The government has blamed the good weather for the record number of migrant crossings this year as smuggling gangs take advantage of sunny conditions to cram more people into small boats.
A Home Office report on Tuesday linked the balmy start to 2025 to the dramatic rise in the number of small boat crossings compared to the same period last year.
There were 60 so-called "red" days identified by the Met Office between January 1 and April 30, when factors such as wind speed, wave height and expectation of rain meant crossings were classed as "likely" or "highly likely" by officials.
More than 11,000 migrants arrived in the UK during these four months after crossing the Channel from France.
By contrast, there were 27 red days in the same period last year, less than half the number in 2025, with 7,567 arrivals recorded - nearly a third lower than the total for this year.
The average number of people arriving in each boat has also more than quadrupled, from 11 per boat in 2019 to 53 in 2024. So far this year the average has been 56.
Gangs are said to be increasingly launching larger vessels from inland waterways, which then travel to the coast and migrants wade into the water to board. The move takes advantage of rules which ban French police from intercepting boats once they are in water.
However, shadow home secretary Chris Philp said the figures showed the “clear failure” of Labour’s plan to “smash” the people trafficking gangs facilitating the Channel crossings.
He said: "Labour seems to think praying for bad weather is a good border security strategy.
"This is a weak Government, with no plan to end illegal immigrants crossing the Channel.
"Blaming the weather for the highest ever crossing numbers so far this year is the border security equivalent of a lazy student claiming 'the dog ate my homework'.
"This is a clear failure for our weak Prime Minister and his weak Home Secretary."
The Home Office report comes just days after 1,195 migrants made the journey to the UK in 19 boats on Saturday - the highest daily total recorded so far this year.
The cumulative total for the year, 14,812, is the biggest number for the first five months of a year since data collection began in 2018.
Assessments of the likelihood of migrant crossings are prepared for the Home Office by the Met Office.
Red days mean the probability of migrant activity in the Channel is greater than 55%, while green days are determined by the likelihood being less than 35%, with crossings "unlikely" or "highly unlikely".
The analysis is based on data recorded in the Dover Strait and does not consider wider factors such as the availability of dinghies.
The Government has vowed to crack down on people smuggling gangs, including by handing counter terror-style powers to law enforcement agencies under the Border Security, Asylum and Immigration Bill, currently going through Parliament.
But officials are understood to be pessimistic about the prospect of bringing numbers down this year, with measures not expected to start working until 2026.
A Home Office spokesman said 9,000 crossings have been prevented from the French coastline so far this year.
He added: "This government is restoring grip to the broken asylum system it inherited that saw a whole criminal smuggling enterprise allowed to develop, where gangs have been able to exploit periods of good weather to increase the rate of crossings for too long."
Home Secretary Yvette Cooper said the Government is pressing their French counterparts to bring in agreed law changes that would allow police to take action to stop crossings in shallow water.
"A French maritime review is looking at what new operational tactics they will use, and we are urging France to complete this review and implement the changes as swiftly as possible," Ms Cooper told MPs on Monday.
"I have been in touch with the French interior minister who supports stronger action again this weekend, and there are further discussions under way this week."
