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Evening Standard
Evening Standard
Politics
Tom Herbert

General election odds: UK vote in 2019 'extremely likely' amid Brexit turmoil

Speculation that a general election will be held this year is growing after bookies slashed the odds on a 2019 vote.

Some firms have priced the likelihood that a general election will be held before the year is out as low as 1/6, making it the odds on favourite that the UK will go to the polls before December 31.

It comes after a senior government source said Mr Johnson could hold one on October 14 if he is defeated by a cross-party bill on Tuesday aiming to stop a no-deal Brexit.

The move will see an alliance of MPs aiming to take charge of Commons business to allow them to debate legislation forcing Boris Johnson to seek a three-month delay to Brexit.

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If rebel MPs seize control of parliamentary proceedings, it could lead to a snap general election on October 14.

And according to Oddschecker, the likelihood that one will be held this year is extremely high after all the bookies slashed the odds on a vote happening in 2019.

Betfair, Betvictor, Paddypower and William Hill have all priced it at 1/6, meaning there's an 86.75 change a general election will take place this year.

Meanwhile Ladbrokes, Coral and Betfred are at 1/5 and Skybet is at 2/9.

Marathon Bet have listed the odds on a 2019 general election at 9/50 and Unibet have it at 11/50.

Elsewhere, 2020 is the second most likely year for the next general election with firms including Ladbrokes, Marathon Bet and Coral pricing this at 4/1. Skybet and Betfred have it priced at 9/2 while William Hill, Betfair and Paddy Power have it at 7/2.

Next year is followed by 2022 at 22/1 and then 2021 at 50/1.

If the bookies are right with their predicitions and a general election does take place this year, the Conservatives are heavy favourites with Ladbrokes, William Hill and Coral listing them as low as 1/3 to win the most seats.

Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party follow in second with most firms pricing them at 7/2, followed by The Brexit Party and the Lib Dems.

Meanwhile the odds are lengthening on a no-deal Brexit, with Betfair and Paddy Power listing this at 5/4 to happen in 2019. Both firms have odds of 4/7 for an agreement to be ratified, Article 50 extended before 2019 or Article 50 revoked.

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