Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football, where 0–9 Massachusetts now stands alone as the last winless team in FBS. First Quarter: Does the College Football Playoff Really Need More Teams? Second Quarter: More Heisman Candidates, Not Less. Third Quarter: Finding a Way Back From the Wilderness.
Fourth Quarter: Old Guard vs. Newbies in Major Showdowns
The Dash is no fan of what conference realignment has wrought. But that’s a closed matter, and here in Season 2 after the seismic shifts we have several enticing matchups this weekend that will impact power conference races.
In the SEC, newbies head east:
Texas at Georgia (31)
Both have huge rivalry games Thanksgiving weekend, but this one will set the stage for how much is at stake when those contests are played. The Longhorns (7–2) go between the hedges for the first time since 1957, with a massive amount riding on it. A loss probably ejects them from College Football Playoff contention, while the Bulldogs (8–1) would be pushed down the pecking order with a defeat.
Both teams have persevered through some rough patches, with Georgia entering on a five-game winning streak and Texas having won four in a row. The burials of both the Dawgs’ defense and Horns QB Arch Manning now look a touch premature.
Line: Georgia by 6½
Dash pick: Georgia 23, Texas 16. Kirby Smart beat Steve Sarkisian twice last year and makes it a hat trick Saturday night.
Oklahoma at Alabama (32)
The path is clear but not necessarily easy for the Crimson Tide to reach Atlanta for the SEC title game and thus the playoff—beat the Sooners in Tuscaloosa, Ala., and beat Auburn on the road two weeks later. But the game that kept the Tide out of the CFP last year was this one, when they were routed by a lackluster Oklahoma team in Norman, Okla.
Alabama is a much better place this time around, and on paper is the better team. But the setup is good for the Sooners—they’re coming off an open date while Bama is coming off the annual grudge match with LSU.
Line: Alabama by 6½
Dash pick: Alabama 21, Oklahoma 12. The Sooners’ passing game is shrinking as the season progresses, and the Tide defense has been pretty buttoned up of late.
In the Big Ten, the old guard goes west:
Iowa at USC (33)
The Trojans (7–2, 5–1) are lurking, hoping that Ohio State, Indiana or Oregon will slip and give them an opening at the Big Ten title game (and the playoff). They can take matters into their own hands against the Ducks next week, but first they need to remain undefeated at home by beating the Hawkeyes. Iowa (6–3, 4–2) also is loitering on the outside fringe of the Big Ten race and needs some mayhem to happen—including causing some right here.
The last time Iowa played USC in Los Angeles was 1976, when the Trojans were near the peak of their powers and the Hawkeyes most certainly were not. This time around, the key matchup is USC’s passing offense (most prolific in the Big Ten in yards per game) vs. the Iowa pass defense (second in the league in efficiency).
Line: USC by 6½
Dash pick: USC 27, Iowa 23. A second straight close loss for the Hawkeyes against a Pac-12 evacuee.
Minnesota at Oregon (34)
The Ducks (8–1, 5–1) are in the thick of the playoff race. The Gophers (6–3, 4–2) are not mathematically eliminated but need a lot of help. This shouldn’t be a close game, but the setup favors P.J. Fleck’s boat rowers—Minnesota is coming off an open date, while Oregon is coming back from a Midwest slog at Iowa and turning around for a Friday kickoff.
The Gophers are 6–1 when they turn the ball over fewer than two times. They’re 0–2 when they turn it over twice or more. Ball security will be key to any upset hopes.
Line: Oregon by 24½
Dash pick: Oregon 30, Minnesota 14.
(There are two other old vs. new Big Ten games, but neither Purdue at Washington nor Ohio State at UCLA are worth talking about.)
And then there is the Big 12 five-pack (35). Of the six teams with one or two league losses, five of them are in action against teams that are outside the thick of the race. In the league of constant churn—in terms of both membership and who is in contention—you need constantly updated information.
Arizona at Cincinnati
Title contender: Bearcats (7–2, 5–1), who joined the league in 2023. Wildcats joined in ’24. Line: Cincinnati by 6½. Dash pick: Cincinnati 35, Arizona 28.
West Virginia at Arizona State
Title contender: Sun Devils (6–3, 4–2), who joined the league last year. Mountaineers arrived in 2012. Line: ASU by 11½. Dash pick: Arizona State 24, West Virginia 14.
Central Florida at Texas Tech
Title contender: Red Raiders (9–1, 6–1) who joined the league when it formed in 1996. Knights arrived in 2023. Line: Texas Tech by 23½. Dash pick: Texas Tech 35, UCF 7.
Utah at Baylor
Title contender: Utes (7–2, 4–2), who joined the league last year. Baylor has been around since the beginning. Line: Utah by 7½. Dash pick: Utah 31, Baylor 21.
TCU at BYU
Title contender: Cougars (8–1, 5–1), who joined the league in 2023. Horned Frogs arrived in ’12. Line: BYU by 5½. Dash pick: TCU 24, BYU 23.
Does Pitt Tank?
The other big game of the weekend, Notre Dame at Pittsburgh (36), presents an uncomplicated storyline for the Fighting Irish and a more nuanced situation for the Panthers.
Notre Dame (7–2) needs to win its last big test, then take care of business against Syracuse and Stanford (a combined 6–14) to make the playoff. Pitt (7–2 and on a five-game winning streak) is setting its sights on making the ACC championship game and winning it, rightly realizing that the ACC looks like a one-bid league and this nonconference matchup can only get the Panthers so far.
Pat Narduzzi (37) all but declared the result of this game optional Monday. Asked if it’s a must-win situation, he said, “Absolutely not. It is not an ACC game. … I’d gladly get beat 103 or 110 to 10. They could put 100 up on us as long as we win the next two after that.”
Pitt’s final two games are slobberknockers: at Georgia Tech and home against Miami. Will Narduzzi rest (or limit) his best players Saturday to be ready for those? If so, this could be a Notre Dame win that looks good on paper without proving much.
Coach Who Earned His Comp Car This Week
Joey McGuire (38), Texas Tech
Nobody was completely sure whether the former high school coach was high-level college head coaching material through his first three seasons. He was a respectable 23–16, but didn’t break through to the top of the Big 12. This season, the dismissive appraisal was that his boosters bought him the best talent in the league—which is true, but he still had to bring the unit together and make it work. Job well done: Tech is a complete team, ranking in the top five nationally in scoring offense and defense.
Coach Who Should Ride the Bus to Work
Manny Diaz (39), Duke
Losing to Connecticut 37–34 was another embarrassing result for the ACC. But Diaz can still do the funniest thing by taking the 5–4 Blue Devils to the ACC championship game. They’re 4–1 in the league, and if they win out, they would vault ahead of Virginia with a head-to-head victory Saturday, then move past the loser of Pittsburgh–Georgia Tech next weekend. Duke would then, in theory, need one more one-loss team to drop a game somewhere down the stretch and the 7–1 and 8–4 Blue Devils are playing in Charlotte for a playoff spot.
Point After
When thirsty in the great football town of Fort Worth, The Dash recommends a drop-in at Panther Island Brewing (40). Order a Hazy Cat IPA and thank The Dash later.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Forde-Yard Dash: New-Age Conference Showdowns With CFP Stakes Loom This Week.
