"Grand Theft Auto 6" has been quietly building, but fans know that it should overdeliver because of its long delay.
Although previous estimates had the game raking in an eye-popping $3 billion in its first year, fresh estimates from a gaming industry investor propose the truth could be even more astounding.
GTA 6 Could Bring In $7.6 Billion in 60 Days
As GameSpot spotted via Josh Chapman, managing partner at video game venture capital firm Konvoy, "GTA 6" might rake in around $7.6 billion in just two months of release.
Chapman revealed the figure in a recent LinkedIn post, referencing data-driven projections that place the next title as a potential record-setter within the video game space.
Konvoy's prediction makes several assumptions, such as an $80 launch price—above the industry norm of $70 for AAA titles—and a $2 billion development cost, which would be in line with top-end speculation on Rockstar's investment in the title. If Rockstar were to launch "GTA 6" at the well-rumored $100 price point, overall revenue would change even more.
Development Expenses Might be Earned Back in One Month
Even at the projected price point, Konvoy feels Rockstar Games can pay back its development cost within 30 days of launch, a rare achievement in the industry. This would not only make "GTA 6" one of the most awaited games in history, but also one of the entertainment industry's most successful launches ever.
The Gamer reported that Konvoy theorizes that Rockstar could launch a platform for user-generated content, à la Roblox. This "creator economy" enables users to create and profit from their own virtual materials in the game, a breakthrough that could drive long-term engagement and further revenue streams.
A Launch Like No Other, But Still a Big Unknown
While these positive projections are made, they are nothing more than that: estimates. "GTA 6's" actual performance will depend on a variety of unknowns, such as player acceptance, platform support, and whether Rockstar will release certain sales information.
There is also significant variation in recent projections. Whereas some experts still estimate first-year revenues at some $3.2 billion, others now incline toward Konvoy's high estimate of $7.6 billion in the first two months. That broad range captures not only uncertainty but the huge size of expectation around the game.
Rockstar's Golden Touch Remains Intact
If history is any guide, Rockstar has reason to feel optimistic. "Grand Theft Auto V" continues to be among the most successful video games of all time, with more than 180 million copies sold globally. Its sustained success tail, fueled by "GTA Online," creates a strong precedent for what "GTA 6" might do.
With this projection, Konvoy is confident that Rockstar won't underpromise with the game's features.
If Drake owns his radio station in the game, that would be another reason to love the game, especially if you're a fan.
