Thai tourism operators are looking beyond the sluggish low season and expect healthy bookings, particularly from European tourists, when the high season returns in the final quarter.
Thapanee Kiatphaibool, governor of the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT), said most tourism operators still expect healthy bookings during the year-end winter high season despite concerns over geopolitical issues.
She said that if the conflict eases, inbound tourism is expected to recover quickly, particularly in the quality leisure segment.
"Despite high fuel prices and reduced flight capacity, large travel operators believe that demand to visit Thailand in the long-term remains strong, especially for cruise and premium tourism packages," she said.
However, the country may face intense competition for price-sensitive markets, as destinations such as China and Vietnam have already seized a massive share of tourists from Thailand.
Ms Thapanee added that tourist behaviour has also changed, as the average advanced bookings were shortened to 16 weeks prior to a trip compared to seven months in the past, illustrating more caution in travel spending.
According to TUI, bookings for the summer in the UK market dropped by 10% due to concerns over the war and the rising cost of living.
However, the agency believes that tourists from the Middle East would escape from their hot season between July and September to come to Thailand, based on positive signs from airlines such as Flydubai, which will operate twice-a-day flights to Don Mueang International Airport from July 1.
Bill Barnett, managing director of C9 Hotelworks, a hospitality consultancy, said the fourth quarter outlook for Phuket remains unclear due to the unstable geopolitical situation.
However, European tourists should still be visiting Thailand this winter due to attractive weather, destinations, and flight connections, and would be willing to pay a high price for their holidays.
Airlines like Thai Airways are adjusting flights by adding more direct routes between Asia and Europe without connecting via the Middle East, Mr Barnett noted.
International airlines are also maintaining their plans to add flights to Phuket, such as Virgin Atlantic from London. Eastern European and Russian tourists are expected to continue their trips, thanks to services that avoid airspace within war zones.
However, hotels might not be able to increase their room rates as much as last year, as mass markets with high volume will be more concerned about spending.
Mr Barnett added that a point of greater concern is that regional competitors such as Vietnam are developing their attractions, and are trying to compete for the same markets as Thailand.
Kasmaporn Limpanapongthep, president of the Krabi Hotel Association, said European and long-haul tourists have been the major market for Krabi, contributing more than half of visitors.
She said forward bookings are gradually picking up, showing demand from these markets to Krabi, although forward bookings remain slower as tourists are exercising caution when it comes to spending.
At present, four- to five-star hotels in Krabi are seeing only 30% of forward bookings for the high season.
