Retailers are expected to add just 265,000 to 365,000 seasonal jobs this year, the National Retail Federation said on Thursday. The forecast is the lowest holiday hiring tally in at least 15 years, down from 442,000 last year and NRF said, is consistent with a softer labor market.
NRF Cites Softer Labor Market, Tariff Costs
According to Reuters, NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said on a media call that the hiring outlook "reflect[s] the softening and slowing labor market." Chief economist Mark Mathews added that some chains likely pulled seasonal hiring into October to support early promotions, while many are watching costs and limiting additions amid higher tariff-related expenses.
Spending Forecast Tops $1 Trillion Despite Caution
The lighter staffing comes even as NRF projects Americans will spend more than a year ago. The group forecast November–December retail sales of $1.01 trillion to $1.02 trillion, a 3.7%–4.2% increase from 2024, enough to push holiday sales above $1 trillion for the first time. Still, NRF expects growth to trail last year's 4.3% gain as shoppers remain price-sensitive.
See Also: Trump Courts ‘Extremely Wealthy’ Central Asia With $100 Billion Uzbekistan Investment Pact
It is worth noting that NRF's forecast methodology draws on employment, wages and historical sales trends. The group, in a press release of the forecast on Thursday, emphasized that headline figures exclude restaurants, gas stations and auto dealers.
Shutdown Clouds Data As Promotions Drive Demand
The outlook lands in the middle of a data blackout. The federal government shutdown, now in its 37th day and the longest on record, has halted key releases on jobs and retail sales, forcing forecasters to lean on private indicators.
Even with fewer seasonal hires, NRF says consumers should still turn out, lured by heavy discounting. "American consumers may be cautious in sentiment, yet remain fundamentally strong," Shay said, while Mathews noted retailers are "highly promotional" and prepared to keep prices sharp.
Mathews also pointed to structural shifts weighing on hiring needs, from demographics to policy, and said many retailers will add staff only if demand strengthens deeper into the season. "Some hiring may have been pulled forward," he said, and companies are closely monitoring tariffs' pass-through to costs.
Read Next:
Image via Carolyn Franks from Shutterstock
