Take-Two Interactive Software (NASDAQ:TTWO) stock has been on a wild roller coaster in recent years with investors changing valuation of the company based on potential release dates for the highly anticipated "Grand Theft Auto VI."
Roundhill Investments CEO Dave Mazza shares his thoughts on how to value Take-Two stock and what's next for the company.
Take-Two Out In 2026?: After a long delay, Mazza is confident that 2026 is the year the public sees "Grand Theft Auto VI" released to the public.
"Yes, Take-Two and Rockstar have locked in May 26, 2026, as the street date, pushing the project out of fiscal 2026 and into fiscal 2027, but giving the team room to finish what CEO Strauss Zelnick calls ‘our most ambitious title ever,'" Mazza told Benzinga.
Mazza said that "barring force-majeure," the internal milestones and marketing spend on the new video game are now set for that key company date.
Prediction market Kalshi has a betting market on when "Grand Theft Auto VI" will be released. The game being released before June 2026, which would be the current company date, is at 68%. The game being released before August 2026 sits at 84%. The market for the game being released before 2027 sits at 94% odds.
Video Game Pricing: One of the hot topics about the release of "Grand Theft Auto VI" is pricing, with reports that the game will have a higher price tag than other games.
"Rockstar's scope and marketing clout give it room to test higher price points as analysts expect $80 standard and $100-plus deluxe editions, but only a handful of ‘event' franchises can command that premium," Mazza said
Mazza named Grand Theft Auto, Elder Scrolls and Call of Duty as franchises that can likely charge more for games. The Roundhill CEO doesn't think the higher pricing for this particular game will change the overall sector.
"Most publishers will still ship at $70 and rely on post-launch DLC or battle-passes to grow ARPU, while free-to-play giants compete on zero entry cost and monetize through cosmetics."
Valuing Take-Two Stock: Take-Two is the fourth-largest holding in the Roundhill Video Games ETF (NASDAQ:NERD) which was launched back in 2019.
Mazza said the delay of "Grand Theft Auto VI" to the next fiscal year led to the stock falling 7% to 10% and around $2 billion in revenue forecasts going to the next year.
"Yet, sell-side targets still cluster around $235 to $240 on the view that a $3 billion-plus launch year in full year 2027 will dwarf the short-term gap," Mazza said.
Mazza said "the right lens is bookings visibility."
"Valuation therefore, rests on discounted cash flow that weights the out-year spike, balances mobile and sports portfolios in the interim, and assigns a probability discount to further slips. Long-only holders need patience; traders may treat the lull as optionality on flawless execution."
TTWO Price Action: Take-Two stock trades at $228.66 versus a 52-week trading range of $135.24 to $245.08. Take-Two stock is up 25.8% year-to-date in 2025.
Read Next:
Photo: miss.cabul via Shutterstock
