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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Business
Graeme Wearden

IMF warns world economy may soon be on the cusp of recession – as it happened

easyJet Heathrow United States
The International Monetary Fund logo in Washington.
The International Monetary Fund logo in Washington. Photograph: Yuri Gripas/Reuters

Closing post:

Time to wrap up.... here are today’s main stories, first on the IMF’s growth downgrades:

...the UK’s travel disruption...

...inflation and the rising cost of living...

...the energy crisis in Europe, and the UK....

...and the ongoing impact of Brexit on the UK economy:

We’ll be back tomorrow.... GW

Rachel Reeves MP, Labour’s Shadow Chancellor, has responded to the IMF forecast that the UK is set for the slowest growth of G7 economies next year (see here for details):

“Today’s forecast underlines yet again how 12 years of Conservative governments have left our economy weaker than our competitors and less resilient.

“To give Britain the fresh start it needs, we need a new approach - one based on growth, because low growth economies cannot rise to meet the challenges of the future.

“The choice at the next election will be between Labour growth and Tory stagnation.

“With our Climate Investment Pledge and plan to buy, make and sell more in Britain, Labour will deliver the strong, secure and fair growth our country needs.”

Shopify is laying off roughly 1,000 workers, or around 10% of its global workforce.

The Canadian e-commerce firm, which provides services to help companies sell online, is cutting staff after realising the pandemic e-commerce boom was fading as consumers cut back.

CNBC has the details:

In a memo to staff, CEO Tobi Lutke acknowledged he had misjudged how long the pandemic-driven e-commerce boom would last, and amid a broader pullback in online spending, Shopify would move to cut a number of roles.

The cuts will affect all of Shopify’s divisions, though most will occur in recruiting, support, and sales, and “across the company” it is eliminating “over-specialized and duplicate roles, as well as some groups that were convenient to have but too far removed from building products,” Lutke said in the memo.

Shares in Shopify have dropped 15% in early trading.

American consumer confidence has fallen for the third month running as inflation hits US households.

The decline will bolster fears that the US economy is weakening.

Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board, which conducts the survey, explains:

“The decrease was driven primarily by a decline in the Present Situation Index—a sign growth has slowed at the start of Q3. The Expectations Index held relatively steady, but remained well below a reading of 80, suggesting recession risks persist.

Concerns about inflation—rising gas and food prices, in particular—continued to weigh on consumers.”

US house price growth has slowed, a sign rising interest rates could be taking some heat out of a market that has been red-hot for many months.

Home prices in May were 19.7% higher compared with the same month last year, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index.

That’s a drop in April’s 20.6%, and the second month of slower increases, as the housing market cools due to higher mortgage rates and increasing concern over inflation.

Mortgage affordability in the US has become increasingly stretched as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates sharply, with another steep increase of 75 basis points expected tomorrow.

As the Daily Telegraph explains today:

The average rate of a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in the US, the most popular length of loan in the country, has doubled in the past year.

New borrowers paid an average of 2.78pc in July 2021, but this has risen to 5.54pc this month, according to US lender Freddie Mac.

Longer fixed mortgage deals mean many US housebuyers could be insulated from this (although it will scupper some remorgaging plans).

In the UK, though, mortgage owners are usually on shorter deals, so would be hit sooner by Bank of England rate rises.

Updated

Back in the financial markets, shares in Walmart have dropped 8% after it issued its second profit warning in 10 weeks last night.

The hypermarket titan reported that inflation was hitting price-sensitive consumers, as soaring prices left people with less to spend.

Shares in rival retailers are also sliding:

IMF cuts UK growth forecast for 2023

The UK’s economy is expected to lag behind other major economies in 2023, as the IMF cuts its growth forecast.

UK GDP is now only forecast to rise by 0.5% next year, a very weak performance, and expected to be the weakest in the G7. Only Russia is expected to do even worse out of major rivals:

Updated

IMF growth projections

The IMF cas cut China’s growth forecast this year to 3.3%, from 4,4% back in April, citing the impact of Covid-10 lockdowns and the crisis in its property sector.

The eurozone’s 2022 growth forecast is cut to 2.6%, from 2.8%.

The US is now expected to grow just 2.3% this year, down from 3.7%.

Russia is expected to shrink 6% this year, and another 3.5% in 2023, while the Ukraine’s economy is expected to contract by 45% in the war, with ‘high uncertainty’ over its outlook.

Risks to the outlook "overwhelmingly tilted to the downside":

The IMF also gives a stark warning that economic prospects could be much worse than its new forecasts.

The risks to the outlook are “overwhelmingly tilted to the downside”, it says, picking out six key threats:

  • The war in Ukraine could lead to a sudden stop of European gas flows from Russia

  • Inflation could remain stubbornly high if labor markets remain overly tight or inflation expectations de-anchor, or disinflation proves more costly than expected

  • Tighter global financial conditions could induce a surge in debt distress in emerging market and developing economies

  • Renewed COVID-19 outbreaks and lockdowns might further suppress China’s growth

  • Rising food and energy prices could cause widespread food insecurity and social unrest

  • Geopolitical fragmentation might impede global trade and cooperation.

The Fund warns that if some of these risks emerge-- such as a full shutdown of Russian gas to Europe -- inflation will surge even higher, and growth will be even weaker:

In a plausible alternative scenario where some of these risks materialize, including a full shutdown of Russian gas flows to Europe, inflation will rise and global growth decelerate further to about 2.6 percent this year and 2 percent next year—a pace that growth has fallen below just five times since 1970.

Under this scenario, both the United States and the euro area experience near-zero growth next year, with negative knock-on effects for the rest of the world.

Updated

IMF hikes inflation forecast

Despite economic activity slowing, the IMF has lifted its global inflation forecasts as consumers are hit by rising food and energy prices.

Inflation this year is anticipated to rise to 6.6% in advanced economies, an upward revision of 0.9 percentage points, and jump to 9.5% in developing economies, 0.8 percentage points higher than before

The IMF warns that inflation will remain elevated for longer, with Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas adding:

Inflation has also broadened in many economies, reflecting the impact of cost pressures from disrupted supply chains and historically tight labor markets.

The IMF’s new inflation forecasts
The IMF’s new inflation forecasts Photograph: IMF

IMF cuts global growth forecasts as outlook darkens

The world may soon be teetering on the edge of a global recession, only two years after the last one, warns the International Monetary Fund as it cuts its growth forecasts.

In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF warns that growth is stalling in the world’s three largest economies — the United States, China and the euro area.

The Fund has cut its growth forecast for his year to 3.2%, down from 3.6% previously, and to just 2.9% in 2023, down from 3.6%.

In a blog post explaining the move, IMF economic counsellor Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas warns that “the outlook has darkened significantly since April”, with the global economy expected to have contracted in the last quarter.

Gourinchas says:

The global economy, still reeling from the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, is facing an increasingly gloomy and uncertain outlook.

Many of the downside risks flagged in our April World Economic Outlook have begun to materialize. Higher-than-expected inflation, especially in the United States and major European economies, is triggering a tightening of global financial conditions.

China’s slowdown has been worse than anticipated amid COVID-19 outbreaks and lockdowns, and there have been further negative spillovers from the war in Ukraine. As a result, global output contracted in the second quarter of this year .

Fizzy drinks maker Coca-Cola has swelled its sales thanks to price increases.

Coca-Cola posted higher-than-expected sales in the second quarter, due to price increases and rising demand from restaurants and other venues.

Organic revenues grew 16% in the last quarter, ahead of Wall Street forecasts, as customer kept buying despite Coca-Cola lifting prices by 12%.

The soft drinks giant now sees organic revenue growth of 12% to 13% for the full year, up from its previous estimate of 7% to 8%.

CEO James Quincey said:

Our results this quarter reflect the agility of our business, the strength of our streamlined portfolio of brands, and the actions we’ve taken to execute for growth in the face of challenges in the operating and macroeconomic environment.

US natural gas price are also rising today, pushed up by increased energy demands for air conditioning in the hot weather, as well as European supply shortfalls.

Russia is blaming technical problems for the cuts to European gas supplies which kick in tomorrow.

The Kremlin says one repaired gas turbine for Nord Stream 1, Russia’s biggest gas pipeline to Europe, had not yet arrived after maintenance in Canada and that a second turbine was showing defects.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that the sanctions against Russia had critically complicated the work of Nord Stream 1, which is reducing gas supplies to Europe to just 20% of its capacity amid maintenance, Reuters reports.

This chart highlights how European gas prices have jumped:

Updated

Gas price jump on Russia supply fears

European Union countries have approved a weakened emergency plan to curb their gas demand on Tuesday, just as fears over disruption to Russian supplies sends wholesale prices soaring.

At a meeting in Brussels, energy ministers approved a proposal for all EU countries to voluntarily cut gas use by 15% from August to March.

The cuts could be made binding in a supply emergency, but countries have agreed to exempt numerous countries and industries.

Russia’s Gazprom is due to cut gas flows to Europe tomorrow, to just 20% of normal capacity through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, which will put more pressure on supplies.

With fears of a shutoff rising, the price of gas for delivery in the UK next month has jumped 11% today to 356p per therm, the highest since March, early in the Ukraine war.

Updated

The British satellite company OneWeb and its French rival Eutelsat announced this morning they have signed an initial merger deal that could help them challenge the likes of the Elon Musk-owned SpaceX’s Starlink.

The transaction, following reports that both companies were in tie-up talks, values OneWeb at $3.4bn (£2.8bn).

It would be structured as an exchange of OneWeb shares by its shareholders with new shares issued by Eutelsat, leaving the latter owning 100% of OneWeb.

The rising cost of paper has dented profits at the publishing company Reach, which owns titles including the Mirror, the Express and dozens of local newspapers, our media editor Jim Waterson reports.

Physical newsprint costs have risen by 65% on a like-for-like basis over the last year, forcing the company to reduce the number of pages in its newspapers, increase cover prices and send fewer newspapers to shops.

Many paper mills have closed in recent years as a result of reduced demand caused by the widespread shift to online reading, while pandemic-related disruption has also affected supply chains.

As the economy returns to normal after the Covid-19 pandemic, this has led to an enormous and rapid rise in prices charged by the paper mills that remain open.

Simon Fuller, the chief financial officer at Reach, said:

“This puts current newsprint prices at their highest ever level”.

Shortages of semiconductors and other parts have hit profits at US car manufacturer General Motors.

General Motors has missed Wall Street forecasts, reporting a 40% drop in adjusted earnings to $1.67bn in April-June.

CEO Mary Barra says the drop in earnings reflect the impacts of supply chain disruptions, especially in June. Those problems meant GM couldn’t deliver 95,000 vehicles during the quarter because they were built without key parts.

GM is sticking to its full-year earnings guidance, anticipating that global production and wholesale deliveries will be up sharply in the second half.

But Barra points out that the economic picture is challenging:

We have been operating with lower volumes due to the semiconductor shortage for the past year, and we have delivered strong results despite those pressures. There are concerns about economic conditions, to be sure.

That’s why we are already taking proactive steps to manage costs and cash flows, including reducing discretionary spending and limiting hiring to critical needs and positions that support growth. We have also modeled many downturn scenarios and we are prepared to take deliberate action when and if necessary.

A Morrisons store in Camden, London

The cost of living crisis is now so serious that supermarkets are donating food to fight holiday hunger this summer.

Supermarket chain Morrisons is to donating £100,000 of nutritious food such as fresh fruit, cereal, sandwiches, snacks and drinks to local holiday clubs across the country to help poorer families stay fed -- a stark reminder of how bad things are.

Holiday hunger is a serious problem for those struggling under financial pressure, as children will not get free school meals during the summer break.

Rebecca Singleton, Customer and Community Director at Morrisons, said:

“Schools, community groups and HAF aim to support children with healthy food at activity clubs during the school holidays, that is why we’re donating £100,000 worth of nutritious food to support the needs of local clubs across the country to help prevent families from experiencing holiday hunger this summer.”

Yesterday Tesco said it will offer free children’s meals with any purchase at its supermarket cafes during the school summer holidays to help families struggling with the cost of living crisis.

UK retailers gloomy after sales volumes drop again

British retailers have been hit by falling sales again this month, leaving them pessimistic about the outlook for August.

Retail sales volumes dipped in July, according to the CBI’s latest ‘distributive trades’ report, as the cost-of-living squeeze weighs on demand.

The CBI’s July retail sales balance for July edged up to -4 from June’s -5, but expectations for August dropped to -14.

That’s the weakest reading since March 2021 when many shops still faced COVID-19 lockdown restrictions.

This time, though, falling real incomes -- and the rising prices of goods such as Unilever’s product range -- are leaving shoppers with less spending power.

CBI economist Martin Sartorius said.

Retail activity continues to take a hit as consumers struggle to cope with the effects of the cost-of-living crisis.

For wholesalers, high inflation and weakening economic momentum has meant that sales volumes have now fallen following a solid period of growth stretching back to March 2021.

Retailers also reported that their stock levels relative to expected demand were the highest since July 2020.

That’s both a good sign (suggesting supply chain problems have eased) and a worrying one (will retailers be left with too much stock if demand slumps?).


Industrial action involving bus drivers employed by Arriva Yorkshire has ended after they accepted a “vastly improved” pay offer.

The Unite union has announced that drivers have accepted a revised pay deal worth an average of 9%, in a ballot.

Around 650 workers had taken four weeks of strike action, after rejecting an initial 4.1% increase, well below UK inflation (which hit 9.4% in June).

Unite general secretary Sharon Graham says it’s a ‘superb result’:

It’s not just goods that are getting more expensive.

Amazon UK is lifting the price of its monthly Prime subscription service by 12.5% – or £1 – to £8.99 from September in the latest sign that delivery costs are rising.

Unilever raised its price for Home Care products around the world by a blistering 14.5% year-on-year.

Sales volumes took a 3.4% hit, but that still left underlying sales up 10.7%, as some customers stuck with Unilever’s fabric cleaning, home cleaner and dishwasher products even at higher prices.

Food prices rose 8.3%, including ‘double-digit price and volume growth’ for out-of-home icecream.

Beauty & Personal Care prices were lifted by 9.0% (knocking volumes down by 1.3%), with particularly pronounced price hikes in Latin America, South Asia and Turkey.

Unilever has not finished raising its prices either.

As the Financial Times explains, the company is planning to keep passing on its higher costs to consumers:

The consumer goods maker said it had yet to pass on the full impact of input cost rises to shoppers in what chief financial officer Graeme Pitkethly called a “truly unprecedented cost landscape”.

He said Unilever was increasing advertising to keep households loyal to its brands despite the price rises, and expected margins to remain lower for the rest of the year, with cost inflation expected to peak in the second half.

Pitkethly said that as prices rose, supermarket own-brand products were taking market share from brands owned by Unilever in Europe and the US.

“We’ve stepped up the investment in our brands. We’re definitely advertising more: we stepped up brand marketing investment by €200mn in the first half,” said Pitkethly.

Unilever lifts prices by 11% as it passes on higher costs to customers

Unilever’s logo

Consumer goods maker Unilever has lifted its sales forecast, after hiking its prices -- fuelling the cost of living squeeze facing customers around the world.

Unilever, whose brands range from Dove soap and Vaseline to Marmite and Magnum ice cream, lifted its prices by 9.8% in the first half of this year compared with a year ago.

Price rises accelerated to 11.2% in the second quarter, as global inflationary pressures increased.

This resulted in sales growth of 8.1% for the first half, with volumes falling 1.6% as some customers switched to cheaper rival products (or simply did without).

Soaring commodity prices pushed up Unilever’s costs this year, particularly in the Home Care sector, and the company has passed that bill onto customers.

The company now expects to beat its previous forecast of sales growth between 4.5% and 6.5%, “driven by price” as it keeps charging more for its products.

Alan Jope, Unilver’s chief executive officer, says its price rises ‘mitigated’ input cost inflation (while driving UP consumer inflation):

“Unilever has delivered a first half performance which builds on our momentum of 2021, despite the challenges of high inflation and slower global growth.

Underlying sales growth of 8.1% was driven by strong pricing to mitigate input cost inflation, which, as expected, had some impact on volume.

Jope claims that it is trying to keep price rises as low as possible, during a period of ‘sustained inflation’.

Unilever also continues to funnel profits to its investors. It completed a €750m share buyback tranche last week, and plans to launch a second tranche this quarter, as it aims to buy back up to €3bn of its stock.

Shares have jumped 3.1% in morning trading, to the top of the FTSE 100 index of blue-chip shares.

Updated

Power supply problems are causing disruption to rail services on the UK’s east coast main line this morning - a day before a national strike is expected to cause widespread problems.

Damage to the overhead electric wires between Peterborough and Stevenage means trains on the route may be cancelled, delayed by up to 60 minutes or revised.

Major disruption is expected until the end of the day, National Rail warns.

It will affect trains from London’s Kings Cross running to and from towns and cities including Edinburgh, Berwick-Upon-Tweed, Aberdeen, Newcastle, Middlesbrough, Stirling, Sunderland, Skipton, Hull, Bradford, Harrogate, York, Lincoln and Leeds.

Replacement buses are being deployed, with train operators confirming that services are being hit:

Some tickets are being accepted on other routes (although this won’t help those currently stuck on trains).

Full story: Heathrow reports £321m loss after queues and flight cancellations

Heathrow airport has unveiled a £321m adjusted pretax loss for the first half of the year after weeks of lengthy queues and flight cancellations, with passenger numbers back at near pre-pandemic levels.

Britain’s busiest airport said the summer getaway had “started well”, despite recently announcing a daily cap of 100,000 passengers until early September after it struggled to cope with rebounding demand for travel.

The London hub blamed a lack of ground handling staff for recent weeks of travel chaos and lengthy delays for passengers, describing this as the “constraint on Heathrow’s capacity”.

The airport estimated that airlines were lacking about 30% of ground handling staff compared with before Covid, adding there had not been an increase in these workers since January.

A full-scale model of the new Rolls-Royce UltraFan at the Farnborough International Airshow last week.
A full-scale model of the new Rolls-Royce UltraFan at the Farnborough International Airshow last week. Photograph: John Keeble/Getty Images

Eslewhere this morning, jet engine maker Rolls-Royce has named former BP executive Tufan Erginbilgic as its new chief executive to succeed outgoing boss Warren East.

Erginbilgic will take on the role on January 1 next year; East announced in February that he planned to leave at the end of 2022 after eight years at the helm.

Mr Erginbilgic spent more than 20 years at BP, including five years as part of its executive team and latterly as boss of the oil giant’s downstream business, before he left the group in 2020.

He is currently a partner at private equity firm Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP), which focuses on large-scale investments in infrastructure businesses and manages 81 billion US dollars (67 billion) for investors.

Mr Erginbilgic - who is a UK and Turkish national - will be paid a base salary of £1.25m at Rolls, 30% of which will be paid as shares deferred for two years.

EasyJet CEO: Brexit had an impact on staff hiring

Brexit is to blame for some of the staffing problems that caused air travel disruption this year, according to easyJet’s CEO.

Johan Lundgren has told LBC Radio that the labour pool is now smaller, meaning some potential recruits aren’t available now.

Before Brexit, and before the pandemic, around 40% of applications to work for easyjet at Gatwick and the London area were non-UK nationals, primarily EU nationals.

Today that number is 2.5%, Lundgren explains, adding;

You can’t say that Brexit doesn’t have an impact... clearly the pool is much smaller.

Updated

Shares in easyJet have dipped in early trading (down 0.8%).

They’re down over a third so far this year, as the Ukraine war drove up energy costs, making flying more expensive and leaving consumers with less to spend.

EasyJet’s share price this year
EasyJet’s share price this year Photograph: Refinitiv

EasyJet says that its July operations have been “much improved”, since it removed some flight capacity due to caps at London Gatwick and Amsterdam Schiphol.

Johan Lundgren, easyJet Chief Executive, tells shareholders:

“Delivering for customers this summer remains our highest priority.

During the quarter we carried seven times more customers than the same time last year and operated 95% of our schedule. We have taken action to build the additional resilience needed this summer and the operation has now normalised.

Customers will be fervently hoping Lundgren is right, after staff shortages and soaring demand led to delays and cancellations this year (and cost easyJet £133m).

Heathrow CEO: "Bizarre" to blame us for ground handler shortages

John Holland-Kaye has also rebutted criticism from Ryanair yesterday that airports messed up their ‘one job’ of hiring enough security staff and ground handlers for the summer rush.

Heathrow’s CEO tells the Today Programme that it is “bizarre” to accuse airports of not hiring enough ground handlers, as they’re employed by the airlines.

This is like accusing us of not having enough pilots.

John Holland-Kaye, Heathrow CEO, warns that it will take years for the airline industry to rebuilt after the pandemic:

We can’t ignore that COVID has left the aviation sector deeply scarred, and the next few years will need investment to rebuild capacity, with a focus on safety, consumer service, resilience and efficiency.

Airlines need to recruit and train more ground handlers; airports need catch up on underinvestment during the COVID years - at Heathrow, that means replacing the T2 baggage system and new security lanes.

And he takes a swipe at the UK’s aviation regulator for deciding that Heathrow should cut its landing fees over the next few years.

Recent months have shown that passengers value easy, quick and reliable journeys, not penny pinching, and the CAA should be encouraging the investment that will deliver for consumers.”

Updated

Introduction: Heathrow and easyJet post losses

Good morning and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the world economy and the financial markets.

Despite the recovery in air travel this summer, Heathrow Airport and budget airline easyJet have both reported losses this morning as the industry struggles to give all its customers a decent service.

Heathrow has posted a loss of £321m for the first six months of the year, an improvement on the £466m it lost in January-June 2021, when pandemic travel restrictions were in force.

Although passenger numbers surged to 26.1m, compared with just 3.9m a year earlier, Heathrow says it also faced higher costs. It isn’t planning to pay a dividend to its shareholders for 2022 (a wise move, given the delays and lost baggage suffered by some passengers this year).

Heathrow claims that the summer getaway has “started well”, despite having to introduce a cap on passenger numbers to avoid further travel chaos.

It insists that it started planning nine months ago for the summer peak, and that its own resources are “on track”.

We have hired 1,300 people in the last 6 months and will have a similar level of security resource by the end of July as pre-pandemic

Instead, Heathrow points the finger at airlines for problems, such as the mountain of lost baggage that built up last month. It estimates that they have just 70% of airline ground handlers compared to pre-pandemic levels, due to cost-cutting in the pandemic.

In the second half of June, as departing passenger numbers regularly exceeded 100,000 a day, we started to see a worrying increase in unacceptable service levels for some passengers; an increase in delays to get planes on to stand, bags not travelling with passengers or being delivered very late to the baggage hall, low departure punctuality and some flights being cancelled after passengers had boarded.

Rising costs and cancellations hit budget airline Easyjet’s bottom line too. It has posted a pre-tax loss of £114m for April-June, including a £133m loss due to disruption and cancelled flights.

That’s a better performance than the £318m loss in the same quarter last year.

EasyJet -- one of the airlines which has struggled the most -- flew 22m customers in the last quarter, up from 3m a year ago, and says:

The unprecedented ramp up across the aviation industry, coupled with a tight labour market, has resulted in widespread operational challenges culminating in higher levels of cancellations than normal.

Those cancellations means easyJet operated 95% of its planned schedule in Q3, with some customers seeing their flights cancelled at the last minute.

Also coming up today

The International Monetary Fund is expected to downgrade its global growth forecasts for 2022 and 2023 today, when it releases its updated World Economic Outlook.

Last week, IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva warned that the war in Ukraine had put more pressures on commodity and food prices, while global financial conditions are tightening more than expected, and global supply chains were still strugging.

European energy ministers will meet in Brussels today to discuss proposals to cut their gas use by 15% from August to March, with several countries having negotiating exemptions or softer rules.

Some governments, such as Spain, had opposing a blanket target, although yesterday’s news that Gazprom has cut flows to Europe highlights the growing risks of shortages this winter.

Supply fears have pushed wholesale gas prices close to their highest levels in four months, meaning consumers could face even higher bills this winter.

And this morning, a group of MPs have warned the UK government must immediately provide additional support to households, or risk millions plunging into “unmanageable” debt and damage to the economy.

European stock markets are set for a muted start, with the FTSE 100 called a little higher.

The agenda

  • 11am BST: CBI’s distributive trades survey of UK retailers
  • 2pm BST: IMF publishes its updated World Economic Outlook
  • 2pm BST: US house price index for June
  • 3pm BST: US consumer confidence report for July

Updated

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