President Trump teased Monday that he's moving closer a deal with Iran to end the war — but he stopped short of saying who the U.S. is negotiating with.
Why it matters: Since Israel's assassinations of top Iranian leaders at the start of the war, there's been uncertainty about who is running the country day to day and which officials might actually be empowered to cut a deal with the U.S.
Breaking it down: Among those killed are Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and Ali Larijani, who was seen as the de facto civilian leader after Khamenei's death.
- Khamenei's son Mojtaba officially succeeded his father, but he has remained in the shadows.
- The U.S. also does not see Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who led both sets rounds of nuclear talks prior to the war, as a key decision-maker, U.S. officials tell Axios. The White House has been trying to assess who is making decisions and establish lines of communication.
- Trump further complicated the leadership picture Monday when he said regime change may come soon. Meanwhile, Israel continues to target Iranian leaders including Mojtaba Khamenei
Driving the news: Sources told Axios that mediators were trying to set up a call, and potentially an in-person meeting, between Trump's envoys and the speaker of Iran's parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.
- Ghalibaf denied that any negotiations had taken place.
- A source familiar with the diplomacy said involving Ghalibaf would be significant because of his seniority within the regime.
Here's which Iranian leaders are still alive and could influence the Iran war's end.
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
Trump told reporters Monday that U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner had been speaking with a senior official in the Iranian leadership.
- An Israeli official told Axios Trump was referring to Ghalibaf. A second source said messages had been passed between the U.S. and Iran but no direct contact with Ghalibaf had taken place.
Zoom in: Ghalibaf, a former IRGC general and former mayor of Tehran, is currently the most senior civilian official in Iran's decision-making circle. He He is a close associate of Mojtaba Khamenei.
- Ghalibaf played a key role during the 12-day war last June, and on Sunday morning provided the rebuttal to Trump's threats to bomb Iran's power plants by warning that Iran would bomb energy facilities in the Gulf and Israel in response.
- Ghalibaf has long been seen as a key power broker in the regime with strong ties to the IRGC, though he has also faced scrutiny for his wealth and alleged corruption.
The other side: Ghalibaf denied that there had been any negotiations with the U.S. and called the U.S. claims fake news "to manipulate the financial and oil markets."
Mojtaba Khamenei
Mojtaba Khamenei succeeded his father, Ali Khamenei, shortly after the Iran war began.
- Critics pushed back against Mojtaba's rise due to his lack of leadership experience and the regime's general aversion to dynastic control.
- Israel put Mojtaba at the top of its target list when the war started. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth claimed Mojtaba was "wounded and likely disfigured" in the strike that killed his father.
Reality check: Mojtaba's physical condition, whereabouts and role in the Iran war remain a mystery, Axios' Barak Ravid writes.
- The CIA, Mossad and other intelligence agencies are monitoring for any potential movement.
- They have not seen signs as yet that Mojtaba is actively leading the war effort.
Abbas Araghchi
Araghchi is a highly experienced diplomat and politician who has held his current role since 2024, and led two sets of nuclear talks with Witkoff and Kushner.
- He's been described as "a regime loyalist and relentless negotiator," by the Wall Street Journal.
The intrigue: Araghchi pushed back against Trump's ultimatum to "obliterate" Iran's power plants.
- At various points of tension over the past year, texts between Araghchi and Witkoff have been the primary channel of communication between Washington and Tehran. But Araghchi has denied any direct contact with Witkoff since the war began.
- U.S. officials have told Axios they don't believe Araghchi is empowered to make a deal in the current regime hierarchy. But they might still find him on the other side of the table in any future negotiations.
President Masoud Pezeshkian
Masoud Pezeshkian was elected president of Iran in 2024 over hardline candidates and is currently the leader of the more moderate reformist faction.
- The presidency is an important position in Iran, but it sits below the supreme leader.
- After Ali Khamenei's assassination, Pezeshkian was added to the country's interim Leadership Council.
- Pezeshkian has significant authority over day-to-day governance in Iran, but he is not believed to be at the center of Iran's war-planning or diplomacy.
IRGC leadership
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has enormous influence over Iran's politics and economy, particularly at present with the country at war and experiencing something of a power vacuum.
- Mojtaba Khamenei was reportedly chosen as supreme leader in large part due to his strong ties with the IRGC. The group has pledged support to him, saying in the early days of the war that it's "ready to fully obey" Mojtaba's commands.
- While the IRGC is unlikely to have a direct role in negotiations to end the war, the group could have significant influence over the path of the conflict and on any efforts to end it.
Go deeper: 4 pivotal questions that could define the Iran war's next phase
