Point-blank, this is our 31st year doing NFL picks in the Miami Herald — since 1991 — and we’re peddling uphill to avoid one of our worst seasons ever. I mean, Jags beating BiIls? Cue John McEnroe: “You cannot be serious!?” Upsets galore have my overall record still just under the Mendoza Line of .600, and I’m also on the wrong side of the magic plus-.500 line against the spread. Last week I nailed my Upset of the Week picks with Giants beating Raiders (“Aawwk!’), and had Packers with points at Chiefs, but too little else went right. Good example: A close-don’t-count almost in picking Eagles to upset Chargers. The good news: It’s only halftime of the 2021 season. Lots of games left and a lot of fight left in us to find our groove and ride it to a strong second half! [Note: Thursday night pick was Ravens (-7 1/2) over @Dolphins, 34-16.]
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Week 9: 8-6, .571 overall; 5-9, .357 vs. spread.
Season: 80-56, .588 overall; 64-70-2, .478 vs. spread.
Final 2020: 166-89-1, .651 overall; 130-120-6, .520 vs. spread.
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GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 10 PICKS
GAME OF THE WEEK
SEAHAWKS (3-5) at PACKERS (7-2)
Line: GB by 3.
Cote’s pick: GB 34-27.
TV: 4:25 p.m., CBS.
Seattle gets back QB Russell Wilson after three games out following finger surgery. Green Bay gets back Aaron Rodgers from COVID-19 quarantine after he lied about being vaccinated, then further embarrassed himself with his convoluted, combative explanation. Can Rodgers set aside the controversy and distraction? Can Wilson rally the Seahawks back into the playoff chase? Ladies and gentlemen: your Game of the Week! I give Seattle a major upset shot, coming off a bye and with RB Chris Carson expected back from injury alongside Wilson. But Gee Bees are a different animal at Lambeau (3-0 this year), and Rodgers, racing on high-octane motivation, should slice apart the Hawks’ bottom-five pass defense.
UPSET OF THE WEEK
RAMS (7-2) at 49ERS (3-5)
Line: LAR by 4.
Cote’s pick: SF, 24-23.
TV: 8:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN.
“AAAWWWK!” trumpets the Upset Bird. “San Francaaawwwk!” Monday night gets an NFC West showdown made more interesting by San Fran’s desperation to get back into the playoff chase and by L.A.’s unexpected beating by Tennessee last week. Sometimes I don’t trust trends because I know the law of averages is overdue. Example: The Niners have lost eight home games in a row. Crazy. Gotta end. I would also note that Matthew Stafford, playing on a tender ankle he tweaked last week, faces the NFL’s No. 4-ranked pass defense. And that SF is a bit of a Rams nemesis, having won four straight games in this rivalry and eight of the past 11. “Counting on a big showing by 49ers defense,” notes U-Bird. “’Cause I’m not sure how much I really trust Jimmy Garropolaaawwwk!”
THE REST OF WEEK 10:
@Cowboys (6-2, -9 1/2) over Falcons (4-4), 31-23: Dallas should rebound after Dak Prescott showed rust in unexpected spanking by Denver last week, but Ezekiel Elliott (knee) is banged up. ATL’s season has awakened with three wins in past four games, and Matt Ryan (still good, by the way) should score enough to keep this one inside a fat betting line.
@Titans (7-2, -3) over Saints (5-3), 28-24: Quality matchup got a token nod from our Game of the Week panel and was a tough pick for us. Tennessee’s five straight wins all have been vs. 2020 playoff teams, and we’re feeling a stumble is due. Could be why the point spread favoring Titans at home is bare minimum. As Upset Bird caws in distance, make it a low-confidence Titans cover.
@Colts (4-5, -10 1/2) over Jaguars (2-6), 34-16: OK, who was that team in the Jaguars uniforms beating Buffalo 9-6 last week? Feels like real Jags will reappear here, with Colts RB Jonathan Taylor having his way with Jax run D. Indy will scheme to stop RB James Robinson and force Trevor Lawrence to beat a Nags secondary that has seven picks in past four games.
@Patriots (5-4, -2 1/2) over Browns (5-4), 23-20: Damn Bill Belichick! A year ago he was the fallen king. Now? Three straight Pats wins. Top-five defense. Getting just what he needs from rookie QB Mac Jones. And in middle of AFC playoff hunt. Still a coin-flip game but give me Coach G.O.A.T. against banged-up Brownies now likely also missing star RB Nick Chubb to a positive COVID-19 test.
Bills (5-3, -12) over @Jets (2-6), 28-13: Mike White starts again at QB for Planes with Zach Wilson (knee) still limited. In any case, expect the catapult of a big Buffalo bounceback effort after last week’s embarrassing anomaly of a 9-6 loss to Jaguars. Good day for Jets to remind us how bad they are.
@Steelers (5-3, -9) over Lions (0-8), 24-9: Detroit is off a bye and Pitt off a Monday nighter, but disparity in rest/prep won’t help winless Lions much here. Motown has lost five straight in this series — and nine straight trips to Steel City. Watch T.J. Watt terrorize Jared Goff, and Najee Harris slice majorly through the Lions’ very weak run defense.
Buccaneers (6-2, -9 1/2) over @Washington (2-6), 27-20: Both teams are off bye weeks, but Washington is on a 3-10 skid following a week off, while Tampa flies in on a 10-2 run on the road. Still, Washers played Bucs tough in a playoff loss last year, 31-23, and I’m leaning No-Name ‘dogs with points again. Tom Brady could be missing Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown and Gronk to injuries.
@Cardinals (8-1, -10 1/2) over Panthers (4-5), 28-14: Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins remain questionable after sitting out Week 9 with injuries. P.J. Walker starts at QB for Carolina, not a huge dropoff, because Sam Darnold is that bad. Panthers have won five straight over Cards and it’s a 5-2 Cats run in the desert, but those trends end. Pick presumes Murray plays; if not, a Carolina cover may be the play.
Vikings (3-5, +3) over @Chargers (5-3), 34-30: Upset! (“Aawwk!”) See Viking Dalvin Cook using domestic abuse allegations against him that he disputes as fuel for big game vs. LAC’s NFL-worst run defense. And Kirk Cousins has 11 TDs and a 111.3 passer rating in four road games this year. Also see Vikes’ pass rush bothering Justin Herbert. Minnesota’s five losses are all to good teams and by 18 combined points.
@Broncos (5-4, -2 1/2) over Eagles (3-6), 23-20: Denver faces letdown after stunning Cowboys (and bettors) last week. Philly is sneaky-good for its record and an upset is big in play. I lean on Denver’s D at home in this one, but if Birds can force a turnover or two from Teddy Bridgewater (never a remote possibility), the script flips.
Chiefs (5-4, -2 1/2) over @Raiders (5-3), 30-20: Coach Jon Gruden resigns in email scandal, top receiver Henry Ruggs III is cut after DUI fatality, now CB Damon Arnette is cut after waving a gun in a threatening video. Raiders are a dumpster fire of controversy. Meanwhile the magic has left Kansas City and what the hell is wrong with Patrick Mahomes!? You wanted a soap opera, Sunday night booth? You got one. Vegas a trendy upset pick by my professional brethren but I’m not buyin’. Watch Mahomes put on a show.
[Note: Betting lines are courtesy Caesars Sportsbook as of mid-afternoon Thursday] .
Bye weeks:
Bears (3-6; next vs. Ravens): Chitown is skidding downhill with four straight losses, and it doesn’t get any easier with Lamar Jackson waiting on deck.
Bengals (5-4; next @Raiders): Two straight L’s including last week’s spanking by rival Browns have left Cincy scrambling to get back its misplaced mojo.
Giants (3-6; next @Buccaneers): NYG’s defense has been improved the past few games, but can it stay that way facing a Monday night date with Tom Brady?
Texans (1-8; next @Titans): Five takeaways in Miami last week and you still lose. Season from hell continues. If it were possible, Houston would lose to the bye week.
