Three weeks on from the events in Miami, the Canadian Grand Prix marks Formula 1's second North American visit at one of its most unique and quietly beloved venues. The Circuit Gilles Villeneuve may not offer a high-octane combination of fast corners, but with its unpredictable weather, long straights and the punishing proximity of its many walls, the race on the picturesque Ile Notre-Dame has delivered more than its fair share of classics.
For the first time in its history, Montreal will also host a sprint weekend, and rain appears to be on the horizon, too. With all that in mind, here are five things to look out for in Montreal.
Will Russell strike back as Montreal's defending winner?
The current Formula 1 championship picture is arguably misrepresenting the battle between the dominant Mercedes duo of Kimi Antonelli and George Russell. They occupy the top two positions with Antonelli on 100 points, 20 clear of his more experienced team-mate after three consecutive victories in Shanghai, Suzuka and Miami.
Antonelli is the only driver with a podium at every grand prix this season, having finished second at the Melbourne opener to Russell, who has since taken second, fourth and fourth again. So looking on paper, Antonelli has been the better driver and is rightfully the bookies’ favourite for the title heading into Canada this weekend - but this writer wholeheartedly disagrees.
That’s because Miami is a bogey track for Russell, who struggles with its low-grip nature and it was even witnessed last year. In 2025, when the Briton was significantly better than his rookie team-mate, he was still outqualified for both the Miami sprint and grand prix so Russell getting beat last time out was no surprise.
Fans should therefore expect the 28-year-old to come back fighting in Canada and for two reasons: a, he won from pole in 2025 and, b, Miami was the first time this year Antonelli held the upper hand throughout after Russell was hit by ill fortune in Shanghai and Suzuka.
So, in this writer’s mind, nothing has really changed since pre-season and surely last year taught us that title fights constantly ebb and flow…
- Ed Hardy
Will Mercedes restore its dominance as upgrades hit Canada?
That´s, of course, if Mercedes gets its own way in Canada as it has done at the majority of 2025's races so far. In Miami, McLaren took a big bite out of the Brackley squad's lead thanks to the first of a two-pronged upgrade package - with reigning world champion Lando Norris winning the sprint event from pole.
Meanwhile, Mercedes kept the vast majority of its novelties back for Montreal, which has made Antonelli's convincing pole-to-flag win during the Miami grand prix somewhat ominous.
Both teams are now bringing a suite of upgrades to Canada, with McLaren teasing "new components across the floor, chassis, front and rear wings, bodywork, halo and roll hoop." According to our information, it's still a significant package though not quite as massive as its Miami update. Mercedes hasn't shown its hand yet, but expect the Silver Arrows to be strong at a circuit Russell drove its predecessor to victory last year from pole.
- Filip Cleeren
Can Alpine continue to lead the midfield?
Alpine had already shown in China and Japan that it has the pace to lead the midfield fight this season, but in Miami it appeared to hold an almost surprising advantage over its direct rivals.
The team comfortably placed both cars inside the top 10 in both qualifying sessions, while Franco Colapinto finished seventh in the grand prix, 20 seconds clear of the next midfield runner. Pierre Gasly’s true potential, meanwhile, remained unclear after his race ended upside down on the opening laps after being tagged by Liam Lawson.
What is certain is that Alpine’s standout weekend in Miami coincided with the introduction of a significant upgrade package – with more developments expected in Montreal – while rivals such as Haas are set to roll out major updates of their own over the Canadian weekend.
That poses an intriguing question heading into round five. During a season where teams are unlocking performance at a rapid rate under this year’s major regulation overhaul, there is no guarantee Alpine can sustain this performance level. If it does in Canada, the Enstone-based outfit could begin to establish itself as the enduring midfield benchmark.
- Federico Faturos
Will Canada be more of the same for Aston Martin?
It was probably a surprise when, in Miami - after a month without racing - Aston Martin was the only team that didn’t submit updates in the document the FIA releases before each grand prix. The team and its engine supplier, Honda, focused on eliminating vibrations caused by the power unit and improving driveability. And while they seem to have put the vibrations behind them, another problem with the gearbox became more evident, and ultimately the result was similar, with Aston seemingly only able to spar with newcomer Cadillac
Fernando Alonso dashed any optimism in front of the media when he all but confirmed his team's fortunes would remain unchanged for at least another couple of months, and that he does not expect major progress until after the summer.
Now, Aston and Honda have continued working on improving the car’s stability and gaining experience on the test bench in Japan, Canada can be a first opportunity to at least focus on squeezing more performance out of its flawed package, which would already be a step forward. Can the stop-start, traction-heavy Gilles Villeneuve circuit work in the team's favour?
It remains to be seen whether the team will introduce changes on the aerodynamic side or if its upgrade sheet will once again be completely blank. If that's the case, we’ll have to see if the progress in terms of deployment and driveability is enough to start seeing some light at the end of the tunnel, or if Canada is more of the same for Aston Martin, Alonso and local driver Lance Stroll.
- Jose Carlos de Celis
Will the weather spring a surprise?
2026 will mark the earliest Canadian Grand Prix in Formula 1 history, taking place on 24 May – as opposed to the previous ‘record’ of 2 June in 1991. Spring can be quite chilly in that part of the world, but the forecast is looking decent for this weekend, with 15C to 19C (59F to 66F) expected for the grand prix’s competitive sessions.
It should be mostly dry, too – with an important caveat: rain is forecast on Sunday, which might spice things up and provide a first picture of wet-weather racing with 2026-spec machinery. For the record, only one of the last 10 Montreal races took place on a wet track – the 2024 round, won by Max Verstappen.
Regardless, the freezing (figuratively speaking) cold of the very first grand prix at Ile Notre-Dame, with 5C (41F) on 8 October 1978, won’t be an issue this weekend. It will get pretty close to this temperature in some mornings, but the track action is scheduled late enough in the day.
- Ben Vinel
