This year’s Tour de France is a real ‘Tour of France’, taking place entirely within French borders for the first time since 2020.
It’s also one of the most brutal routes in recent history, featuring a real ‘Who’s Who’ of the Tour’s most fearsome, infamous climbs: Mont Ventoux, Hautacam, Superbagneres, and one stage features the trifecta of hors-categorie ascents the Col de la Madeleine, Col du Glandon, and Col de la Loze, the highest point of this year’s race (Souvenir Henri Desgrange, named after the Tour’s intrepid founder).
The likes of defending champion Tadej Pogacar, two-time winner Jonas Vingegaard and Olympic and world time trial champion Remco Evenepoel - the favourites to sport the maillot jaune in Paris - will have their work cut out in one of the most fascinating, but difficult, Tours in memory.
There are pitfalls throughout the route for any yellow jersey hopefuls to avoid, with crosswinds threatening to wreak havoc in a tricky, punchy opening week in the north of France, before the real mountains begin almost halfway through the race.
We’ve taken a look at five crucial stages the general classification contenders will have to escape unscathed in order to mount a real challenge - and which could spell the end of a tilt at the title.
Stage 12 - Auch to Hautacam, 180km
The first day in the Pyrenees could spell curtains for some riders’ GC hopes. A 180km run from Auch to Hautacam, the first 100km are largely undulating and unremarkable, with a category-four climb at the 91km mark kicking off the real climbing. There’s a long road up to the category-one Col du Soulor, followed by the cat-two Col des Borderes shortly after, but it’s the summit finish atop the hors categorie Hautacam that’s the real focal point of the day.
Vingegaard will have fond memories of the climb, having broken Pogacar and won the Tour de France on its slopes in 2022. The Slovenian will have unfinished business with it and it’s likely we’ll see some fireworks, even with two more difficult mountain stages to come.
Stage 13 - Loudenvielle to Peyragudes, 11km
Likely to be unlucky Stage 13 for some. The second of two individual time-trials in this year’s race, Stage 13 is a far cry from the flat, specialist-friendly Stage 5, which is tailor-made for Evenepoel. This one is a short but by no means sweet mountainous TT at high altitude, 11km starting in Loudenvielle in the Pyrenees with an undulating, mostly flat first 3km before the road kicks sharply up to the Peyragudes ski station.
The 10th kilometre features highs of 16% gradients and the 8km climb averages 7.9%, so there could be some huge time losses over the course of this TT. Expect to see plenty of debate in the lead-up as to whether riders use TT bikes or regular road bikes, and whether this makes or breaks their Tour.
Stage 14 - Pau to Luchon-Superbagneres, 183km
The third in this trio of mountain stages, fatigue may well play a part in this one after Thursday’s ascent of the Hautacam and the mountainous time trial on Friday. But this is a huge day: four massive climbs including two HCs, the Col du Tourmalet halfway through the stage and the summit finish at the Superbagneres ski station, back on the Tour menu for the first time since 1989, with the cat-one Col d’Aspin and Col de Peyresourde sandwiched in between.
This much climbing in quick succession will sap the legs and even if the stage honours go to a breakaway, we may well see major riders fall victim to the punishing gradients en route to the mountaintop finish.
Stage 18 - Vif to Courchevel-Col de la Loze, 172km
The queen stage of this year’s race. Inevitably this will break some riders’ hearts, with the high altitude playing a part as well as the length and intensity of the climbs. Vingegaard again will have happy memories of this trio of climbs, Pogacar less so, having conceded six minutes to his rival on the hors-categorie Col de la Loze in 2023 (scene of the infamous ‘I’m gone, I’m dead’ line captured on race radio).
The Col de la Loze is the highest point of this year’s race, the Souvenir Henri Desgrange, although it’s approached by its slightly easier eastern flank, from Courchevel. However, Stage 18 still features 5,500m of climbing and hits 2,000m of altitude for the first time in this race, with the Col du Glandon and Col de la Madeleine a fearsome pairing of climbs in their own right, before the finish line at 2,300m above sea level.
Stage 19 - Albertville to La Plagne, 130km
Any gaps widened on Stage 19 can be extended yet further on Stage 19, while any time lost in the highest Alps needs to be recouped here in the second of this mountainous double-header that will no doubt decide the Tour.
The first four climbs will be crucial for the yellow jersey’s team to control and pile pressure on their rivals, with a long descent to navigate before the day’s second HC climb, 20km long up to La Plagne. It’s another exhausting day in the mountains, albeit a bit shorter at 130km, and with another summit finish to contest. It’ll be now or never for any hopefuls for the yellow jersey and a final roll of the dice.
Honourable mentions
While most of our picks for crucial stages come in the latter half of the race, the first week features a multitude of potential banana skins. The first week of a Grand Tour is always a jittery affair and the general classification contenders will have to keep their wits about them on some tricky flatter or punchy stages. Mikel Landa, Soudal Quick-Step’s GC hope at the Giro d’Italia, crashed out on stage one, so there’s always the possibility a technical descent or corner could catch a major name off-guard.
Stage 4 on Tuesday 8 July, a 174km run from Amiens to Rouen, is a case in point, with five categorised climbs packed into the final 50km and an uphill drag to the line. The stage is up and down all day, with plenty of riders likely to be in the fight for the breakaway, and any splits in the bunch could have a grave impact on some riders’ GC hopes.
Stage 10, on Bastille Day - which takes place on a Monday this year, forcing the Tour’s first rest day back to Tuesday - is another tough day in the saddle, and the fatigue in the legs from 10 days straight of racing might mean some riders’ concentration slips. It’s a huge day of climbing in the Massif Central, the first stage in the mountains, and likely to be the first major showdown between the general classification contenders.
And the final stage of the entire race could yet throw up some surprises. Stage 21 is normally a champagne-sipping procession for the yellow jersey and his team, and while they’ll no doubt indulge at the start of the day, the addition of several circuits of Montmartre and its category-four climb could catch some riders out. The final ascent is 6km from the line and the narrow, cobbled streets mean positioning will be key. If the gaps between the top riders are small at this stage, we could see some movement in the general classification ahead of the traditional Champs-Elysees sprint.
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