Progress in cutting greenhouse gas emissions in France is expected to slow again in 2025, according to a government-commissioned forecast published on Friday, putting the country's climate goals further out of reach.
The estimated reduction of less than one percent extends a slowdown seen in recent years, said Citepa – a non-profit organisation tasked by France's ecology ministry with tallying the country's greenhouse gas inventory.
It comes just a day after France’s top climate advisory body warned that recent setbacks and a slowdown in decarbonisation efforts risk undermining the country’s environmental goals.
France, a major economy seen as a leader in transitioning to a low-carbon future, slashed its output of planet-heating emissions by 6.8 percent in 2023.
But the rate of decline slowed sharply to 1.8 percent in 2024 and is tipped to slip even further in 2025 to just 0.8 percent, said Citepa's latest progress report.
"This slight decrease in greenhouse gas emissions would confirm the slowdown in momentum observed in recent years," it said.
France's emissions for the first quarter of 2025 actually rose slightly, partly due to higher gas and electricity use for heating school and residential buildings, the report found.
The use of carbon-free nuclear power, France's main source of energy, remains at a historically high level, Cipet said. Fossil fuel use, already low, is likely to stabilise, limiting further gains.
France falling short of climate targets as emissions dip slows
European trend
France aims to cut emissions by at least 40 percent by 2030 compared to 1990 levels, although a plan in develoment would raise this goal to 50 percent.
To achieve that, emissions need to be cut by around five percent each year between 2022 and 2030 – well above the current pace.
France's trend mirrors broader struggles across Europe, with Germany and Britain also struggling to sustain the momentum after posting impressive cuts in recent years.
The US managed just a 0.2 percent cut in 2024.
The slowdown comes amid global pressure for stronger climate commitments in line with international efforts to keep global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels.
On Wednesday, the EU announced a long-delayed goal of cutting emissions by 90 percent by 2040 compared to 1990 levels, but with contested new flexibilities built in.
EU emissions fell by 8.3 percent in 2023 compared to 2022, and are now 37 percent below 1990 levels.
(with newswires)
