A massive fire at Viva Energy’s Geelong refinery has put a spotlight on just how vulnerable Australia’s fuel safety net really is.
Experts say there’s no need to panic-buy, but the incident is a clear warning about how stretched and import‑reliant our fuel network has become.
Here’s what actually happened and what it means for the future of fuel in Australia.
What happened at the Geelong refinery?
A major fire broke out at Viva Energy’s refinery in Corio, near Geelong, just after 11pm on Wednesday, with reports of explosions and flames coming from the site. It took more than 12 hours to fully extinguish and has been described as an “unprecedented” incident at one of Australia’s last two remaining oil refineries. All staff on site — about 50 people — were accounted for and escaped unharmed, but nearby residents were told to stay indoors while firefighters brought the blaze under control.
The refinery is old, originally built in the 1950s, and processes up to 120,000 barrels of oil a day, producing petrol, diesel, LPG and jet fuel. Viva has said the fire was caused by an equipment failure that led to a gas leak, which then ignited. The exact cause is still under investigation.
How important is this refinery?
The Geelong refinery is a big player in our fuel system. Swinburne transport expert Professor Hussein Dia told PEDESTRIAN.TV that the refinery “supplies around 10 per cent of the fuel across the nation and 50 per cent locally in Victoria”, and that the fire has come at “really bad timing” given the global fuel crunch.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said the blaze has temporarily cut petrol production at the site, with “80 per cent of diesel production” and “80 per cent of aviation fuel” still continuing, and about “60 per cent of petrol production” proceeding. Energy Minister Chris Bowen has also confirmed that diesel and jet fuel are still being produced, but at reduced levels as a precaution.
Will drivers feel this at the bowser?
Right now, this is more of a slow burn pricing story than a sudden run-on-the-pumps situation. Professor Dia said fuel prices are “largely driven by the global markets”, but local incidents like a refinery outage “can still put upward pressure on prices by increasing reliance on imports”. In Victoria, he expects “some upward pressure on fuel prices maybe, particularly for petrol”, but stressed that it “may not be immediate or dramatic” because “we still import a large share of the fuel” and supply will continue to flow through international markets.
He also pointed out that what happens next depends heavily on geopolitics, saying any changes at the bowser will be shaped by “the international situation” and whether “common sense prevails politically in the Middle East”. At this stage, he told PEDESTRIAN.TV “there is no immediate… repercussions” for everyday motorists, especially with the refinery still maintaining about 80 per cent of diesel production and 60 per cent of petrol production.
The federal government has tried to reinforce that message. Albanese said the Corio fire would not push Australia into tougher “stage three” measures under the national fuel plan and that “the event here will not lead to any change” in current restrictions. Australia remains at level two, where motorists are encouraged to “only buy the fuel you need” to help manage demand and limit unnecessary pressure on prices.
What does this say about Australia’s fuel safety net?
Underneath the immediate fire footage is a bigger story about how exposed Australia is when something goes wrong. Professor Dia told PEDESTRIAN.TV that “we import 90 per cent of the liquid fuels we use” and that “around 50 per cent of that is used for road transport”.
He describes Australia as a “diesel economy”, saying “we consume 60 per cent… of the fossil fuel used is actually diesel”, which is higher than many major economies because of our long-distance freight and truck movements.
He sees the Geelong incident as a “wake-up call” about our dependence on overseas fuel. While Australia doesn’t import much crude directly from the Middle East, he says we rely on refined fuel from countries like Malaysia, South Korea and Brunei, “and these countries in turn basically rely on importing their crude oil from the Middle East”.
In his words, “the Middle East is one choke point” and the fire shows “we are part of that supply chain”, even if we feel far away from the conflict zones.
For him, the structural issue is simple: “we are relying still too much on liquid fuels”. He argues the best way to improve energy security is to “see more electrification of transport”, especially electric vehicles and, over time, cleaner options for trucks. Right now, he notes Australia is “still sitting at 10 to 14 pe rcent of new vehicle sales being EVs compared to 50 per cent in China, compared to 80 per cent in some of the Nordic countries”, and says that as more of our transport runs on locally produced electricity — ideally from renewables — our system becomes both more resilient and less exposed to global oil shocks.
In the meantime, Dia says governments need to keep managing demand and building resilience while longer-term solutions like biofuels and new technologies are still being developed.
Drawing on his experience living through fuel rationing in Jordan during the Gulf War, he warned that forced measures such as carpooling and odd-even driving restrictions “can be ugly” and said he hopes Australia “doesn’t get to a rationing stage” if people and governments take sensible steps now.
Lead image: Nine
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