Everyone loves to throw out draft grades in the hours and days after the annual event (you can find our grades on the 2023 draft here), but how often do these experts hit the mark? To find out, we turned back the clock and went back to look at the New Orleans Saints draft grades running back to 2016, featuring takes from two of the longest-tenured draft analysts: ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. and CBS Sports’ Pete Prisco. Let’s see how they did:
2016 NFL draft
Mel Kiper Jr., ESPN: B-minus. Jeff Ireland was brought in during the 2015 offseason to take over the Saints’ college scouting department, but he didn’t hire his own scouts until the 2016 draft, so this is where we’ll start. It was solid from start to finish. Obviously Michael Thomas turned out to be a better pick than Kiper or anyone else could imagine, but some of the defenders he liked better at that spot aren’t even in the league anymore, like Su’a Cravens (No. 53) and T.J. Green (No. 57). Kiper lauded Vonn Bell’s ball skills (he intercepted 9 passes in 36 college games) but the safety didn’t pick off his first pass with the Saints until his 62nd game in the NFL, including the playoffs. Kiper’s take:
I’m not sure there was a player more consistently placed with a team in mock drafts of Todd and mine than Sheldon Rankins to the Saints, and I think they made a good decision to add him. He can be a disruptive force on the interior as they continue a defensive rebuild. After that the Saints got a pair of Buckeyes, I just think the order could have been flipped in terms of value. Michael Thomas has a lot of potential and should start early in New Orleans, but I hate passing on defense there given what was available. That said, Vonn Bell at No. 61 is a steal on my board. Yep, he needs to be more physical, but they guy has instincts and ball skills from the safety position. David Onyemata is a developmental player coming from Canada, where New Orleans went before to draft Akiem Hicks. Daniel Lasco is a workout warrior who could surprise if he can stay healthy. Not a bad draft, with the emphasis mostly where it should be — on defense. An outside linebacker would have been nice, but you only have so many picks.
Pete Prisco, CBS: B-minus. This was seen as a very solid draft at the time, though like other analysts Prisco didn’t see Michael Thomas developing into a superstar:
Best pick: I loved their first-round choice of Louisville defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins. He will be a nice addition inside to a defense that needed help.
Questionable move: It would be easy to question them picking a kid out of a Canadian school, which they did in the fourth round with Manitoba’s David Onyemata. But the Saints hit on Akiem Hicks, a kid out of Canada, a few years ago.
Third-day gem: Sixth-round pick Daniel Lascoe, a running back from Cal, was a productive runner and should come in and get spot duty as a rookie.
Analysis: They nailed their first-round pick with Rankins, and I like Michael Thomas in the second round, but the rest of the draft was just OK. If Vonn Bell can take over as one of the starters at safety, then the grade will be higher.
2017 NFL draft
Mel Kiper Jr., ESPN: B. This is the highest grade Kiper has given the Saints since Jeff Ireland was hired to overhaul the scouting department in 2015, and even then he doubted the Alvin Kamara pick given the depth at the position. He wasn’t a fan of trading Brandin Cooks away even if the Saints got an immediate starter in return with Ryan Ramczyk. He missed big on Marcus Williams, though, believing Malik Hooker in Round 1 would have been a better choice. Hooker is currently a backup with 11 career interceptions while Williams is a top-paid starter with 19. He had this to say of the 2017 draft as a whole:
The Saints had an extra first-round pick because they traded Brandin Cooks to the Patriots for the No. 32 pick overall, noted at the top because Cooks has 315 catches in three seasons. With two first-rounders, you really have to be looking for a couple of players with the ability to make an impact relatively soon (especially for a team coming off a third straight 7-9 season), and I think the Saints got that done. Marshon Lattimore comes with what I’d call an orange flag — not quite red — because of lingering hamstring issues, but if he’s healthy, he’s the top cornerback in the draft. This is an exceptional athlete (4.38 40) who can look effortless. Put the Malcolm Butler trade talk to bed.
Ryan Ramczyk is a reasonable selection at No. 32 overall, given that left tackle Terron Armstead has dealt with injuries and right tackle Zach Strief is almost 34. Ramczyk has the ability to play right away (better if it’s on the right side), but he also carries some risk, as his hip has been a problem. The secondary was a priority, and Marcus Williams isn’t a far cry from what Malik Hooker brings — and much further down the board.
A big question mark here was the value given up to draft Alvin Kamara. Even if you question any possibilities beyond 2017 for Mark Ingram or Adrian Peterson, trading a second-rounder to move up and take my No. 88 overall player is iffy. Give them this: The backfield is officially loaded.
I like Alex Anzalone, and if he’s healthy, he can help, but the injury history is significant with three major injuries at Florida. A potential steal here is Trey Hendrickson, who was a monster in Conference USA.
Overall, you have to like the fact that there are two potential immediate starters (if needed, in Ramczyk’s case) out of Round 1 and an emphasis on defense. But we can’t forget this draft involves the departure of a Pro Bowl player in Cooks and now a second-round pick the Saints don’t have in 2018.
Pete Prisco, CBS: B. Alvin Kamara was an afterthought for Prisco in this class, with most of his criticism leveled at the Ryan Ramczyk pick, which he didn’t see as a need (Ramczyk then started every game as a rookie when Terron Armstead and Zach Strief missed time with injuries):
They probably thought they had no chance to get Ohio State corner Marshon Lattimore when the draft started, but they end up getting him in the 11th spot. That was a nice pick of the top corner. I didn’t love the pick of Wisconsin tackle Ryan Ramczyk with the 32nd pick — he has some medical issues and is that really a major need? — but they added some nice players later in Utah safety Marcus Williams in the second and pass rusher Troy Hendrickson in third. I also think third-round linebacker Alex Anzalone from Florida has a chance to a long-time starter if he stays healthy. That’s a big if, based on his career
2018 NFL draft
Mel Kiper Jr., ESPN: C-plus. This was the big Marcus Davenport trade, and Kiper was skeptical it would work out, and it didn’t. That skepticism extended to their other picks and history has shown us it was warranted: the last player remaining from this draft class is Tre’Quan Smith, and Saints fans have been trying to get him out of town at every opportunity. Kiper’s explanation:
Well, I get it. They have a big need, and they’re going for it. I also have to grade these in a vacuum, and by that measure this class is a big question mark. The Saints gave up a whopper of a package — next year’s first-round pick and a 2018 fifth-rounder — to move up to take Marcus Davenport, a pass-rusher out of Texas-San Antonio. The kid’s got upside, but that’s serious value. This after they were already down a second-rounder in this draft due to a previous trade. Tre’Quan Smith (pick 91) was a decent value at a need position — can Ted Ginn Jr. play forever? — and Rick Leonard (127) is an interesting bet at tackle. Kamrin Moore (189) has the chance to stick in this secondary, though it’s not nearly as thin back there as it was a couple of years ago.
The Saints are a Super Bowl contender. It’s clear they feel added pass-rush help could be a difference-maker in that pursuit. If Drew Brees gets another Lombardi, it’ll all be worth it. If not, they gave up a lot.
Pete Prisco, CBS: C-plus. Prisco rightfully pointed out that Marcus Davenport would be a critical player for the Saints and the main reason this draft class would be seen as a success or failure:
They mold a bold move to trade up with Green Bay — including giving up next year’s first-round pick — to take edge rusher Marcus Davenport with the 14th overall pick. He has the ability to be a double-digit sack player, and he fills a need, but he needs some seasoning. They didn’t have a second-round pick — traded away for the chance to draft Alvin Kamara last year — so they had to be patient. Third-round receiver Tre’Quan Smith will give them some more speed on offense. After last year’s draft it’s hard to knock them, but they better hope Davenport is a star
2019 NFL draft
Mel Kiper Jr., ESPN: C-plus. The Saints were limited without their first- and third-round picks after trading for Marcus Davenport and Teddy Bridgewater in hopes of reaching a Super Bowl the previous season, and they nearly went the distance. Kiper was right to identify C.J. Gardner-Johnson as a steal at the time, and he approved of the Erik McCoy pick, even if it made Nick Easton a little redundant (he wound up starting seven games in relief of Andrus Peat through the back half of the season). His quick take on their 2019 draft:
McCoy is my top-ranked center, and Payton said that’s where the Saints plan to play him. Now, where does free-agent signing Nick Easton play? Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (No. 105), who could play some nickelback, might be a Day 3 steal. He was No. 58 overall on my board. Alize Mack (No. 231) is worth a seventh-round flier as an intriguing tight end.
Ultimately, this is a team trying to maximize a Super Bowl window not just before the Brees timeline hits a wall, but with possible monster deals for Michael Thomas and Cameron Jordan on the horizon.
Pete Prisco, CBS: B-minus. There’s not much to say given how few selections the Saints were able to make:
Best pick: It was trading up to land center Erik McCoy in the second round. They had to get a replacement for the retired Max Ungar.
Worst pick: There wasn’t one because they didn’t have a lot of picks.
The skinny: They didn’t have many picks because of deals, but I liked what they did with their first two, getting McCoy and safety Chauncey Gardner-Johnson. Their first-round pick went to Green Bay in the trade for Marcus Davenport. He needs to play big this season.
2020 NFL draft
Mel Kiper Jr., ESPN: C-plus. Kiper was skeptical about Zack Baun’s fit in the Saints defense, and he was right on target. The third-rounder has played 82, 194, and 83 defensive snaps through three years as the team struggles to figure out where to play him. He excelled as a pass rusher in college but they’re determined to make him more of a coverage player, and it just hasn’t worked out.
Kiper suggested a first-round receiver may have been a better pick than Cesar Ruiz, and in hindsight the Saints were foolish to pass on Brandon Aiyuk (No. 25), Tee Higgins (No. 33), and Michael Pittman Jr. (No. 34) in favor of a young center who they needed to teach to play guard, even if Larry Warford was in rapid decline. He was right about Adam Trautman’s limitations and the poorly-conceived trade for Tommy Stevens, too. Sean Payton’s ego got the better of him in this draft. His take on their overall haul:
I’m high on center Cesar Ruiz (24), whom I ranked as the clear top interior offensive lineman in this class, and he has some experience at guard. He could end up there with last year’s second-round pick, Erik McCoy, playing so well at center as a rookie. One thing that bothers shorter quarterbacks like Drew Brees is interior pressure, and New Orleans is trying to shore that up as it goes all-in for 2020. I have other needs higher for the Saints — particularly wide receiver — but I do like Ruiz.
The Saints used trades for their other three picks, including adding next year’s third-rounder, to move up to get outside linebacker Zack Baun (74) and tight end Adam Trautman (105). Baun is an interesting fit in Dennis Allen’s defense; is he a defensive end or a versatile linebacker? I thought he’d be great as an OLB in a 3-4. Either way, it’s good value for Baun, who is my No. 31 overall player. The 6-foot-5 Trautman, my second-ranked tight end, caught 70 passes last season and is really just a jumbo wide receiver at this point, but that could be useful in Sean Payton’s offense.
It appears the Saints will try to use quarterback Tommy Stevens (240) in some sort of Taysom Hill role, but he is my 18th-ranked quarterback. I’ll believe he gets on the field when I see it. New Orleans tried for quality over quantity here, but it’s tough for a class with four picks to break into the B range.
Pete Prisco, CBS: B-minus. Prisco had high expectations for Zack Baun, but he hasn’t been able to get on the field in three years with the Saints. Much of that is due to a poor vision for the player by the coaching staff, though.
Best Pick: Third-round linebacker Zack Baun will be a good player — a nice versatile one for the defense. He can play outside and inside and is tough. They traded up to get him, so he better be good.
Worst Pick: I love the center/guard Cesar Ruiz as a player. But was he really needed by this team right now? I know Larry Warford is in the final year of his deal at right guard, but I think Ruiz would be better suited to playing center.
The Skinny: They had just three picks before trading back into the seventh for a quarterback, and I like the players they took, but Ruiz in the first was a little off. Baun and third-round tight end Adam Trautman should be early contributors.
2021 NFL draft
Mel Kiper Jr., ESPN: C-plus. Kiper felt that the Saints passed on more immediate help to get Payton Turner where they did, which has been proven accurate. All three of the pass rushers picked after Turner in Round 1 have been more effective, and some of the defensive backs like Tyson Campbell (No. 33) and Jevon Holland (No. 36) or slot receiver Elijah Moore (No. 34) may have been better picks. The mid-round quarterback he liked better than Ian Book, Jamie Newman, is currently in the CFL. Kiper’s writeup:
I like Payton Turner (28), but I would have liked him more in Round 2. There were wide receivers and corners on the board who could have made a bigger Year 1 impact than Turner, who is better against the run and is still developing as a pass-rusher. I don’t see him as a starter over Cam Jordan or Marcus Davenport.
Linebacker Pete Werner (60), though, has a chance to be the starting middle linebacker in New Orleans. He locked down Penn State’s Pat Freiermuth in coverage, and he has some range. Paulson Adebo (76) is a 6-foot-1 corner who opted out of last season. He has an inconsistent 2019 season, but he has top-50 traits. Sean Payton & Co. took quarterback Ian Book (133) on Day 3, and I had a seventh-round grade on him. I would have taken Jamie Newman. Book’s ceiling is as a backup.
That’s a lot of reaches on my board and not much value, from Rounds 1-7. And they didn’t take a receiver until late on Day 3. Sorry, Saints fans — I don’t love this class.
Pete Prisco, CBS: C. Prisco wasn’t high on this class either, but he felt Werner was limited to special teams; he’s easily the best player the Saints drafted this year. Prisco was rightfully critical of reaching on Payton Turner so early, though:
Best pick: Third-round corner Paulson Adebo is a talented player who saw his career level off a bit at Stanford. The Saints will need him to play like he did early in his career.
Worst pick: I am not a big fan of taking Ohio State linebacker Pete Werner in the second round. He will be good on special teams, but he can get engulfed as a linebacker.
The skinny: They reached on two players in the first two rounds with Werner in the second and Payton Turner in the first. Both have talent, but they went too high. Taking Notre Dame quarterback Ian Book in the fourth is an interesting pick.
2022 NFL draft
Mel Kiper Jr., ESPN: B-minus. Kiper expected Trevor Penning to start from the minute he was drafted, and obviously that hasn’t happened. Not because of injuries, though (or at least not only because of his health issues); Penning was raw coming out of college and couldn’t unseat James Hurst at left tackle before going down. Kiper also regarded Taylor as a mid-round prospect at safety, not his college position at corner, and that looks rough in hindsight. Taylor was exceptional in relief of Marshon Lattimore last season and looks like a starting corner moving forward.
Turns out, it did, as general manager Mickey Loomis sent the No. 16 pick and the team’s third-round choice to get wide receiver Chris Olave (11), one of the best deep threats in this class. Michael Thomas should be back in 2022, but the Saints’ passing game was abysmal without him last season; so getting Olave — right in the middle of the Round 1 run on wideouts — was necessary if Jameis Winston is to have a chance to succeed. With their other pick, they snagged a Day 1 starter at left tackle in Trevor Penning (19), a mauler who will replace Terron Armstead.
The only issue with the Saints’ Day 1 is all the capital it took to add these two prospects; even if they’re starters, they had better play like above-average rookies early and often. The Saints also must feel like Winston can carry them this season, because I would have at least considered a quarterback on Day 2. I’m not as sold on Winston, but at least they set him up for success in the first round.
New Orleans reached for my 11th-ranked safety Alontae Taylor (49) on Day 2, and it had just two picks in Rounds 4 to 7. Mortgaging the future of the franchise for Olave strikes me as risky, and the Saints still aren’t set up long term at quarterback.
Pete Prisco, CBS: B. Prisco also expected Penning to start from Day 1, and he criticized the Saints for picking Taylor over cornerback Coby Byrant, who went to the Seattle Seahawks in Round 4. Per Pro Football Focus charting, Bryant was targeted 67 times and allowed 50 receptions for 515 yards and 2 touchdowns, breaking up 4 passes. Taylor was targeted 64 times and yielded 29 receptions for 283 yards and broke up 8 passes without allowing a touchdown. Prisco’s full writeup:
Best Pick: Offensive tackle Trevor Penning, the second of their two first-round picks, will be a plug-and-play at left tackle. They needed to fill that spot and they landed an aggressive player to do so.
Worst Pick: I didn’t love the pick of second-round corner Alontae Taylor. They could have waited to get a player like Cincinnati’s Coby Bryant.
The Skinny: They moved up in the first round to land receiver Chris Olave, a good player with speed that was needed. Penning will be a good player, and keep an eye on fifth-round linebacker D’Marco Jackson. He can run.
