Almost exactly one week ago, in the throes of Peter Mandelson’s sacking as British ambassador in Washington, the chances of a successful state visit by Donald Trump, or even Sir Keir Starmer’s survival as prime minister, were looking slim. Indeed, after the assassination of the US activist Charlie Kirk, there was some gossip about the visit being called off. The “unprecedented” and “exquisite” honour, as the president calls it, of his second state visit to the UK was definitely hanging in the balance.
Now the fever-dream that enveloped Westminster last weekend has evaporated and seems absurd. This is in fact the best possible evidence for how well the trip went – that it now seems pre-ordained, such was its order and harmonious ambience.
The whole Mandelson-Epstein scandal was despatched by President Trump with five, admittedly improbable, words: “I don’t know him, actually.” In a rare successful attack by Kemi Badenoch at the last session of Prime Minister's Questions she focussed on what Sir Keir knew and when about Lord Mandelson’s association with his self-described “best pal”, Jeffrey Epstein.
The truth turns out to be less damning than feared. Once it became clear that Sir Keir had not read the most damaging of the emails sent by Lord Mandelson in 2008, ones where he urged his friend to fight on and clear his name, the prime minister was himself moving into the clear.
Even if it was an unwise appointment, the questions about the prime minister’s own culpability seem to have been answered; and nothing that has emerged in recent days has suggested otherwise. It would hardly be in Mr Trump’s interests to suggest otherwise, and so it proved. The much-feared joint press conference passed off without much incident. Mr Trump, who genuinely enjoyed himself, and wanted a successful trip just as much as the prime minister or the King did, kept his usual aggressive instincts and unpredictable ways under control.
Overwhelmingly, the state visit, including its political elements, was a success, even allowing for extremely low expectations. The ceremonials were flawless, and the royal family showed their usefulness in projecting “soft power” with countless thoughtful gestures. The King’s carefully constructed speech, with a well-nuanced note of warning about the military threats facing Europe, was accepted in the right spirit by President Trump. He returned the compliment, so to speak, towards the end of the visit by disagreeing respectfully with Sir Keir, on Gaza, on green energy, and immigration. On Russia, reflecting his own conflicted position, the president professed once again that he feels let down by Vladimir Putin, and how pushing the world price of oil lower could force the Russian war machine to collapse. He may be shifting back to reality.
There were sufficient areas of agreement during the trip to constitute concrete successes – hundreds of billions of pounds and dollars in cross-border investment, talk of cooperation in AI, quantum computing, life sciences and aerospace, plus the Tech Prosperity Deal. The British did not, in the event, secure an improved trade deal and lower tariffs in steel, and critics are right to wonder where the balance of advantage lies in technological cooperation. However, if there is to be any prospect of the UK becoming an “AI superpower”, as Sir Keir pledges, it can only be done in partnership with the United States.
It is a little odd that Anglo-American relations should be talked up so lavishly at a time when the Atlantic alliance has never felt weaker, and the Trump administration has raised tariffs to historically high levels, albeit more favourable to Britain than the rest of the world. Yet, of the relationship today, the president declared that “the word special doesn't begin to do it justice”. Well, it was demonstrably stronger in the Reagan-Thatcher era, and also during Tony Blair’s hazardous liaison with George W Bush. However, improbable as it is, the Manhattan real estate guy and the human rights lawyer do seem to genuinely like and respect one another. That is at least a basis for repairing relations and getting America back on the right side in geopolitics.
Politically, the state visit was a win for both men, but especially so for Sir Keir. It compared well with the other direct comparisons – the presidential visits during Mr Trump’s first term, when he was hosted by Theresa May and Boris Johnson, respectively. The past days have been a considerable test for the prime minister, and there was no guarantee of success. Far from it. It should serve as a reminder to his party of the asset they have in their present leader, and make them think again about challenging him or eroding his authority by electing a troublemaking deputy.
Soon, when the party conference season resumes and parliament returns, the same challenges facing the Labour government and the Labour Party will also reappear with the exact same menace as before the state visit, and the resignations of Lord Mandelson and Angela Rayner. The economy, immigration, public services – all difficult, all will take time and tough decisions. Unless and until Sir Keir’s critics are able to construct a convincing alternative policy platform and a credible alternative leader, they should dispense with the reckless notion of ousting a sitting prime minister. As the past week shows, governing isn’t easy, but neither is this government and this prime minister doomed to failure and incapable of recovery.
