JPMorgan is doubling down on gold. This time, AngloGold Ashanti PLC (NYSE:AU) is leading the charge.
While the yellow metal is up a glittering 28% year-to-date, gold miners have gone full supernova. Fresnillo Plc's (OTCPK: FNLPF) 158% rally has been the talk of the town, but JPMorgan analyst Patrick Jones just made a surprising switch: AngloGold is now his Top Pick, replacing the Mexican miner that has dominated headlines.
$4,000/Oz Forecast That's Fueling The Fire
JPMorgan's commodities team is calling for gold to hit $4,000 an ounce by mid-2026, citing strong, sticky demand from central banks and investors. Net buying is averaging 710 tons per quarter, with Chinese buyers and gold ETFs driving the increase. Add in geopolitical and policy uncertainty, and Jones contends that the gold bull is far from exhausted.
He sees low downside risk to gold demand, even in a soft macroeconomic environment, thanks to steady central bank accumulation—900 tons are expected in 2025 alone.
Good news for those invested in the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:GLD), the iShares Gold Trust (NYSE:IAU) and the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:GDX).
Read Also: Something Big Is Brewing In Gold, Stocks, And The Dollar: JPMorgan’s Half-Year 2025 Outlook
Why AngloGold Now?
It's not just the macro. AngloGold has momentum, up 97% year-to-date and is poised to continue delivering. Jones forecasts second-quarter free cash flow of $575 million and sees potential for a 6% dividend yield if management accelerates payouts tied to higher gold prices.
Capex remains high, but that's due to growth initiatives, such as the Obuasi ramp-up and the upcoming scoping study at North Bullfrog. Jones expects these updates to be front and center when the company reports its half-year results on August 1.
With a low leverage profile, robust cash generation and optionality on even higher gold prices, Jones says AngloGold's re-rating still has legs. He estimates 60–70% upside to fair value if gold crosses $4,000 an ounce—a scenario JPMorgan sees as increasingly likely.
And The Others?
Fresnillo still sparkles, up 158% YTD, but the peso headwind and already stretched valuation leave less room for surprise. Hochschild Mining Plc (OTCPK: HCHDF) is up +44% YTD) and Gold Fields Ltd (NYSE:GFI) is up 72%. They remain in the running, with the former facing near-term production hiccups.
But for now, the spotlight is firmly on AngloGold. In Jones's view, it's not just catching the gold wave – it's surfing ahead of it.
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