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Radio France Internationale
Radio France Internationale
National

French presidential hopefuls rethink rhetoric as Russian realpolitik takes hold

Flags mounted on official diplomatic cars are seen in Berlin on June 11, 2018, during a Normandy Format meeting of the foreign ministers of France, Germany, Ukraine, and Russia on the conflict in eastern Ukraine. © AFP

When Russia invaded Ukraine in February, the internationally condemned act of aggression turned the political platforms of France's presidential candidates on their respective heads. The invasion that triggered Europe's largest refugee crisis since World War II saw parochial issues usurped by a conflict that has torn open France's Cold War rivalries.

When France's political parties mobilised ahead of the 2022 presidential and legislative elections at the end of 2021, French foreign policy was relegated to a sub-category, as the main issues clear and present on the hustings were purchasing power, migration control and national security.

Still reeling from the 2015 terrorist attacks and Brexit, foreign policy was mainly focused on counter-terrorism operations in the Sahel, fishing rights with the British and how to put on a "brave face" with the US Biden administration after being undercut by AUKUS.

That all changed on the morning of 24 February when, after months of shuttle diplomacy and conjecture over the intentions of Russian president Vladimir Putin, they were finally exposed and the orders were given from the Kremlin to mobilise hundreds of thousands of Russian troops to invade Ukraine.

Within 24 hours, France's political parties had to refocus their message in the face of an invasion of a non-EU, non-NATO democratic European state by an authoritarian president who provides the continent with up to 50 percent of its energy supplies.

So where do France's 12 presidential candidates stand on the Russia-Ukraine war?

The Left Wing

For the far-left Lutte Ouvrière (Workers' Struggle) candidate Nathalie Arthaud, France should stick to non-alignment and not supply arms to Ukraine. Coming from a militant communist background, she maintains she is "absolutely against economic sanctions" against Russia, because the population will suffer the most.

She is also opposed to sending arms to Ukraine, underlining that responsibility for the Ukraine war is shared: "NATO has surrounded Russia," she says.

While she opposes the war and maintains that Putin's attack on Ukraine is "criminal", the policy of the great Western powers is also partly to blame for that.

The anti-capitalist candidate Philippe Poutou also blames the expansionist policies of NATO and has called for the complete cancellation of Ukraine's debt.

For Poutou, "the policies of great Western powers show how ineffective and dangerous the expansion of NATO and the sanctions against Russia are".

He advocates for the withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine, as well as "the immediate halt of the expansion of NATO".

He also proposes to cancel Ukraine's debt and recalls the right of people to self-determination.

He cataclysmically reminds the electorate: "There can be no military solution to the Ukrainian conflict, with the risk of resorting to nuclear [weapons] and setting the region ablaze."

Also hailing from the far left, and the poll-topper for the socialist vote, France Unbowed leader, Jean-Luc Mélenchon has called for existing sanctions against Russia not to be applied, yet proposes Ukraine's neutrality is key to ending the war.

Indeed, he stresses the war will weigh on the purchasing power of the French. However, curiously, Mélenchon has thrown his arms into the air, saying the war against the Russians on the ground "is lost" in advance.

The poster-boy for France's official Communist Party, Fabien Roussel, says he is committed to not bringing Ukraine into NATO.

France and the EU must maintain a dialogue with the Ukrainian and Russian presidents to force Russia to withdraw its troops, he suggests.

He believes that this could include a commitment not to bring Ukraine into NATO, which would meet Vladimir Putin's demands.

Whether it matters to the French electorate that this sets a highly questionable precedent remains to be seen.

The centrists

For Green contender Yannick Jadot, the early 20th Century rhetoric moves into a more contemporary, almost reactionary, mode.

The environmentalist MEP has called to send arms to Ukraine and isolate Russia both financially and diplomatically.

Jadot proposes to "support Ukraine in its demands for defensive weapons", appealing for massive sanctions against Russia, targeting Russian oligarchs and fully isolating the country.

A difficult ask when Russia's Gasprom Bank is the tail wagging the energy dog... and in roubles.

When it comes to Socialist Party candidate Anne Hidalgo, she proposes a more moderate "send military equipment to Ukraine" stance, not wanting to alienate any possible support for any potential outcome.

She calls for "firm and immediate" economic sanctions, such as blocking Russian propaganda organisations, seizing the assets of those close to the Kremlin or suspending access to international financial transfer systems.

Without wanting to say Hidalgo is just "band-wagoneering", has that not already been done?

For the incumbent himself – lauded for keeping diplomatic ties open with Putin despite pressure from Washington – Emmanuel Macron wants to continue to sanction Russia, but has said that as Commander-in-Chief, France has and will continue to deliver arms to Kiev.

Onto the Right

Les Républicains candidate Valérie Pécresse is toeing the "Western" line by calling for targeted sanctions against Putin's "Yes Men".

She says it's necessary to convene the European Council to take "truly dissuasive and targeted sanctions against Putin's entourage" and against Russian financial interests.

As a straight-down-the-line conservative candidate, she's speaking the language of her electorate.

If you want to hurt anyone, hit their pockets first. But again, has this not already been done?

Jean Lassalle, the charming, provincial outsider with an insular platform, has called for "firm measures against Russian power" and for the UN to act quickly for an immediate ceasefire and restoring of peace. He has also denounced the "tutelage of the European continent by the United States and NATO".

Affable as the candidate may be, one doubts the Kremlin will tremble.

Then the "don't-exactly-know-how-right-wing-I-am" candidate Nicolas Dupont-Aignan refers to a French "non-alignment role" in the whole affair and declares Ukraine should become a neutral state.

The candidate of Debout la France wants France to become a (non-aligned) "mediator between Russia and NATO", urging Ukraine to cede autonomy to the eastern Donbass region.

Again, this sets a highly debatable precedent for a region on the border with Russia, that has been in a so-called frozen conflict since 2014 and a key bullet point on Putin's list of excuses to invade.

Previous Putin apologists

When it comes to far-right stalwart Marine Le Pen, the prime directive is that French troops will not get involved.

Known for being "good friends" with Vladimir Putin until very recently, the National Rally leader believes that a diplomatic solution to the conflict should be found through the auspices of the United Nations.

Again, purchasing power comes into the equation when shutting down Russia's oil and gas supplies, which she opposes.

Bottom line? "Ukraine does not join NATO", says Le Pen.

As the political spectrum ends on the far, far right, Eric Zemmour has taken a palpable hit to his popularity since the 24 February invasion.

A long-time admirer of Putin's hegemony over the largest country in the world, Zemmour has pledged that if he takes office, Ukraine will never join NATO.

Until the war was launched, Zemmour called into question the validity of Ukraine's borders with Russia, essentially justifying Putin's ambitions to play the "Sudetenland card".

Since the war began, Zemmour has "unreservedly condemned the military intervention", which he describes as "unjustifiable".

He, however, still calls for a treaty to ensure that Ukraine "never" joins the North Atlantic Alliance.

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