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Andrew McGarry

From Smokin' Romans to Anamoe and Deauville Legend, the leading chances for the Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup

It's Spring Racing Carnival time and during the next 18 days, three of Australia's biggest and most famous races will be run and won.

The two Cups and a Plate — the Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup — draw some of the best racehorses in Australia, and in recent years an increasing number of challengers from overseas.

So, who could be taking home some of Australia's most coveted silverware? Here are some names to watch out for.

Caulfield Cup — Saturday, October 15

Smokin' Romans

Until this year, Smokin' Romans was a horse making solid but not spectacular progress in metropolitan and regional races in Victoria, with his biggest result a second place in last year's Bendigo Cup.

Now, after a brilliant month of racing, the Ciaron Maher and David Eustace-trained galloper finds himself the favourite for the Caulfield Cup (2,400m) and a potential $3 million payday. 

A second place finish at Moonee Valley over 2,040m was a starting point, but the breakthrough came in mid-September with a win in the Group 3 Naturalism Stakes at Caulfield (2,000m).

Next up was the Turnbull Stakes at Flemington (2,000m) — which has provided the winner of the last two runnings of the Caulfield Cup.

Given a brilliant ride by jockey Ethan Brown, Smokin' Romans hit the front with 300m to go, and despite various challengers not only held the lead but extended to win by 1.5 lengths in an impressive display.

Benaud

For cricket lovers and those who like omens, the John O'Shea-trained Benaud is a decent shot at taking out this year's Caulfield Cup.

O'Shea has previously said that next year is likely to be Benaud's chance for a shot at the Melbourne Cup, and the original plan was to run in the Metropolitan Handicap (2,400m) at Randwick before going for a spell in the paddock.

However the four-year-old gelding was ruled out days before the race when O'Shea told stewards Benaud had been mistakenly given medication containing a prohibited substance and was unable to compete.

Now the horse is right in contention for the Caulfield Cup, after his close-up sixth in the Might and Power Stakes. But it is his run in this year's ATC Derby (2,400m) where he came from near the tail at the 400m to race home for a narrow second on a heavy track that suggests he could be the one.

Nonconformist 

This time last year, Nonconformist was in the Caulfield Cup, running a decent race but getting blown away like the rest of the field by the superstar horse Incentivise.

Twelve months on, the now six-year-old Nonconformist is back for another crack at the race.

All up, the Grahame Begg-trained gelding has raced 14 times at Caulfield for three wins, so there will be no fears with the track — although he has not been tested on heavy going if the surface stays that wet.

Nonconformist couldn't crack a top-three finish in the Might and Power Stakes last weekend, but although he came seventh, he closed quickly to be less than three lengths off the winner in a solid set-up for the Caulfield Cup. 

Cox Plate — Saturday, October 22

Anamoe

The W.S. Cox Plate (2,040m) is known as the weight-for-age championship of Australasia, and has seen some great champion horses triumph — from Phar Lap, Tobin Bronze and Kingston Town to Might and Power, Sunline and four-time winner Winx.

Unlike the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups, which are handicap races, the Cox Plate is run under weight-for-age rules, where horses carry weight literally according to their age and sex as opposed to an assessment of form.

Last year the title went to Ireland, as the Joseph O'Brien-trained State of Rest survived a protest to win just ahead of Anamoe and Verry Elleegant.

The James Cummings-trained runner-up is now four-years-old and has been aimed at the race again in 2022, where he will carry 57.5 kg.

He is in prime form for the race, having won the Group 1 Winx Stakes and George Main Stakes at Randwick over 1,600m.

In its latest run in the Might and Power Stakes (2,000m) at Caulfield, Anamoe seemed to struggle near the top of the straight.

Then jockey James McDonald shifted him to the centre of the track where he wore down I'm Thunderstruck, Zaaki and Alligator Blood to win.

I'm Thunderstruck

Anamoe may be taking the headlines for the Cox Plate, but that doesn't mean the favourite is unbeatable at the Valley.

In his current spell, the Mick Price and Michael Kent-trained I'm Thunderstruck has been consistently around the mark, not greater than three lengths away in any of the bay gelding's four runs.

In two of those races, he has been a head (0.2 lengths) or a half-head (0.1 lengths) shy of the winner.

As in the Cox Plate, I'm Thunderstruck as a five-year-old carried 59kg in the Might and Power Stakes. He might have beaten Anamoe if the race had lasted another 50-100m. 

Could he reverse the placings at Moonee Valley? Absolutely.

Zaaki

The plus side of weight-for-age in the Cox Plate is that once you are five years old or above, it doesn't matter if you are five or 10 — you still carry the same 59kg for horses and geldings or 57kg for mares.

So while Zaaki is the elder statesman of the Cox Plate field at eight years old, he will carry the same as he did for the Might and Power Stakes, where he finished less than half a length back from Anamoe.

Zaaki has had three starts on heavy ground for two wins and a second, while on soft ground he has two wins, a second and a third from seven starts — a wet track is not going to bother him.

If he can find the inside rail at Moonee Valley and save ground, trainer Annabel Neasham might well end up with her first win in one of the Cups and a Plate.   

Melbourne Cup — Tuesday, November 1

Deauville Legend

It seems like every year these days the favourite for the Melbourne Cup is an overseas horse who has not run in Australia prior to having a crack at the great race.

This may well change between now and the first Tuesday in November, but for now the top pick is English stayer Deauville Legend, trained by James Ferguson.

Sired by equine great Sea The Stars — who won a string of top races including the Epsom Derby and the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe — Deauville Legend is making a tidy name of his own.

He won his maiden in April, followed by the Group 3 Bahrain Trophy Stakes in July and then an impressive victory in the Group 2 Great Voltigeur Stakes at York (2385m) eight weeks ago.

What he hasn't done is won at Group 1 level, or over the Cup distance of 3,200m. 

Alegron

Aside from Deauville Legend, the main international raiders are Germany's Loft, Without A Fight from England and perhaps the David Simcock-trained Rodrigo Diaz if he can win the Geelong Cup and make the field.

But as always when considering the Melbourne Cup, you have to look at the global racing giant Godolphin.

After nearly three decades of trying, they broke through with Cross Counter winning the Cup in 2018. This year, their representative in the race that stops the nation will be Alegron, trained by James Cummings.

Cummings, a grandson of legendary 'Cups King' Bart Cummings, is based at Godolphin's Crown Lodge near Warwick Farm in Sydney.

Given the wet spring ahead of the big races, it's handy that Alegron showed it could handle a soft 7 winning the Group 3 Kingston Town Stakes at Randwick, and also managed a place on a heavy 9 surface in the Group 1 ATC Derby at the same track back in April.

The Caulfield Cup and Melbourne Cup are both targets for Alegron, and he has won at distances up to 2,800m. Can he provide a second Melbourne Cup win for Godolphin? Time will tell.

Duais

From a local perspective, big name trainers have chosen to look to Europe and elsewhere to bring elite horses to Australia in their challenge for the Melbourne Cup in recent times.

Six of the last 12 winners of the Cup have been overseas-trained horses, but nine of the last 12 have been overseas-bred — 11 if you don't put New Zealand in with Australia.

As we speak, there are five Australian-bred horses in the top 24 of the order of entry for the Melbourne Cup, including the previously mentioned Alegron, Lunar Flare, Montefilia and Persan.

There are another five from New Zealand. If the race field was decided today, less than a quarter of the field would have been bred in this country.

One of the chances of the home brigade is Duais, trained by Edward Cummings — another grandson of Bart Cummings — at Myrtle House stables at Hawkesbury.

Duais is a five-year-old bay mare, who had back-to-back Group 1 wins in March, taking out the Australian Cup at Flemington (2,000m) before showing brilliant closing speed to rout rivals in the Tancred Stakes (2,400m) at Newcastle.

She had a four-month break after that race and has not looked at her best since returning. But the Caulfield Cup should provide a perfect outing to set up Duais for the first Tuesday in November. 

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