Asian stocks opened lower as oil edged higher, with investors continuing to watch developments in US-Iran peace talks.
MSCI Inc.’s gauge of regional shares fell as much as 0.2% in early trading. S&P 500 futures also edged lower after a slide in megacap tech stocks and rising bond yields dragged the benchmark down 0.4% Monday. SpaceX shares slipped for a third straight day, shedding hundreds of billions of dollars in value. Brent crude prices rose slightly to trade above $78 a barrel.
The US issued a 60-day license allowing Iran to sell oil on the international market, giving Tehran an economic lifeline as the two adversaries are poised to continue discussions to reach a permanent peace deal.
Meanwhile, Vice President JD Vance described the first round of negotiations with Iran as “very, very good” and said Tehran had agreed to allow nuclear inspectors back into the country. But officials from the Islamic Republic, who also cited progress, challenged that claim, saying Vance’s assertion was “false and does not reflect reality.”
While geopolitical developments are likely to remain a key source of volatility in the near term, shifts in investor confidence regarding the durability of the AI rally may also lead to bouts of market swings, according to Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi at UBS Chief Investment Office.
Expectations that an agreement will be reached, as well as the revival of the AI trade and solid corporate earnings, have fueled a 14% advance in the S&P 500 Index this quarter. However, that trails the 26% surge in the MSCI Asia Pacific Index.
Treasuries fell on Monday as trading resumed following a US public holiday, even as oil prices turned lower Iran said there had been “major progress” in all-night discussions with the US. Strategists cited Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh’s hawkish messaging last week as one of the reasons for the selling pressure.
In currency markets, the Japanese yen lingered near its lowest level since 1986 as investors weighed the prospects for a lasting US-Iran peace deal and the risk of intervention by Japanese authorities. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed after rising 0.2% on Monday.
SpaceX plunged 16% after saying it’s selling investment-grade bonds in what’s expected to be a massive borrowing spree. Its bond sale is the latest in a wave of deals from companies driving the AI boom. Alphabet, Amazon.com Inc. and others have raised more than $300 billion of debt tied to AI since November across multiple credit markets. The rocket firm is seeking to raise at least $20 billion, Bloomberg reported.
“The issue that stands out the most is the idea that the hyperscalers continue to receive an extremely low return on investment on their colossal level of spending on AI,” said Matt Maley at Miller Tabak. “Another big concern surrounds the issue of ‘circular investments,’ where companies invest in each other, while also committing to buying each other’s products.”
Elsewhere, Andy Burnham appears set to become the UK’s seventh prime minister in a decade after Keir Starmer laid out a timeline for his own departure and potential rivals backed a quick transition to the popular Manchester politician. While markets showed little reaction to the resignation, they were buoyed by reduced odds of a leadership contest that could have prolonged uncertainty.
