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AAP
AAP
Politics
Zac de Silva

Farrer fight: coalition battles to fend off One Nation

Albury in the seat of Farrer is awash with corflutes ahead of a by-election in the seat. (Mick Tsikas/AAP PHOTOS)

A kaleidoscope of campaign placards have sprung up in downtown Albury where a fierce political dogfight is underway ahead of a key by-election.

Emblazoned in all the colours of the rainbow outside one of two main pre-poll booths, the dozens of corflutes are standard fare for city elections, but it's been 25 years since the seat of Farrer has seen a contest like this.

Just down the road, a non-descript office stands in the shadows with a greyed-out sign hanging above the door.

Aside from a small Australian coat of arms in the front window, little indication remains that this was once the office of Australia's most senior conservative politician: Sussan Ley.

Voters here are generally loyal to their local MPs but when they leave parliament - particularly after Ms Ley's brutal political knifing - all bets are off.

One Nation, Independent, Liberal and National candidates will spend the next week all but glued to the ground outside Albury's two polling booths, doing their best to sway voters ahead of the by-election triggered by Ms Ley's departure.

While this vote won't change the government, three main issues are in focus: access to healthcare, management of the Murray River, and the ongoing fuel crisis.

And then there's the candidates themselves.

David Farley outside polling centre
One Nation candidate David Farley is under heat for his past links with the Australian Labor Party. (Mick Tsikas/AAP PHOTOS)

One Nation's David Farley and Climate 200-backed independent Michelle Milthorpe are the frontrunners in this race, according to recent surveys, with the Liberals lagging in third and the Nationals straggling behind.

While all candidates have found themselves under immense scrutiny, Mr Farley has found himself under increasing pressure to explain his past affiliation with Labor, including reportedly donating to the party and trying to win preselection ahead of the 2022 election.

After a series of media missteps, the One Nation candidate declined to be interviewed for this story and his campaign team did not respond to written questions by deadline.

But at a candidates' forum on Wednesday night he claimed he struggled to fit in with Labor after comparing former leader Julia Gillard to a "non-productive old cow" in 2012.

"I didn't culturally fit with them, principally because of some comments I made about Julia Gillard some years ago," he told the crowd gathered at Albury's Star Hotel, to applause and shouts of "true" from the audience.

The Gillard comments reportedly cost Mr Farley his Labor pre-selection.

One Nation has also come under fierce criticism from the coalition, which argues only a party of government can deliver the health, water and road infrastructure this area so desperately needs.

"You can talk a lot and you can complain a lot in Canberra, but unless you can form a party of government, you're going to be nothing more than a complaints desk," Liberal candidate Raissa Butkowski tells AAP.

Raissa Butkowski at polling place
Liberal candidate Raissa Butkowski is seeking to retain the seat for her party in a tough battle. (Mick Tsikas/AAP PHOTOS)

Similar criticisms have been levelled against Ms Milthorpe but she rejects that.

"(The coalition's also) got a very strong track record here of not being able to deliver on anything in a very long time," she says.

The fact the Liberals and Nationals are barely getting a look-in has not been lost on coalition MPs, who fear Farrer may be a weather vane ahead of the next federal election.

Some coalition insiders would prefer a One Nation victory, fearing it would be difficult to dislodge Ms Milthorpe once elected, particularly given Farrer's history.

The voters of this vast regional electorate, almost the size of England, typically stick with their MPs once they're elected.

When Nationals leader Tim Fisher resigned from parliament after representing the seat for 17 years, Ms Ley swept in to snatch it by just 206 votes in 2001.

Sussan Ley at Parliament House
Former Liberal leader Sussan Ley hung on to the seat for more than two decades. (Lukas Coch/AAP PHOTOS)

She was re-elected another eight times, surviving big swings against the Liberals in 2022 and 2025.

Just four MPs have represented Farrer since its establishment in 1949: its shortest-serving representative, Wal Fife, still spent almost a decade in the role.

Asked about what message the Liberals should take from the electorate's apparent shift away from her party, Ms Butkowski concedes voters are frustrated.

"We're not here to dismiss that... we're taking nothing for granted," she says.

Pressed on the surge in support for One Nation, Ms Butkowski says she's more focused on her own campaign.

"I'm not focused on polling. I think polls are notoriously wrong quite a lot of the time," she tells AAP.

A uComms survey produced for Ms Milthorpe earlier in the campaign put Mr Farley slightly ahead of the independent candidate on primary votes.

Michelle Milthorpe
Independent candidate Michelle Milthorpe claims the coalition have failed the electorate. (Mick Tsikas/AAP PHOTOS)

But a coalition-One Nation preference deal means votes for the Liberals and Nationals are expected to break heavily towards Mr Farley, giving him an edge over his more progressive rival.

Sources across the electorate have questioned to what extent Mr Farley's dalliance with Labor will hurt him on election night.

But with about 15 per cent of voters having already cast a ballot and another week of pre-poll left, the revelations may be too late to matter.

Coalition insiders fear locals have tuned out the steady drumbeat of negative press about One Nation.

Map showing electorate north of the Victorian border
The hotly contested seat represents NSW constituents north of the Victorian border. (Susie Dodds/AAP PHOTOS)

None of the main campaign issues - healthcare, water and fuel - are the conservative party's traditional bread and butter, but that may not matter come voting day.

"They're hell-bent on Pauline Hanson. She's the vibe of the moment," one well-placed coalition source tells AAP.

In the South Australian state election in March, One Nation picked up four lower house seats and three upper-house ones. 

Some coalition MPs fear the trend may continue, particularly in other regional seats.

Almost exactly one year on from Labor's landslide election victory, the electoral map is being redrawn.

By-election night in Farrer may show exactly how far the boundaries have shifted.

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