MIAMI _ A hurricane watch was issued Tuesday evening for Florida's Big Bend as a tropical depression continued to swirl in the Gulf of Mexico.
Over the next day or two, the National Hurricane Center said the tropical depression is expected to grow more organized and make a northeast turn toward Florida's Gulf Coast, raising the risk of storm surge and flooding in Tampa and other low-lying coastal areas.
As the storm _ to be named Hermine if it strengthens a bit _ tracks to the northwest, it's expected to continue sweeping thunderstorms into South Florida through the week, National Weather Service Miami meteorologists said. Squalls could carry heavy thunderstorms and heavy rain, increasing the risk of flooding, particularly in Southwest Florida where two to five inches of rain in recent days has left the ground saturated. A flood watch was issued Tuesday for most of South Florida, except parts of Monroe County on the mainland.
In a 5 p.m. advisory, National Hurricane Center forecasters said the storm was located about 345 miles west of Key West, with sustained winds topping 35 mph. The storm was moving to the northwest at 5 mph, a slow crawl into the Gulf where warm water awaits and the threat of increasing thunderstorms mounts.
Forecasters made the call to issue a watch between the Anclote River, near Tarpon Springs, and Indian Pass after two computer models called for the storm to become a hurricane. A tropical storm watch was issued for the coast from Indian Pass to the Walton and Bay county line.
Over the last week, the depression danced back and forth, repeatedly threatening to intensify overnight when thunderstorms increase, then encountering stifling wind shear and dry air. Computer models that struggle to forecast weaker systems have also vexed forecasters.
"Two highly reliable models were saying the exact opposite and then they flip flopped. Now neither of those models say it's going to become a hurricane," said NHC senior hurricane specialist Stacey Stewart.
For much of the weekend, the messy storm pounded Cuba with torrential rain. Between seven and eight inches fell in the Artemisa province in the northwest part of the island. To the south and west, heavy rain also soaked the provinces of Cienfuegos and Pinar del Rio. CubaDebate, a government-affiliated website, reported no injuries or damages linked to the weather Tuesday.
The mountainous island has probably helped shred the storm somewhat, raising concern that, as it pulls away, the depression could power up.
In a Monday blog, Weather Underground meteorologist Jeff Masters said the center of the storm also had the potential to shift to the south, "so that it is closer to the heaviest thunderstorms near the western tip of Cuba. If this occurs, a southward shift in the predicted track of (the tropical depression) may be required." That track could move the storm closer to the low-lying Tampa area where storm surge and flooding become a bigger danger.
Forecasters are also watching another tropical depression nearing the Carolina coast. At 5 p.m., the storm was located about 60 miles south, southeast of Cape Hatteras. Sustained winds reached 35 mph and the storm was moving to the northwest at 5 mph. The storm's center should reach North Carolina's Outer Banks by Tuesday afternoon or evening and begin turning back to the northeast on Wednesday, forecasters said. They continued to predict strengthening, with a tropical storm expected to form overnight. Up to three inches of rain could fall over the region, with as much as five inches in some locations.
The north coast of North Carolina, from Cape Lookout to the Oregon Inlet, along with Pamlico Sound, was under a tropical storm warning Tuesday morning, with stormy conditions possible in 12 hours.
Hurricane Gaston also remained far off U.S. shores, about 750 miles east of Bermuda. Sustained winds picked up to 110 mph at 5 p.m. Tuesday as the storm moved east, northeast at about 10 mph. It is expected to speed up over the next couple of days but not get much stronger and likely fizzle in about five days.
