Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football, where a quarterback named Lunch Winfield came off the bench to produce a buffet of touchdowns (three running, two passing) for Louisiana in a 54–51 overtime win over Marshall. First Quarter: Here He Comes Again, Somehow. Second Quarter: Are We Really Doing This Again?
Third Quarter: The Looming Notre Dame Argument
Notre Dame (21) pushed itself to the College Football Playoff brink by starting the season 0–2. Since then, the Fighting Irish have beaten two power-conference opponents by a combined 69 points, which is nice, but those two teams (Purdue and Arkansas) are also winless against fellow P4 teams. The question that will hover over Notre Dame’s season is whether it can run the table and deliver enough (or any) quality wins.
The Irish hung 56 on both the Boilermakers and the Razorbacks, the most points they’ve scored in back-to-back games since racking up 60 on Pittsburgh and 62 on Rutgers in 1996 (the final two wins at the school for Lou Holtz). If they go 10–2 and continue to obliterate opponents that aren’t very good, will it sway the selection committee?
That’s iffy. Strength of schedule is expected to be more heavily weighed than ever, and while Notre Dame has two very good losses so far (by a total of four points to undefeated Miami and Texas A&M), quality wins matter more. And opportunities for those could be disappearing quickly.
The combined record of Notre Dame’s remaining opponents is a blasé 22–14, just 17–14 when removing FCS opponents. Other than the opener against Miami, the Irish don’t play the teams that currently have the best records in the ACC: Georgia Tech, Louisville, Virginia or California. There is not a lot of meat to find on the bone.
It did not help the Irish that future opponent USC lost to Illinois, dropping from the unbeaten ranks and exiting the AP Top 25. Same with Pittsburgh, Syracuse, NC State and Boston College all losing over the weekend. It would benefit Notre Dame’s cause if undefeated Navy continues to excel in the American and Boise State wins the Mountain West—but having some valuable power-conference accolades would help more.
The path to the playoff is likely as follows: finish 10–2 and pummel everyone on the way; root for Miami and Texas A&M to remain strong; root for USC to rebound; root for losses to pile up in the Big Ten and SEC for potential contenders. Chaos and parity would be two-loss Notre Dame’s best friends in any playoff scenario.
Who Won September?
A final check-in on what the landscape looks like now that most nonconference games are in the books. Which leagues are thriving, which are flailing and where are the playoff contenders?
SEC (22)
- Overall nonconference record: 42–6.
- Record vs. Power 4/Notre Dame: 11–4.
- Record vs. rest of FBS: 21–2.
- Record vs. FCS: 10–0.
- Number of teams currently in The Dash playoff bracket: Five (Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, Alabama).
- Other contenders: Georgia, Missouri, Texas, LSU, Tennessee, Mississippi State.
- League’s best nonconference win: Texas A&M at Notre Dame.
- League’s worst nonconference loss: Florida at home to South Florida.
- Overall assessment: Best conference in the country to date, by a fairly substantial margin.
Big Ten (23)
- Overall record: 42–9.
- Record vs. Power 4/Notre Dame: 5–6.
- Record vs. rest of FBS: 24–3.
- Record vs. FCS: 13–0.
- Number of teams currently in The Dash playoff bracket: Four (Oregon, Ohio State, Indiana, Penn State).
- Other contenders: Maryland, Michigan, Illinois, USC, Washington.
- League’s best nonconference win: Ohio State over Texas.
- League’s worst nonconference loss: Pick a UCLA debacle.
- Overall assessment: Not much in the way of signature wins. The best thing the Big Ten did on the road was Illinois thumping Duke.
Big 12 (24)
- Overall record: 39–9.
- Record vs. Power 4/Notre Dame: 10–6 (including Arizona–Kansas State in a nonleague game).
- Record vs. rest of FBS: 14–3.
- Record vs. FCS: 15–0.
- Number of teams currently in The Dash playoff bracket: One (Texas Tech).
- Other contenders: Iowa State, BYU, Houston, Utah, Arizona State.
- League’s best nonconference win: Iowa State over Iowa.
- League’s worst nonconference loss: Kansas State at home to Army.
- Overall assessment: The record is pretty shiny, but not built on much other than beating up the ACC. Which does count for something.
ACC (25)
- Overall record: 35–17.
- Record vs. Power 4/Notre Dame: 6–13 (including NC State–Virginia in a nonleague game).
- Record vs. rest of FBS: 15–4.
- Record vs. FCS: 14–0.
- Number of teams currently in The Dash playoff bracket: One (Miami).
- Other contenders: Georgia Tech, Louisville, Virginia, Florida State.
- League’s best nonconference win: Miami over Notre Dame.
- League’s worst nonconference loss: Cal being bludgeoned by San Diego State, 34–0.
- Overall assessment: Tough look. The ACC went 1–6 against the Big 12, which could leave a mark when it comes to trying to get multiple teams in the playoff. Clemson and SMU have been early disappointments.
American (26)
- Overall record: 28–16.
- Record vs. Power 4/Notre Dame: 6–11.
- Record vs. rest of FBS: 11–4.
- Record vs. FCS: 11–1.
- Number of teams currently in The Dash playoff bracket: One (Memphis).
- Other contenders: South Florida, Tulane, Navy, North Texas.
- League’s best nonconference win: South Florida at Florida. Or maybe Tulane over Duke.
- League’s worst nonconference loss: Army to Tarleton State.
- Overall assessment: It’s been a great month for the American, which has clearly established itself as the top Group of 6 conference.
Mountain West (27)
- Overall record: 25–18.
- Record vs. Power 4/Notre Dame: 3–11.
- Record vs. rest of FBS: 10–7.
- Record vs. FCS: 12–0.
- Number of teams currently in The Dash playoff bracket: Zero.
- Contenders: UNLV and Boise State.
- League’s best nonconference win: San Diego State walloping otherwise unbeaten Cal.
- League’s worst nonconference loss: Nevada at home to otherwise winless Middle Tennessee.
- Overall assessment: Not a banner year for the MWC, which got off to a bad start with Boise State being throttled by South Florida and hasn’t done enough to overcome it.
Sun Belt (28)
- Overall record: 25–26.
- Record vs. Power 4/Notre Dame: 1–14.
- Record vs. rest of FBS: 10–12.
- Record vs. FCS: 14–0.
- Number of teams currently in The Dash playoff bracket: Zero.
- Contenders: Old Dominion, whose only loss was a competitive one against undefeated Indiana.
- League’s best nonconference win: Old Dominion over Virginia Tech, ending the Hokies tenure of Brent Pry.
- League’s worst nonconference loss: Louisiana provided Eastern Michigan its only victory to date.
- Overall assessment: Outside the state of Virginia, where Old Dominion and James Madison are both 3–1, there isn’t a lot to grab your attention.
Conference USA (29)
- Overall record: 18–24.
- Record vs. Power 4/Notre Dame: 0–11.
- Record vs. rest of FBS: 8–12.
- Record vs. FCS: 10–1.
- Number of teams currently in The Dash playoff bracket: Zero.
- Contenders: None, thanks.
- League’s best nonconference win: Delaware over Connecticut.
- League’s worst nonconference loss: Middle Tennessee to FCS Austin Peay.
- Overall assessment: It is what it is. Delaware is showing some promise in its first year at the FBS level. Louisiana Tech looks pretty good. Liberty has fallen off a cliff.
Mid-American (30)
- Overall record: 16–34.
- Record vs. Power 4/Notre Dame: 1–22.
- Record vs. rest of FBS: 4–10.
- Record vs. FCS: 11–2.
- Number of teams currently in The Dash playoff bracket: Zero.
- Contenders: Ohio might have a hint of a chance, thanks to having the only power-conference victory in the league.
- League’s best nonconference win: The Bobcats over West Virginia.
- League’s worst nonconference loss: New member Massachusetts’s defeat against FCS Bryant.
- Overall assessment: The MAC might be the hardest-hit league in the country in the new NIL/portal landscape. The days of building a plucky giant killer in that league might be over.
More College Football on Sports Illustrated
Listen to SI’s new college sports podcast, Others Receiving Votes, below or on Apple and Spotify. Watch the show on SI’s YouTube channel.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Forde-Yard Dash: The Obstacles Notre Dame Has to Clear in Order to Make the CFP.
