Thousands more Australians are buying their first property after just one month of a federal housing scheme, but worries about its long-term success persist.
Nearly 2000 more houses were purchased in October compared with the same month in 2024 after the expansion of the federal government's five per cent deposit guarantee for first-home buyers.
There were 5778 homes bought under the scheme in October, which is on pace with Treasury modelling estimating 70,000 properties would be bought under the scheme in the coming year.
But scepticism the scheme will not help nearly as many people as first thought lingers, especially those the scheme was originally designed to help most, such as those on lower incomes.
The government announced in August it would scrap income limits for eligibility and uncap the number of people able to apply each year.
But those potential extra homeowners reflect a middle-income cohort likely to have eventually bought a home regardless of government intervention, a leading economist says.
"The effect of the expansion on the rate of home ownership in Australia will be basically zero," the Grattan Institute's Brendan Coates told AAP.
"You're putting the government's balance sheet at risk for people who are frankly going to buy a house anyway."
Getting more people to buy houses through the scheme was a fulfilment of government promises to help struggling first-home buyers, Housing Minister Clare O'Neil said.
"This means more people paying off their own mortgage and not someone else's," Ms O'Neil said in a statement.
But Mr Coates warned the number of first homes bought with a government guarantee was likely to shrink as higher earners snapped up available houses.
"They might taper off somewhat because those that were already keen to buy are now in a position where they can," he said.
Mr Coates agreed with the government's prediction that the scheme would not have a material long-term impact on house prices, with Treasury modelling suggesting a 0.6 per cent rise after six years.
Speculation the scheme had turbocharged house price growth was fuelled on Monday when house prices were revealed to have risen 1.1 per cent in October, the sharpest monthly rise in more than two years.
"I think the bigger factor there is interest rates have fallen over the course of the last year," Mr Coates said.
