Good morning. Later today, officials from the UK will join talks ahead of a conference next month that could end with participants recognising the state of Palestine. The discussions come at the end of a week in which the UK and its allies in Europe have been more critical of Israel’s conduct in Gaza than ever before in the conflict - with new sanctions, measures on trade, and a much harder rhetorical line from foreign secretary David Lammy all part of a coordinated push.
But while all that marks a significant break from the past treatment of Israel, everything announced so far appears to be largely symbolic in nature. And with Benjamin Netanyahu’s two-month blockade barely relieved by a trickle of aid allowed in earlier this week, and urgent warnings that thousands of Palestinian babies could die as a result, many say that the time for a cautiously calibrated diplomatic response is long past.
Meanwhile, Israel is expanding its ground offensive, and senior Israeli politicians are promising to “level” and “cleanse” Gaza. At least 50 more people were killed by Israeli strikes yesterday, bringing the total in the last two months to more than 3,600 – and the war’s overall toll to almost 54,000.
So what else could the UK and its partners do - and will they ever be willing to do it? For today’s newsletter, I spoke to Patrick Wintour, the Guardian’s diplomatic correspondent, about the contours of the British and European response, and its limits. Here are the headlines.
Five big stories
Public sector pay | Ministers are bracing themselves for a potential wave of NHS strikes in England after doctors denounced pay rises of up to 5.4% this year as “derisory” and threatened to take action in protest.
UK politics | The UK has signed an agreement to cede sovereignty over the Chagos Islands to Mauritius after an 11th-hour legal challenge failed. The cost of leasing Diego Garcia, revealed for the first time on Thursday, is £101m a year, with the eventual cost of the deal to be £3.4bn.
US news | The US justice department has charged the lone suspect in a brazen attack that killed two young Israeli embassy staff members outside the Jewish museum in downtown Washington DC with murder. Elias Rodriguez, 31, is alleged to have told police: “I did it for Gaza.”
UK news | The Northern Irish rap trio Kneecap have claimed a campaign is being mounted to prevent their performance at Glastonbury this summer, at a surprise gig staged a day after one of its members was charged with a terror offence for allegedly displaying a flag in support of Hezbollah.
Environment | The Environment Agency has allowed a firm to dump three tonnes of uranium into one of England’s most protected sites over the past nine years, it can be revealed, with experts sounding alarm over the potential environmental impact of these discharges.
In depth: ‘It’s about the accumulation of images of emaciated children’
David Lammy’s intervention in the House of Commons this week was strongly worded, and delivered in a tone that suggested a marked shift in the UK’s approach to Israel – at least in terms of rhetoric. As one British diplomat told Patrick earlier this week: “The language was carefully chosen and it was quite simply unprecedented. It marks a turning point.”
Meanwhile, the EU initiated a review of its trade relationship with Israel; and a joint statement by the UK, France and Canada condemned Israel’s “wholly disproportionate” and “egregious” escalation, threatening to step up “concrete actions” in response.
But to many observers, the practical measures accompanying those interventions in the meantime did not have the corresponding force. And as Clémence Lagouardat, Oxfam’s response lead in Gaza, told Nimo earlier this week, Israel’s decision to allow a small number of aid trucks in – about 90 since Monday, against an estimated daily requirement of 600 trucks to begin to tackle the crisis – “will not solve the situation that we are facing on the ground”.
The question now is whether the UK and its allies will take the “concrete actions” it has threatened – and whether they will be enough to exert any serious pressure on Benjamin Netanyahu’s government.
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What prompted the UK’s shift in position?
“On one level, it’s quite simple,” Patrick said. “It’s about the humanitarian issue and the accumulation of images of emaciated children, the sense that Netanyahu is not willing to do a deal to release the remaining hostages [with 57 still in Gaza, 34 of whom are feared to be dead] if it means a permanent ceasefire, and a growing mood among Labour MPs that this isn’t tolerable.” (For a sense of the view from the backbenches, listen to John Harris’ Politics Weekly interview with Melanie Ward, a Labour MP and former chief executive at Medical Aid for Palestinians.)
In his analysis piece published on Wednesday, Patrick sets out the impact of a meeting between Lammy and his advisors and Gideon Sa’ar, the Israeli foreign minister, last month. “They laid down the law to him, in particular about relaxing the blockade,” Patrick said. “But nothing changed. Having that direct and in person conversation was a big moment.”
The other important factor has been the presence of Tom Fletcher, who was a foreign policy advisor to Blair, Brown, and Cameron, as the UN’s humanitarian chief. “He has been pressing very hard with London that more needs to be done, and he is listened to in the foreign office,” Patrick said. That pressure came as the EU initiated its review of trade, and produced a sense that the two interventions might be coordinated to have more impact.
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How much impact is all this likely to have?
Since coming to power, Keir Starmer’s government has gone further than Rishi Sunak’s did. Steps have included the suspension of some arms export licences – about 30 out of 350 in total – the resumption of funding for the now banned UN human rights agency Unrwa, and the decision to drop the previous government’s opposition to an International Criminal Court arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu.
But those steps have had a limited effect on the facts on the ground, and despite Lammy’s fiery rhetoric, that is unlikely to change on the basis of this week. “Nothing they announced has any real practical impact,” Patrick said. “Negotiations over the future expansion of an existing free trade deal – that has not been a focus anyway, with Israel in the middle of a war.”
The sanctions announced against a handful of Israeli settlers and entities in the West Bank were similarly “performative” and unlikely to have any impact on Netanyahu’s stance, he added.
To stop the EU’s trade review turning into concrete action, meanwhile, “would only take one country to veto it, and Germany or Hungary might do so,” Patrick said. “So it’s difficult.”
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What influence does the US have over UK policy?
One perennial factor in British foreign policy is a reluctance to diverge from Washington’s position, and that tendency remains even with Donald Trump in charge. The more robust tone of this week may in part be because even he has acknowledged that “a lot of people are starving”.
“They feel they have the green light, or at least the amber light, about the humanitarian aid issue,” Patrick said. But there is still a significant conflict over proposals to replace Unrwa with an organisation that would distribute aid through US private security contractors at “hubs”, mostly in the south of Gaza – a step that many fear would precede an attempt to permanently remove Palestinians from the rest of the territory.
“One person I spoke to described it as a ‘prelude to expulsion’,” Patrick said. “It’s essentially kettling civilians in one part of Gaza. It is not in tune with any humanitarian principle.” And whatever happens on aid, the US has not shown any willingness to take concrete actions that would challenge the fundamental issue of Israel’s military onslaught against Palestinian civilians.
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Could they go further?
If leaders in the UK and Europe were minded to, there are many steps that they could take that might have a more substantial effect. “What would be more expansive is some kind of immediate trade embargo, rather than moves to slow the expansion of future trade,” Patrick said.
Many critics also want the UK to enact a comprehensive arms embargo – in the fourth quarter of last year alone, the UK approved licences for £128m worth of military equipment – and to use sanctions, including travel bans and asset freezes, against much more senior members of the Israeli government, including Benjamin Netanyahu himself.
Yesterday, the Financial Times reported (£) that sanctions against far-right Israeli ministers Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir are being actively considered. “But they don’t have a lot of assets in the UK, so it’s pretty performative stuff,” Patrick said. “And it raises the question, given that Netanyahu has endorsed much of what they’ve said, of why you would sanction them and not him.”
The government could also recognise the state of Palestine. But some British diplomats are said to feel that step could be more usefully deployed as a lever in discussions over a future peace settlement, rather than as a symbolic move when the war is raging with no imminent end in sight.
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What about the word ‘genocide’?
In his House of Commons statement, Lammy quoted Smotrich, noting that he “even spoke of Israeli forces cleansing Gaza, destroying what’s left of residents, Palestinians being relocated, he said, to third countries.” “We must call this what it is,” he said. In response, some MPs shouted: “Genocide”.
Despite his insistence on linguistic clarity, that is not a position Lammy is willing to take: he confined himself to saying that “it is extremism, it is dangerous, it is repellent, it is monstrous”.
“The formal foreign office position is that it’s for international courts to declare a genocide, not governments,” Patrick said. But a ruling from the international court of justice, which is currently hearing a case on the question, could take years.
Tom Fletcher of the UN has referred to the “threat of genocide”, while independent groups like Amnesty International, the European Center for Constitutional and Human Rights, and Human Rights Watch have said that a genocide is already underway. Even if civilians start to be expelled from Gaza en masse while the bombing continues, the government still “might find a form of words like ‘ethnic cleansing’,” Patrick said.
In the end, the question of terminology may matter less than whether the UK and Europe are ready to take more robust action. But the word has significant weight. The UN’s special rapporteur, Francesca Albanese, said last year: “If you go to a doctor because you have cancer and you are diagnosed with fever, you have a big problem – it’s the same with the people who are being genocided.”
What else we’ve been reading
What would a US-backed peace plan actually look like for Ukraine? This stunning piece of visual journalism by Seán Clarke and Antonio Voce maps out the potential deal’s devastating human toll. Aamna
Almost inevitably, Elon Musk has founded a city in Texas called Starbase. Oliver Laughland visited - and found that long-term locals might quite like the newcomers to succeed in their dream of moving to Mars. Archie
Gary Lineker’s transformation from elite footballer to elite presenter is rare. But as Adrian Chiles fondly remembers, the beloved pundit was once hopeless at his new career, before becoming the best. Aamna
The lower rungs of Ranked! sometimes test the writer’s patience. Not a problem for Alexis Petridis on Teenage Fanclub, who finds a “typically stunning tune” at No 20, works on up to an “absolutely preposterous abundance of hooks”, and sent me straight to Spotify. Archie
This important investigation shows how the UK’s demand for fish has fed a booming global trade in which millions of small fish are caught to feed bigger farmed fish abroad, draining Senegal’s waters of a food source the country’s population relies on. Aamna
Sport
Cricket | Under-pressure No 3 Ollie Pope hit his eighth Test century as England scored a massive 498 for three on the first day of the one-off Test at Trent Bridge against Zimbabwe.
Tennis | Jack Draper will have to navigate a challenging draw at the French Open to consolidate his breakthrough clay-court season with a deep run at Roland Garros, where he is still seeking his first win. Emma Raducanu, meanwhile, will attempt to consolidate her positive form on clay when she faces the world No 42, Xinyu Wang, of China.
Football | Ruben Amorim has a summer transfer budget of a little less than £100m and retains Manchester United’s firm backing despite Wednesday’s Europa League final defeat by Tottenham.
The front pages
“Fears of fresh NHS strikes after doctors decry ‘derisory’ pay rises,” is the splash on the Guardian today. Several other papers focus on the Chagos Islands' deal. “Starmer’s Chagos Islands cave-in,” says the Metro, while the Times runs with: “Starmer hands over Chagos to Mauritius,” and the Telegraph: “£30bn cost of Chagos surrender.”
Elsewhere, it’s the fallout from the independent sentencing review’s conclusions yesterday. “Early release for killers an ‘insult to all victims,’” is the lead story over at the Express, and also the Daily Mail, which writes: “Labour to release rapists & killers earlier.”
“US lawmakers pass Trump’s showpiece tax bill by one vote,” says the FT, while the lead story on the i is: “Ex-MI6 chief: Miliband’s net zero plan is UK national security threat.”
Something for the weekend
Our critics’ roundup of the best things to watch, read, play and listen to right now
TV
Sirens | ★★★★★
An “utterly addictive” and “preposterously fun” show, Sirens has been likened to The White Lotus with a touch of Ryan Murphy-style camp. What’s not to love? Not much, especially with Julianne Moore, House of the Dragon’s Milly Alcock, and White Lotus alum Meghann Fahy shining in their lead roles: as a sinister socialite (Moore, above) and two sisters whose lives collide after their father is diagnosed with dementia. This tightly packed five-part series explores sisterhood, class, trauma, and power through a plot that’s as absurd as it is brilliant. Lucy Mangan
Film
The Phoenician Scheme | ★★★☆☆
Enjoyable and executed with director Wes Anderson’s usual tremendous dispatch, his latest film is somehow less visually detailed and inspired than some of his earlier work; there is less screwball sympathy for the characters, and it is disconcerting to see actors of the calibre of Tom Hanks, Willem Dafoe and Scarlett Johansson phoning in tiny, deadpan, almost immobile cameos. But there is a likeable lead turn from Mia Threapleton and an eerie visual and aural echo of her mother by Kate Winslet. It is always entertaining, and delivered with the usual conviction and force but with less of the romantic extravagance than we’ve seen before, less of the childlike loneliness that has been detectable in his greatest movies. Peter Bradshaw
Music
Stereolab: Instant Holograms on Metal Film | ★★★★☆
Stereolab’s first studio album in 15 years, Instant Holograms on Metal Film, picks up exactly where they left off; with vintage synths, motorik grooves, and Marxist-tinged lyrics. It’s unmistakably their sound, familiar to anyone who’s followed them since the 90s, when they carved out a distinct, retro-futurist aesthetic. Longtime fans will therefore be pleased to hear Stereolab return to doing what they do best. While past critiques have called them emotionally distant, there’s a real warmth and brightness to the melodies here. Strangely, despite its throwback feel, the album feels more current than ever. Alexis Petridis
Today in Focus
The Olympics’ dirtiest race ever?
British athlete Lisa Dobriskey speaks to Helen Pidd about her experience in the 2012 1500m final, which, as Esther Addley reports, has become known as the dirtiest race in history.
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
Caroline Butterwick is partially sighted so birding felt out of reach, until she went on a trip to Wildfowl and Wetlands Trust (WWT) Slimbridge centre in Gloucestershire. Guided walks made the experience an immersive one and she found clarity in the sounds around her as experts pointed out the distinct calls of local birds.
Caroline learned to identify the different bird song - from the mechanical notes of a reed warbler to the familiar coo of a woodpigeon - and was able to draw meaningful connections between sound and memory. The stay in the local Shepherd’s hut rounded out her journey and she came away with a sweet reminder of the sensory joys of the outdoors.
Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until Monday.
