With only a few hours to go until the start of what was slated as the first direct peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in years – talks that Vladimir Putin himself called – it still wasn’t clear if the Russian president would actually show up.
For weeks, he had dismissed Ukraine’s proposal for a 30-day unconditional ceasefire, backed by the US and Europe, to allow both sides to start negotiations on how to end Europe’s biggest war since World War Two.
Instead, the Russian leader challenged Volodymyr Zelensky to direct talks in Istanbul “without any preconditions” on Thursday. If they had gone ahead, it would have been the first meeting between the leaders since December 2019.
After brief initial reticence – and a few goading social media posts by Donald Trump – the Ukrainian leader called Moscow’s bluff by confirming that he would indeed attend in person.
By Wednesday afternoon, Putin was still a “maybe” for the meeting he had so loudly called for. With his spokesman teasing that the full list of the delegation would not be released until the evening, it was finally revealed - to few people’s suprise - that the Russian leader would not show up.
Not only is Putin not going, neither is his defence minster Sergei Lavrov - or any minister, for that matter.
In Ukraine, senior officials said this all proved it was posture and pantomime.
“I’m sure that they will play a trick. Someone will show up, but not Putin,” one senior source said. “That’s not their intention: to be open, transparent, direct, and finish the war.
“Putin is not strong in direct negotiations. He’s strong in playing games. He will play a card.”
Zelensky still intends to attend talks on Thursday with Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, even if that means hosting an empty chair, in a powerful message to the world, the source says.
“That will show to the US, it’ll show to Europe again, Russians do not want to negotiate. A significant part of our strategy is to show our partners – European and across the ocean – that we are very much a team player.
“You asked us to do more on European ground. Here we are: all major European leaders, fully aligned, fully together.
“The ceasefire is not happening, but [Putin] offers direct negotiations? We are ready for that.”
Earlier this week, Trump urged Ukraine to attend the talks, writing on social media that it should agree to the Turkey meeting “IMMEDIATELY”.
He also floated the idea that he, on his whirlwind tour of the Gulf, may also have joined the talks in Turkey, had Putin had signalled he was going.
“[Putin] would like me to be there, and that’s a possibility... I don’t know that he would be there if I’m not there. We’re going to find out,” the US president told reporters aboard Air Force One en route to Qatar on Wednesday.
In the event, he has left it his envoy Steve Witkoff to travel to Turkey on Friday with secretary of state Marco Rubio for the Russia–Ukraine talks.
Trump desperately wants the two sides to sign up to a 30-day ceasefire, to prove his skill at diplomacy on a gobal stage as much as anything.
Zelensky also backs the 30-day plan, but Putin has said he wants to start talks first and then hammer out the details of a ceasefire.
It has been years since the warring sides met face to face, with negotiators from Ukraine and Russia last meeting in Istanbul in March 2022, a month after Putin launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Russia has now decided to send no ministers to today’s talks. Negotiations will be headed up by presidential adviser Vladimir Medinsky: a former culture minister and now chairman of the Russian Union of Writers.
The Ukrainians know the contrast between Putin’s refusal and the image of Zelensky present and correct, ready and waiting, will curry favour with Trump and the rest of the world.
As the Ukrainian source said: “A real leader says, ‘Listen, you offer a meeting Thursday – I’ll be there.’ Is there anything stronger that can be said?”
But the question is - does Putin really care?
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