Though the monsoon season over Kerala will officially come to an end on Sunday, with the State receiving an enhanced rainfall during the northeast monsoon, the overall rain scenario in Kerala in 2023 was not a promising one. It was one of the recent driest years for the State in terms of annual rainfall. Kerala received a cumulative annual rainfall of 2,202.3 mm in 2023 (from January 1 to December 30) against the long period average of 2,889.9 mm, a drop of around 24%.
There was a drop of 28% in winter rain (from January 1 to February 28). During the pre-monsoon period as well (from March 1 to May 31), the State witnessed a shortage of 34% rainfall. Further, the four-month southwest monsoon season which roughly provides around 70% of the annual rainfall in Kerala played truant this year with the State recording the third largest southwest monsoon-deficient year in its recorded history of monsoon. The only relief was the northeast monsoon which, triggered by the weather systems over the Bay of Bengal, provided 27% surplus rains for the State.
Low water level in reservoirs
However, the late surge was not sufficient to bridge the rain deficiency for the three other seasons. As a result, the water levels in reservoirs under the Kerala State Electricity Board (KSEB) plummeted to a new low. The effective storage in dams under the KSEB as of Saturday was 68%. In Idukki, which handles the bulk of the hydel power production in the State, the storage level was 59% on Saturday. The overall storage was 73% last year during the same time and storage at Idukki was 70%.
In 2022, the rainfall in Kerala was normal with the State receiving around 85% more rain than the normal during the pre-monsoon period. 2021 was the one of wettest years in the history of the State, with it receiving an annual rainfall of 3,610.2 mm, the highest annual rainfall in 60 years. Now with the deficient rains and drying effect of El Nino, the summer is likely to be harsh across the State. Already, temperature has started to climb up to the 38-39 degree Celsius mark in parts of north and central Kerala.
Mercury to go up earlier
Though there is no direct link between El Nino and Indian monsoon and summer, the shortfall in rain is expected to push the mercury up a little bit earlier than expected, feel India Meteorological Department (IMD) experts.
