Florida stands to lose more homes _ and real estate value _ to sea-rise damage than any other state in the nation this century, according to a new study.
That conclusion, in a report compiled by the Union of Concerned Scientists, was reached using housing information from Zillow and a flood model from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration that predicts 6 { feet of sea rise by the end of the century.
Previous studies of Zillow data showed that Florida has hundreds of thousands of homes worth billions of dollars with the risk of being inundated by 6 feet of sea rise.
This report, said one of its authors, Rachel Cleetus, talks about "a looming threat flying completely under the radar" _ regular flooding.
"Well before homes go under water we'll start to see chronic inundation that affects home value," she said.
By the end of the century, Florida's number of at-risk homes is estimated to jump from 64,000 to a million. In 2100, the report said, about 1 in 10 homes in Florida will face flooding every other day. That puts the state at the top of the list nationwide for homes at risk.
The report emphasized the domino effect such repetitive floods could have on a community if nothing is done.
As floods grow more frequent and more intense, they'll start chipping away at the value of coastal homes, something initial research shows is happening. As waterlogged homes lose value, their owners may decide that it's easier to abandon them to foreclosure rather than pay a mortgage worth more than the house.
The authors of the report note that this kind of housing crisis would be more severe than any the U.S. has faced before. Unlike housing market crashes, where property values usually bounce back, such homes will be unusable (and unsellable) forever.
Federally backed mortgage buyer Freddie Mac wrote in a 2016 report that the resulting social and economic impacts of climate change are likely to be "greater in total than those experienced in the housing crisis and Great Recession."
The dark possibility hinted at in thee numbers also underlines the potential unsteady future of one of the main sources of revenue for the kinds of projects that save communities from the worst effects of flooding _ a city's tax base.
That's especially visible in Miami Beach, one of South Florida's most vulnerable communities. By 2030, Miami Beach homes paying $17 million in property taxes would face regular flooding. By 2100, that figure would jump to more than $760 million.
Keeping a city dry as seas rise isn't cheap, but some Miami communities are investing in solutions. Miami Beach raised stormwater fees to fund $500 million in street-raising and pump installation projects. Miami's "Forever Bond" was highlighted in the report as a positive story of a community taxing itself to pay for such projects.
The report made it clear that the kind of action South Florida cities are taking now is important. If other communities don't start soon, it will be even harder for them to react to the threat in the future, said Joyce Coffee, president of Climate Resilient Consulting.
"If you don't have these two things _ a tax base and existing momentum _ you're on the losing side of history," she said.
The report did suggest one solution that would significantly change the number of homes at risk. If the world keeps fossil fuel emissions low, like the standards called for in the Paris climate agreement, and ice melt is kept to a minimum, most sea-rise damage could be averted. The authors said that would save 93 percent of Florida's at-risk homes by the end of the century.
The report was compiled just before a new study from 80 Antarctic scientists showed that Arctic ice melting has tripled in a decade. The work suggests that the world has even less time to act to stall the worst effects of climate change.
"We have to radically cut carbon emissions," said Cleetus, author of the real estate risk study. "We have to prepare for the worst case scenario."
