barnaby Joyce, whose ministerial career was far from stellar, is the only One Nation MP with government experience.
Senator Hanson has a history of not playing well with others and is already at odds with David Farley over his statement he would fly Indigenous flags outside his electorate offices.
Having tossed her hat into the ring as serious contender for the prime ministership Senator Hanson can only expect even more intense scrutiny - something she does not respond to kindly.
These are all factors voters should be taking into account before polling day arrives. Australia requires serious and mature leadership during what are challenging times.
