The United Nations General Assembly opens this week, with Palestinian statehood set to dominate the agenda. France, alongside Saudi Arabia, will lead discussions in the most significant diplomatic push in years to breathe life back into a two-state solution.
The stage was set on 12 September when the UN General Assembly adopted the so-called New York Declaration, a text designed to give fresh impetus to the peace process – with one crucial caveat: the exclusion of Hamas.
With 142 votes in favour and 10 against – including Israel and the United States – plus 12 abstentions, the resolution demands Hamas lays down its arms.
French foreign minister Jean-Noël Barrot hailed the adoption as the “definitive international isolation of Hamas” – a moment he argued would give political cover to countries preparing to recognise the Palestinian state at the 2025 General Assembly.
President Emmanuel Macron has already pledged that France will make that recognition official on 22 September.
UN gathers to advance two-state solution to Israel-Palestine conflict
France's 'crucial role'
On Sunday, Britain, Australia, Canada and Portugal recognised a Palestinian state in a coordinated, historic shift in decades of Western foreign policy, triggering swift anger from Israel.
Belgium and Canada are preparing similar announcements this Monday, but according to Richard Gowan, director of UN and multilateral diplomacy at the International Crisis Group, Paris's stance on Palestine has been a game-changer.
“France has played a really crucial role bringing a group of countries together to recognise Palestine at the same time,” he told RFI.
“If President Macron had not announced France’s intention back in July, no one else would have done so. France really has been the orchestrator of this process.”
However, he also notes that France has drawn strength from the United Kingdom's stance.
"Having both Britain and France – two veto powers from the Security Council – working in parallel reassures other countries that they can take the step. There’s safety in numbers. States that felt nervous about recognising Palestine alone due to likely blowback from the US feel more confident doing it in a coordinated fashion."
Why is France recognising Palestinian statehood and will it change anything?
What’s on the table
The New York Declaration calls explicitly for an end to the war in Gaza, nearly two years on from the 7 October, 2023 attacks on Israel by Hamas that triggered it.
It also calls for a “just, peaceful and durable settlement” based on two states, with Israel and Palestine living side by side.
Crucially, the text envisages a handover of authority in Gaza from Hamas to the Palestinian Authority, supported by the international community.
The declaration aims to guarantee a sovereign, independent State of Palestine, with credible institutions and security guarantees both for Palestinians and for Israel.
Looking ahead to a possible ceasefire, the resolution floats the deployment of a temporary international stabilisation mission under a UN Security Council mandate. Such a force would be tasked with protecting civilians, helping to build up Palestinian state structures and providing security assurances on both sides.
Gowan, however, is sceptical over how realistic such proposals are.
"The idea of a stabilisation force in Gaza only makes sense if there is a ceasefire. Ceasefire has to come first. There is absolutely no way the Security Council would authorise a military intervention without a really credible ceasefire beforehand," he said.
He added that while Arab states may be pressed to provide troops,"if I were an Egyptian or Saudi general, I would be nervous about the risks involved in going into Gaza".
"The French have done quite a good job in persuading the Arab group of states to finally condemn Hamas, and the General Assembly endorsed the demand that Hamas should leave power in Gaza this month," Gowan said, adding that this was a deliberate move.
By condemning Hamas directly, the text allows governments to argue that recognising Palestine does not equate to condoning Hamas but rather signals support for an internationally backed state under the Palestinian Authority.
France rejects Netanyahu’s antisemitism claim over recognition of Palestine
Israel pushes back
Israel has reacted with fury, with its Foreign Ministry spokesman Oren Marmorstein calling the General Assembly’s decision "shameful" and accusing the UN of being a "political circus detached from reality".
Israel argues that the resolution ignores Hamas’s refusal to disarm and to release Israeli hostages, and claims it only encourages further violence. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared on 11 September: "There will be no Palestinian state"
According to Gowan, this rejection was inevitable. "No one expected Israel to welcome these recognitions," he said.
"The original French plan had actually been to do some diplomatic magic and have Saudi Arabia offering formal recognition of Israel alongside the recognition of Palestine. But that idea has fallen by the wayside, because there’s no way the Saudis can politically recognise Israel while the war in Gaza continues."
The bigger risk however, he warns, is escalation.
Netanyahu is expected to speak later in the UNGA week. "He could announce more settlements in the West Bank, or he could really escalate and announce that Israel will formally annex parts of the West Bank or Gaza," Gowan said.
"Diplomats and UN officials have been very nervous about an Israeli annexation declaration for much of the last year."
France condemns Israel’s west bank settlement plan as serious breach of international law
Palestinian expectations
Palestinian leaders have hailed the vote as a historic step. Hussein al-Sheikh, vice-president of the Palestinian Authority, called it “an important stage towards ending the occupation” and realising a Palestinian state on the 1967 borders, with East Jerusalem as its capital.
But Gowan cautions against assuming Hamas can simply be written out of the equation.
"The idea of simply obliterating Hamas is not realistic," he told RFI. "The declaration is more about offering those Palestinians who want to see a peaceful pathway to statehood some encouragement – a political horizon. But the details of what post-war Gaza will look like and how it will be ruled still need a lot of thought."
Macron warns on Israeli TV that Gaza war is 'destroying Israel’s credibility'
Roughly three-quarters of UN member states already recognise Palestine. What makes this September session different is the role of Western powers. "Leaders from the Global South will look at this event and say: what took you so long?" said Gowan.
"France and other countries are just catching up with the views of the global majority. But it is important that some really significant Western powers and US allies are finally stepping up."
Recognition at the UN will not make Palestine a full member state – Washington’s veto at the Security Council rules that out – but, Gowan said: "This is really an example of the UN being a useful platform for states to send strong signals about their views."
He concludes that: "Even states that on many issues desperately want to avoid offending the US feel that the situation in Gaza has now gone so far that they have to take at least symbolic action."
