One man’s loss is another man’s gain, and with Cabo Verde playing Spain to a draw, France is now the prediction market favorite to win the World Cup. Spain dropped nearly 3% across all prediction markets following their 0-0 draw on Monday.
Spain had a massive 91% chance to beat Cabo Verde outright and a 52% chance to win by more than 2.5 goals, with just a 7% chance of a draw.
World Cup Winner - Polymarket
- France 17.5%
- Spain 14%
- Portugal 10.8%
- England 10.6%
- Argentina 9.7%
World Cup Winner - Kalshi
- France 17.8%
- Spain 14.7%
- Portugal 11.6%
- England 10.3%
- Argentina 8.5%
As the new favorite without even playing a match, Kalshi’s World Cup prediction market pays out $43.08 if France wins at a $10 risk. It’s a slightly higher payout of $45.73 on Polymarket’s World Cup selection on the same $10 risk.
Where things sit now
Before Spain’s opening match draw, they were tied with France at around 17% before the World Cup started. Following the draw, 2.3% was taken from them on Kalshi and exactly 3% on Polymarket.
Prediction markets give France a 66% chance to top Group I ahead of Norway, Senegal, and Iraq. It will open Group I play on Tuesday against Senegal as a 67% favorite.
Spain’s chances to win Group H plunged 12% from 85% to 73% over Uruguay, Cabo Verde, and Saudi Arabia. The group is now a four-way tie with one point each, following Saudi Arabia and Uruguay also drawing.
France vs. Senegal market
- France 67%
- Senegal 14%
- Draw 22%
France is hot right now, coming into this one at 8-1-1 over its last 10, outscoring their opponents 25-9. Senegal has cooled off at the worst time, managing just 2-1-2 in its last five matches with a 7-7 goal mark across those games.
Don’t forget 2010
Yes, Spain suffered a draw in its opening match, but they have faced adversity before. In 2010, it lost its opening group play match 0-1 to Switzerland before going on to win every game since and winning the World Cup.
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