Tom Brady might be the best quarterback ever, but he’s not the best in the NFL right now. He certainly won’t be the best in 2022.
He’s human, after all, and at age 42, regression is inevitable even for someone with six Super Bowl rings. That puts the New England Patriots in an uncertain situation at quarterback two or three years down the road. The New Orleans Saints, with 40-year-old Drew Brees under center, find themselves in a similar scenario.
Other teams, such as the Chicago Bears and Carolina Panthers, likely will face difficult personnel decisions at the quarterback position much sooner than that. Only a handful of teams, notably the Kansas City Chiefs and Seattle Seahawks, appear secure in their quarterback situation for years to come.
All this got us thinking about the quarterback situations of the future — and where each of the NFL’s 32 teams ranks in terms of preparedness at the game’s most crucial position.
By quarterback situations, we mean the full overview of each team’s quarterbacks group, including backups and a potential succession plan, if necessary. For this exercise, we will define the future as three to four years down the road.
To help form these opinions, we consulted with a blue-ribbon panel of one former head coach, two former general managers and one current general manager. They were asked for their thoughts on each team’s quarterback situation. They provided insight to inform our rankings.
With that in mind, we present Touchdown Wire’s future quarterback rankings for every NFL team, from worst to first:
32. Miami Dolphins
Earlier this season, many observers accused the Dolphins of tanking to earn the No. 1 pick in the 2020 NFL Draft and presumably select a quarterback. Since then, Miami (2-8) has been eclipsed by the ineptitude of Cincinnati (0-10) and Washington (1-9), so the Dolphins might not get the first QB off the board. Currently, the Dolphins have Ryan Fitzpatrick and Josh Rosen on their roster. Rosen has failed in his playing time. There’s no way he’ll be back next year. The Dolphins have the option to hang onto Fitzpatrick, 36, who’s currently under contract next season at $5.5 million. It makes sense to keep Fitzpatrick around for one more year to help groom a young quarterback. That could be LSU’s Joe Burrow, Alabama’s Tua Tagavailoa (although his recent hip injury now complicates his draft status), Oregon’s Justin Herbert or Oklahoma’s Jalen Hurts. Two members of my panel said they like Burrow better than Tagovailoa. Either way, it’s going to take some time to develop a young quarterback.
31. Chicago Bears
For the moment, Mitchell Trubisky is Chicago’s starting quarterback. But it doesn’t appear that he will be in that role next year — although he remains under contract and the team holds a fifth-year option on the No. 2 overall pick from 2017. Given his level of play this season, it’s highly unlikely he will receive the option year, and he might not even see 2020 with the Bears — although the cap hit for cutting him would be slightly more than $9 million. The Bears are 4-6 after going 12-4 last year. There’s one main reason for the decline. That’s Trubisky. My panelists say he’s holding the offense back and could end up keeping a good team out of the playoffs. All four panelists agree Trubisky should be nothing more than a backup. Current backup Chase Daniel’s contract expires after this season. So there’s no telling who will be Chicago’s quarterback next year. Maybe the Bears will draft a quarterback. But with a talented roster already in place, the Bears should be first in line to sign New Orleans backup Teddy Bridgewater as a free agent.
30. Cincinnati Bengals
Veteran Andy Dalton has been benched, and the Bengals are giving rookie fourth-rounder Ryan Finley a shot. There should be no turning back to Dalton, even though he remains under contract for 2020 with a $17.5 million scheduled salary. The Bengals can cut Dalton after the season without any salary cap ramifications. It’s too early to judge Finley. Cincinnati is going to end up with an early draft pick and could have a shot at Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert or Jalen Hurts. The Bengals will be starting over. But, given their current state, that’s not a bad thing. “Dalton had more than enough time and couldn’t win consistently,” one panelist said. “I have no idea what they have in Finley. But they have to draft a quarterback if they’re sitting there at No. 1 or 2.”
29. Washington Redskins
The current situation is a mess. Veterans Colt McCoy and Case Keenum, who clearly aren’t the answer, each is in the last year of their contract. The Redskins have little choice but to play rookie Dwayne Haskins, who has five interceptions and two touchdown passes, the rest of this season. Call it an audition for Haskins. But this situation is complicated because the Redskins currently have interim coach Bill Callahan, who took over when Jay Gruden was fired. There will be a new coach next year, and he might not like Haskins. With an early draft pick likely, the new coach might want his own guy. Give up on Haskins after only one season? Arizona did it with 2018 first-round pick Josh Rosen after drafting Kyler Murray. All four of our panelists said Haskins was overrated when he was drafted.
28-25 / 24-21 / 20-17 / 16-13 / 12-9 / 8-5 / 4-1
28. Tennessee Titans
The Titans likely will be starting over next year. Marcus Mariota’s time in Tennessee is almost over. The No. 2-overall pick in 2015 had his chance and didn’t cut it. He was benched a month ago, and he’s scheduled to become a free agent after the season. Ryan Tannehill has taken over as the starter and has won three of four games. But his contract also is up at the end of the season. It’s possible Tannehill could be re-signed, but the Titans aren’t going to hand him the starting job. If they keep Tannehill, they’ll probably look for someone to compete with him for the first-team role. Our panel isn’t high on Tannehill, but the consensus is that he’s good enough to compete for a starting job.
27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs would love nothing more than for Jameis Winston to suddenly catch fire and become the first quarterback the team has drafted ever to sign a second contract with the club. But Winston has had 4½ seasons to show he can be a franchise quarterback, and he hasn’t done it. Why would that change over the last half of the season? It won’t. That’s going to put the Bucs in a difficult situation in the offseason. They could decide to draft a quarterback, because backup Ryan Griffin never will be a candidate to start. But bringing in a rookie quarterback would mean starting over and several more losing seasons for the Bucs. The likely scenario is the Bucs put the franchise tag on Winston and give him one more year to work with coach Bruce Arians. Maybe that’s what Winston needs for the lights to go on. Or maybe the Bucs will be looking to draft a quarterback in 2020. “Look, if you haven’t made a decision on this guy by now, that’s probably a sign he’s not your answer,” one panelist said.
26. Denver Broncos
Denver’s quarterback situation is as murky now as it will be in the future. Veteran starter Joe Flacco, who hadn’t played well (six touchdowns and five interceptions), is injured. Brandon Allen is 1-1 in his first two starts, but it’s too early to tell if Allen could be the long-term answer. Flacco’s contract means the Broncos basically are stuck with him in 2020 and ’21. He’s under contract through 2023, but the last two years are voidable. Flacco, 34, clearly isn’t going to take the Broncos to Super Bowls like Peyton Manning and John Elway did late in their careers. The hope in Denver is that Drew Lock, a second-round pick out of Missouri this year, can emerge as the long-term answer.
25. Detroit Lions
The story of Matthew Stafford this season is the same as it’s been throughout his career. He puts up big numbers: 2,499 passing yards and 19 touchdowns this season before a back injury knocked him out of action. “The guy can throw the ball, but he has some bad games. He’s not going to carry you to a Super Bowl by himself. He could get you there with a good team around him. But they don’t have a good team,” a panelist said. Not much is going to change in the short term. Stafford, 31, is under contract through 2022, and the Lions don’t have anyone waiting in the wings. They’re content to stick with Stafford but need to put more talent around him.
32-29 / 24-21 / 20-17 / 16-13 / 12-9 / 8-5 / 4-1
24. New Orleans Saints
If this ranking pertained only to this season, the Saints might be No. 1. They have a future Hall of Famer in Drew Brees and, when he missed five games with a thumb injury, backup Teddy Bridgewater went 5-0. The Saints should have a deep playoff run this year. But, after that, things get cloudy in a hurry. Brees will turn 41 in January. He’s still going strong. It’s difficult to imagine the Saints choosing to keep Bridgewater as the starter over Brees because coach Sean Payton and Brees have such a close working relationship. It’s also difficult to imagine Bridgewater choosing to stay in New Orleans as a backup when he could likely get a starting job in free agency. Third-stringer Taysom Hill never will rise to the starting role. He’s a multipurpose threat and is used mostly on gimmick plays. Unless the Saints find a magical way to keep Bridgewater, it will be time to start looking for an eventual replacement for Brees. “Don’t be surprised if the Saints find a way to keep Bridgewater,” a panelist said. “(General manager Mickey) Loomis and Payton can be very charming. The smart move is to keep Teddy, even if he’s your backup for another year or two until Brees retires. They’ll be willing to throw good cash at him.”
23. New York Jets
It’s been a tough second season for the third overall pick in 2018. Sam Darnold missed three games with mononucleosis and is surrounded by a bad team. He has thrown for 1,600 yards with 11 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Still, Darnold is the quarterback for the foreseeable future. He’s playing on a rookie contract, which is a bargain compared to the market for veterans. Darnold is under contract through 2021, and the team holds an option for 2022. Darnold has to improve, but he’s in no danger of losing his job anytime soon. All four panelists think Darnold has enough upside to become a franchise quarterback if the Jets surround him with more talent.
22. Los Angeles Chargers
This is perhaps the league’s most difficult quarterback situation to assess at this moment. Philip Rivers, 37, is in the last year of his contract. Backup Tyrod Taylor is signed through 2020, but he’s not a long-term answer as the starter. The Chargers likely will try to re-sign Rivers. But it’s time to find his heir apparent. Easton Stick, a fifth-round choice this year out of North Dakota State, is viewed as nothing more than a backup. The Chargers may use an early-round pick on a quarterback with the potential to be a starter. “Keep Rivers if he wants to keep playing. But it’s time to draft a quarterback for the future,” a panelist said. “They’re not going to have a top pick, but they still should be high enough to get a good quarterback.”
21. Minnesota Vikings
Kirk Cousins has been a good quarterback since Week 5, after getting off to a mediocre start. Credit Adam Thielen. The wide receiver publicly criticized Cousins, and the quarterback responded with apologies, literally and figuratively. Cousins, 31, still has one more year on a three-year, $84 million deal that is fully guaranteed. Has Cousins done enough to be rewarded with a big contract by the Vikings? Probably not yet. The rest of this year and next season will determine if Cousins will be back as the starter in 2021. “He’s not a long-term answer, but they have no choice right now,” a panelist said. “Stick with him for one more season and then see where they’re at.”
32-29 / 28-25 / 20-17 / 16-13 / 12-9 / 8-5 / 4-1
20. Indianapolis Colts
The Colts suffered a severe hit in the preseason when franchise quarterback Andrew Luck abruptly retired. Jacoby Brissett has stepped in and taken advantage of the situation, throwing for 1,797 yards and 15 touchdowns with only four interceptions. Brissett might be a viable long-term answer for the Colts. His contract has a $9 million roster bonus in 2020, but the Colts almost certainly will pay it. With a $6 million base salary, Brissett is a bargain for a starting quarterback. But it might be wise for the Colts to work out a long-term extension as soon as possible. “They were fortunate to have (Brissett) when Luck retired,” a panelist said. “He’s a quality starter. Lock him up as soon as you can.”
19. Green Bay Packers
Aaron Rodgers is enjoying a resurgence under new coach Matt LaFleur after feuding with former coach Mike McCarthy. That means the Packers are in great shape at quarterback at the moment, although backup Tim Boyle is an unknown. Rodgers, 35, is so good that he pulls Green Bay’s ranking up. But he’ll be 40 by the time his contract ends after the 2023 season. A decline could start by then, and at some point, the Packers need to find an heir apparent to Rodgers.
18. New York Giants
The Giants drafted Daniel Jones sixth overall this year to be the eventual replacement for Eli Manning. But with the team going nowhere, Jones supplanted Manning as the starter in Week 3 and won his first two starts while looking sharp. Although he’s lost his past six starts, our panel unanimously agrees that Jones will be a success in the long run. Jones is under contract through 2022 with the team holding an option for 2023. “They just need to put more talent around him besides (running back Saquon) Barkley,” one panelist said. Manning won’t be around as the backup next year. But the best thing the Giants can do is bring in another veteran who can serve as a mentor.
17. Oakland Raiders
Rich Gannon was the best quarterback Jon Gruden ever has coached in his previous stint in Oakland and his time in Tampa Bay. But Derek Carr is the first high draft pick that Gruden ever has guided, and he could surpass Gannon. He and Gruden already are off to a good start. Gruden has been notoriously tough on his quarterbacks in the past. But he’s been almost entirely complimentary of Carr, who is completing over 70% of his passes this year for the first time in his career. “Carr is the perfect quarterback for Gruden’s system,” a panelist said. “He’s very solid in the short- and medium-range game. That team is in the middle of making a leap forward and Carr is a big reason why.” Carr is under contract through 2022, providing the franchise with continuity after it moves to Las Vegas next season.
32-29 / 28-25 / 24-21 / 16-13 / 12-9 / 8-5 / 4-1
16. Pittsburgh Steelers
Things will change in Pittsburgh soon. In some ways they already have. Veteran Ben Roethlisberger, who has won two Super Bowls, is out for the season with an elbow injury. Roethlisberger, 37, has said he wants to play again in 2020. But, prior to that, he has talked of retirement several times. Either way, it’s difficult to imagine Roethlisberger playing more than two more years. His contract runs through 2021, but there is an out clause after 2020. Second-year pro Mason Rudolph has gone 4-3 as a starter this season. He has completed 62.3 percent of his passes for 1,551 yards with 12 touchdowns and eight interceptions. “He’s shown he’s efficient. They need to put some more on his plate to see what they’ve really got,” one panelist said.
15. Cleveland Browns
After setting an NFL rookie record with 27 touchdown passes last year, great things were expected from Baker Mayfield, especially after the Browns traded for wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. But Mayfield has regressed, throwing more interceptions (12) than touchdowns (11). But the Browns still view Mayfield, whom they drafted No. 1 overall in 2018, as a franchise quarterback. He almost certainly will be in Cleveland through at least 2022, when his fifth-year option kicks in. “He’s not playing at the same level as last year,” a panelist said. “But I blame the coaching more than anything. There’s no doubt he has the talent.”
14. New England Patriots
This might be the most interesting situation in the league. Tom Brady is 42, so retirement is a possibility at any moment. Brady is under contract through 2021, but the last two years void in March. So Brady essentially is in the last year of his contract. He’s always been able to work out cap-friendly pacts in the past, but there have been speculative reports Brady might want to play somewhere else. Would he really wear another uniform? That’s anyone’s guess. It’s impossible to replace Brady with anyone near his level immediately. The Patriots could go out and sign a veteran free agent. But, if and when Brady decides to retire or go somewhere else, the Patriots are high on rookie Jarrett Stidham, who beat out veteran Brian Hoyer for the backup job in training camp. Our panelists declined to discuss Brady’s future, saying it’s just too uncertain.
13. Philadelphia Eagles
It’s all on Carson Wentz now, after the Eagles let insurance policy Nick Foles leave for Jacksonville as a free agent in the offseason. Josh McCown is the perfect backup for now. He’s smart and can play a little. But McCown is 40. The Eagles coaxed him out of retirement this year, and he might be in Philadelphia for only the rest of this season. They’ll have to find a new backup in the offseason. But Philadelphia’s future depends on Wentz. He’s 26 and under contract through 2024. Wentz has been hurt this year by the injury to deep receiving threat DeSean Jackson. When Jackson returns next year, Wentz will have a chance to become elite.
32-29 / 28-25 / 24-21 / 20-17 / 12-9 / 8-5 / 4-1
12. San Francisco 49ers
Jimmy Garoppolo has led the 49ers to a 9-1 start. Is he the kind of player who can carry a team to a championship? I don’t think so. But he is the kind of quarterback who can win with a good team around him. He currently has a good team around him, especially the defense. Garoppolo is under contract through 2022, when he’ll turn 31. If things keep going well, he’ll get a nice contract extension and will keep the 49ers competitive for a long time. “He’s not the most talented guy,” a panelist said. “But he wins games. I’ll take that any day.”
11. Carolina Panthers
Let’s face reality. Cam Newton probably will be playing elsewhere in 2020. He’s out for the rest of this season with a foot injury and also had major shoulder surgery after last season. Newton appears to be physically spent. In Newton’s absence, they found out that second-year pro Kyle Allen is better than expected. He’s efficient, and has natural leadership skills. He’s played well overall, going 5-3 in eight starts, although he struggled Sunday against Atlanta. Allen has a chance to be Carolina’s quarterback for a long time. The team is also high on third-round draft pick Will Grier. Allen and Grier will be Carolina’s quarterback duo for the foreseeable future, and Allen eventually could get a big contract extension.
10. Los Angeles Rams
The Rams already have shown an enormous amount of faith in Goff. They signed him to his second contract — four years for $134 million. “Even though they got to the Super Bowl last year, I’m not convinced he’s the kind of guy who can carry you to a championship,” one panelist said. “He’s fine with a good team around him. Was he worth that contract? I’m not sure. But the market is what it is.” Nevertheless, the Rams have a talented roster, and they have Goff locked up through 2024.
9. Arizona Cardinals
New coach Kliff Kingsbury and the front office were so infatuated with Kyler Murray that they made an unusual move. They drafted Murray with the No. 1 overall selection just one year after picking Josh Rosen at No. 10. Soon after they picked Murray, they traded Rosen to Miami. Although the Cardinals have only three wins, the move is looking like a smart one. Murray has thrown for 2,703 yards and 14 touchdowns with just five interceptions. He also has rushed for 418 yards and three touchdowns. Like any rookie, Murray has committed mistakes, but he hasn’t looked overwhelmed by his adjustment to the NFL. “He’ll be fine. They just need to put a better team around him,” one panelist said.
32-29 / 28-25 / 24-21 / 20-17 / 16-13 / 8-5 / 4-1
8. Buffalo Bills
Two of our panelists said Josh Allen is the most underrated of the new wave of quarterbacks. He’s efficient as a passer, dangerous as a runner and has the Bills in playoff contention. In just his second season, Allen, 23, has thrown for 2,175 yards and 13 touchdowns and rushed for 331 yards and seven touchdowns. Allen already is a solid quarterback. But all four of our panelists agreed he could become elite within a couple of years.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars signed Nick Foles to a four-year, $88 million deal in the offseason and then saw what looked like a disaster when Foles went down with a broken collarbone in the opener. They had to turn to rookie Gardner Minshew, a sixth-round pick, who threw for 2,285 yards with 13 touchdowns and just four interceptions in nine games. Foles returned as the starter in Week 11, bumping Minshew back to the bench. Both Foles and Minshew are under contract through 2022. There also is the possibility that some team desperate for a starter could trade for Minshew in the offseason. Our panelists agree Minshew has shown enough to be a solid starter somewhere.
6. Houston Texans
The Texans undoubtedly will exercise Deshaun Watson’s fifth-year option for 2021, but they also will be looking to sign him to a long-term extension. At 24, Watson already has shown he’s a franchise quarterback. This season, he has thrown for 2,601 yards and 18 touchdowns while also rushing for 291 yards and five touchdowns. A.J. McCarron is the backup, but the Texans hope Watson never has to leave the field. “Watson already is approaching elite status,” a panelist said. “In two or three years, he’ll be one of the best in the league.”
5. Atlanta Falcons
At 34, Matt Ryan is still going strong. Ryan never has suffered a major injury and has kept himself in good shape. With quarterbacks such as Tom Brady and Drew Brees playing into their 40s, Ryan, who is under contract through 2023, still should be good for at least another four years, although the Falcons might want to find a long-term successor toward the end of that timetable. Current backup Matt Schaub is 38, has limited mobility and not a lot of arm strength. The Falcons should upgrade at backup in the offseason.
32-29 / 28-25 / 24-21 / 20-17 / 16-13 / 12-9 / 4-1
4. Baltimore Ravens
At least in the short term, the Ravens have the best quarterback depth in the league except for the Saints, who have Drew Brees and Teddy Bridgewater. Rising superstar Lamar Jackson is under contract through 2021, but it’s a certainty the Ravens will try to lock him up for the long term soon. Backup Robert Griffin III is under contract through 2020. “His knee problem is in the past, and I think he can still play,” one panelist said of Griffin. Third-stringer Trace McSorley, a rookie from Penn State, is under contract through 2022. But Jackson is the one that matters most. He did enough as a rookie last year to prompt the Ravens to let veteran Joe Flacco go. Jackson clearly has validated that decision with his play this year. He’s thrown for 2,258 yards and 19 touchdowns. Just as importantly, he has rushed for 788 yards and six touchdowns. “As a general rule, you don’t want your quarterback running too much. But this guy is different. He has a knack for avoiding big hits,” a panelist said.
3. Dallas Cowboys
Dak Prescott is only 26 and just entering his prime. He also is in the final year of his rookie contract and could become a free agent. That’s highly unlikely, because owner Jerry Jones is too smart to let Prescott hit the market. The two sides have been talking since the preseason, but nothing has happened yet. However, it will. “He’s way too talented to just let him walk away,” one of our panelists said.
2. Seattle Seahawks
Russell Wilson might be playing better than any other quarterback in the league right now. And it might be the same case in 2023, the last year of his current contract. He’ll turn 35 that year, but still could be playing in his prime. Wilson is having an MVP-type season this year. His backup is Geno Smith at the moment, but Smith is only under contract for this year. It doesn’t matter all that much, because Wilson has been durable. One of our panelists called Wilson a transcendent talent, (“He showed you don’t have to be 6-foot-4 to play quarterback in the NFL, and that’s opened the doors for guys like Kyler Murray.”) The Seahawks aren’t going to let Wilson go anywhere. Barring injury, he’ll sign at least one more contract extension in Seattle.
1. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs currently have the best bargain in the league. Patrick Mahomes, last year’s MVP, is still on his rookie contract for one more year. In 2020, Mahomes will turn 25 and is scheduled to make just $735,000. But the Chiefs almost certainly will give him a long-term extension this offseason, and he could get a bump in pay to about $35 million a year. Is he worth it? “His mechanics make me shake my head sometimes. He throws across his body and back against the field a lot. But it works for him. He does things no one else can,” one of our panelists said. And it’s probably going to stay that way for at least the next decade.
Pat Yasinskas has covered the NFL since 1993. He has worked for The Tampa Tribune, The Charlotte Observer and ESPN.com and writes for numerous national magazines and websites. He also has served as a voter for the Pro Football Hall of Fame.
