Week 14 rolled in for us like a Christmas-stealing Grinch. It was very unkind. The subpar 9-7 mark straight-up was bad enough. Far worse: The gruesome 5-11 against the spread, our worst this season ATS, a lump of coal in the stocking. We managed a few bright spots. Nailed our Upset of the Week with Denver winning at Carolina (“Aawwk!”). Had a second outright upset bull’s-eye with Washington winning at San Fran. Also had Dolphins-with-points covering vs. Kansas City. The rest we won’t mention. Wrong side of too many point spreads. It happens. Crazy season. We move on. Now it’s time to bounce back big and finish strong! [Note: Thursday night pick was @Raiders (-3 1/2) over Chargers, 34-30].
Week 14: 9-7, .563 overall; 5-11, .313 vs. spread.
Season: 132-75-1, 638 overall; 107-99-2, .519 vs. spread.
Final 2019: 169-86-1, .663 overall; 129-120-7, .518 vs. spread.
Final 2018: 179-75-2, .705 overall; 145-104-7, .582 vs. spread.
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GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 15 PICKS
GAME OF THE WEEK
CHIEFS (12-1) at SAINTS (10-3)
Line: KC by 3.
Cote’s pick: NO 34-30.
Among lots of lousy and lopsided-looking Week 15 games, this one stands out like a prized rose amid sagebrush — and a quite plausible Super Bowl preview at that! But is there a chink in the armor of both? Kansas City has won eight in row but the last five (including Miami last week) have all been by a one-score margin. N’Awlins had won nine in a row but last week fell to a down-year Philadelphia. Saints’ loss was an aberration. Chiefs’ close calls are more of a trend. I know, I know. Big risk to pick against Patrick Mahomes and a championship team that hasn’t lost since October. But I see the Fleur-de-lis running the ball on KC in the one area that tilts most to one side. And Sean Payton is on a 9-1 run following a loss and will have his guys stoked at home for their biggest game of the year. Upset!
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UPSET OF THE WEEK
49ERS (5-8) at COWBOYS (4-9)
Line: SF By 3.
Cote’s pick: DAL 23-21.
“AAAWWWK!” booms the Upset Bird. “Tough to see the mighty laid so low. Laid so laaawwwk!” Two storied franchises with five Super Bowl wins apiece. Heck, if this were around 1993 this matchup would be at the top of the football world. In 2020, it’s just a random game that got flexed out of prime time on the schedule. Injury-wracked Niners are on a 1-5 skid. Boys have lost seven in a row following a victory and try, try again for the elusive two-game win streak. Here’s a dice roll that says it finally happens and makes Jerry’s World a happy place for one bleepin’ afternoon. “Note to self,” says U-Bird, mind wandering. “Must get Mrs. Upset Bird a box of mealworms for Christmas — her favorite! Although she’s also been hinting around for a new iPhone and a NordicTrack. Mealworaaawwwk!”
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THE REST OF WEEK 15:
Patriots (6-7, +1) over @Dolphins (8-5), 23-19: Pats, with a scant hope of making the postseason, can play spoiler and hugely deny Miami’s hopes. It’s rested Pats vs. banged-up Fins. Tua Tagovailoa will likely be without injured TE Mike Gesicki and could also be sans WR DeVante Parker (hamstring). LB Kyle Van Noy, ex-Pat, might also be missing, while NE could finally see Julian Edelman back on the field. With Miami’s big-play defense able to disrupt Cam Newton anything is possible. But Bill Belichick, vs. a rookie QB, with extra time to prepare, remains too good to pass up. Mini-upset!
Bills (10-3, -6) over @Broncos (5-8), 24-20: Buffalo clinches first division title since 1995 with a win in the first of two Saturday games. Denver is 3-0 this season vs. AFC East. That run ends, although hot Bills may be in letdown mode after big statement win over Pittsburgh last Sunday night. Bet Broncos keep it close at home.
@Packers (10-3, -9) over Panthers (4-9), 31-13: Gee Bees hold No. 1 NFC seed and aren’t about to give it up by losing at Lambeau in Saturday’s prime-time game to a Carolina squad that has lost Teddy Bridgewater’s last seven starts and is likely to be without RB Christian McCaffrey again. Aaron Rodgers feathers his MVP candidacy.
Buccaneers (8-5, -6) over @Falcons (4-9), 30-20: Wildly inconsistent ATL is a mystery from week to week. Which Birds will show? Which Matt Ryan? Falcons have been recent nemesis for Bucs, winning six of past seven in rivalry. But best play here is Tom Brady and his arsenal feast on a Atlanta defense that really struggles vs. the pass.
@Titans (9-4, -11) over Lions (5-8), 34-21: No defensive struggle, this one. Detroit’s outmanned run D has nothing in its toolbox to stop Derrick Henry. Tennessee’s 28 opponent TD passes allowed suggests a hot Matthew Stafford could have some fun, too. But Nashville cats clearly better on both sides of ball and clinch playoffs with win.
@Colts (9-4, -7) over Texans (4-9), 28-17: Philip Rivers is iffy (turf toe), but should play and find a great matchup against a struggling HOU defense, especially now that T.Y. Hilton has come back to life. Texans are banged-up on offense, and how much money has been lost waiting for Deshaun Watson to be a miracle worker?
@Vikings (6-7, -3) over Bears (6-7), 24-20: Winner in this division scrum will be alive in willd-card hunt thanks to expanded playoffs from six to seven teams per conference this year. Chitown started 5-1 and Minny 1-5. I would ride the disparate trends since, and also the ability of Kirk Cousins and Dalvin Cook to solve Bears defense.
Seahawks (9-4, -5 1/2) over @Washington (6-7), 23-20: Intriguing matchup. Washington has won four in a row on a tailwind of great defense to seize control in NFC East. Seattle rides big offense and can clinch playoff ticket with win here. Seattle has rival Rams up next, but good coaching and opponent’s recent surge should limit risk of a look-ahead. With Alex Smith (calf) iffy, bet on Russell Wilson — but close.
@Ravens (8-5, -13) over Jaguars (1-12), 31-16: Baltimore and Miami enter Week 15 neck-and-neck for the seventh and last AFC wild-card spot. Fins had better win, because you know the Ravens will here. BAL offense seems back on track, and its blitzy D will dominate Jags. Only question is, after emotional 47-42 Monday night win at Cleveland, how pumped will Crows be on a short week for an awful opponent?
@Rams (9-4, -17 1/2) over Jets (0-13), 34-3: Rams can clinch playoffs with a win, and seldom has any sporting conclusion seemed more foregone. NYJ is abysmally bad everywhere, LA is hugely better all over the field — and the Rams are rested after playing last Thursday.
@Cardinals (7-6, -7) over Eagles (4-8-1), 27-23: It’s Kyler Murray vs. Jalen Hurts in a duel of two former Oklahoma Sooners quarterbacks. Both teams won last week, Zona to end a three-game slide and Phils to halt four straight L’s. It was Eagles beating Saints that caught the eye. A reprise of that effort (too much to ask?) should keep this one inside the bet-line.
Browns (9-4, -5) over @Giants (5-8), 20-17: Cleveland getting more prime-time love Sunday after that big show this past Monday. But will Browns avoid short-week letdown after such an emotional loss? NYG is good enough to fashion an upset if they don’t, although Daniel Jones’ iffy status (ankle, hamstring) weakens the likelihood. Still hunch Earthtones will be a bit flat (Flat Earthtones Society) and that BIggies keep it close.
Steelers (11-2, -13) over @Bengals (2-10-1), 30-0: Lousy Monday nighter, except to fans of lopsided games continuing a lopsided division series. After big loss at Buffalo and with Colts/Browns to close on deck, this is a sandwich game for Pittsburgh. I.e., don’t forget about the Bengals! But Steelers still chasing AFC’s No. 1 seed should limit that concern. Brandon Allen, Ryan Finley -- either 'Gals QB will be dominated by Pitt’s D.
[Point spreads used are courtesy Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill as of Thursday afternoon.]
