Most Republicans believe their party weathered the 2018 storm and brighter days are ahead in 2020. But that perspective doesn’t mean the GOP’s chances of retaking the House are particularly good.
Even if the national political environment isn’t as bad for the GOP as the midterm elections when they lost 40 seats, there’s little evidence that President Donald Trump will dramatically improve his 2016 performance in key competitive House districts in 2020.
That makes it difficult to envision Republicans winning those races, particularly without a stellar candidate. And in some places, such as California and New Jersey, the GOP’s strongest House challengers (including Michelle Steel and Tom Kean Jr.) are running in difficult districts, against strong incumbents, or both.
With a combination of Republicans’ self-inflicted wounds, slow recruiting, or suburbs continuing to shift against the president, Democratic chances of winning improved in a dozen House races in recent weeks. Those rating changes include:
- Arizona’s 6th (David Schweikert, R) Solid Republican to Likely Republican
- California’s 25th (Vacant, D) Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic
- Illinois’ 6th (Sean Casten, D) Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic
- Illinois’ 13th (Rodney Davis, R) Tilt Republican to Toss-up
- Iowa’s 2nd (Open; Dave Loebsack, D) Toss-up to Tilt Democratic
- Iowa’s 4th (Steve King, R) Lean Republican to Tilt Republican
- Michigan’s 8th (Elissa Slotkin, D) Tilt Democratic to Lean Democratic
- Michigan’s 11th (Haley Stevens, D) Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic
- Minnesota’s 1st (Jim Hagedorn, R) Lean Republican to Tilt Republican
- Minnesota’s 2nd (Angie Craig, DFL) Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic
- New Hampshire’s 1st (Chris Pappas, D) Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic
- Virginia’s 2nd (Elaine Luria, D) Tilt Democratic to Lean Democratic
One race shifted toward the GOP: Minnesota’s 7th District (DFL Rep. Collin C. Peterson) Lean Democratic to Tilt Democratic.
With those rating changes, the 2020 House battlefield now includes 39 vulnerable Democratic seats, 30 vulnerable Republican seats, and former Republican/independent Justin Amash’s district in Michigan.
Technically, Republicans need a net gain of 19 seats to retake the majority.
But in reality, that target number will be more than 20 seats, because Democrats are likely to gain at least two seats in North Carolina with a new congressional map.
There’s still time for Trump’s standing to improve enough to boost lower-tier House GOP candidates, for a significant backlash to develop against Democrats for pursuing Trump’s impeachment, or for GOP House candidates to strengthen their campaigns. But right now, Democrats are most likely to maintain their majority in the next Congress.
