Fantasy football draft prep: When to take a quarterback

It’s not a question. It is a directive.

There are many ways to address the position of quarterback in a fantasy football draft, but there also is the best way to do it. And that is waiting on the position.

Time after time, inexperienced players draft a quarterback early, or they draft two star quarterbacks. It makes sense … the name value is what jumps out at people. It’s a quarterback-driven league, and most casual gamers recognize the Andrew Lucks over the David Montgomerys of the world.

This is not to say it is impossible to win drafting an early-round quarterback. It definitely is doable, but that pick, along with all of the other core positional choices in the first half of the draft need to be on the mark. That rarely happens for anyone, let alone a novice player.

In this first table, the illustration is players with an average draft position after Round 5 but not one that went deeper than the 18th quarterback chosen that year. This helps show the difference in placement for QBs were were routinely drafted and removes wild outliers, such as Jared Goff in 2017, who were not typically selected. The long exception in this table is the 2016 inclusion of Matt Ryan. He was right on the cusp of that No. 18 spot and had several times been selected inside of the top 18 quarterbacks.

Year	ADP rk	Pick	Name	Pos	Team	Overall	Result
2018	15	10.10	Pat Mahomes	QB	KC	118.10	1
2015	15	10.11	Cam Newton	QB	CAR	119.10	1
2017	5	6.04	Russell Wilson	QB	SEA	64.30	1
2016	20	13.03	Matt Ryan	QB	ATL	146.50	2
2018	13	9.12	Matt Ryan	QB	ATL	108.10	2
2017	10	8.06	Cam Newton	QB	CAR	89.90	2
2015	6	6.07	Tom Brady	QB	NE	67.00	2
2014	14	9.10	Russell Wilson	QB	SEA	106.10	3
2016	5	6.01	Drew Brees	QB	NO	61.10	3
2018	14	10.07	Ben Roethlisberger	QB	PIT	114.50	3
2015	7	6.09	Russell Wilson	QB	SEA	68.70	3
2014	17	11.08	Ben Roethlisberger	QB	PIT	128.40	5
2015	17	11.08	Carson Palmer	QB	ARI	128.40	5
2017	17	11.12	Carson Wentz	QB	PHI	132.30	5
2016	13	10.02	Kirk Cousins	QB	WAS	109.60	5
2018	9	8.04	Andrew Luck	QB	IND	87.60	5
2017	9	8.02	Kirk Cousins	QB	WAS	86.30	6
2018	16	11.04	Jared Goff	QB	LAR	123.90	7
2017	15	10.08	Matthew Stafford	QB	DET	116.50	7
2016	15	10.11	Matthew Stafford	QB	DET	118.60	7
2017	13	10.01	Philip Rivers	QB	LAC	108.70	8
2016	14	10.06	Tyrod Taylor	QB	BUF	114.30	9
2015	12	8.11	Matthew Stafford	QB	DET	94.60	9

The “result” column on the right depicts where the player finished in fantasy points among quarterbacks in the given years. The purpose is to show relative value of waiting in the last five seasons. This doesn’t even include the group of quarterbacks who have been drafted after Round 5 and simply matched the expectations or even slightly exceeded them.

Year	ADP rk	Pick	Name	Pos	Team	Overall	Result
2018	5	6.07	Drew Brees	QB	NO	66.90	8
2014	6	6.01	Tom Brady	QB	NE	61.40	9
2014	7	6.08	Matt Ryan	QB	ATL	67.60	7
2016	9	8.02	Blake Bortles	QB	JAX	86.10	8
2017	12	9.05	Ben Roethlisberger	QB	PIT	101.00	10
2016	12	9.07	Derek Carr	QB	OAK	103.50	11
2018	12	9.11	Philip Rivers	QB	LAC	107.30	11
2014	12	9.06	Philip Rivers	QB	LAC	102.30	12
2015	13	9.10	Eli Manning	QB	NYG	105.90	10
2017	14	10.05	Dak Prescott	QB	DAL	112.80	11
2015	14	10.05	Philip Rivers	QB	LAC	113.30	12

Quarterbacks chosen in the first eight rounds who didn’t meet expectations in that same five-year window:

Year	ADP rk	Pick	Name	Pos	Team	Overall	Result
2016	1	3.11	Cam Newton	QB	CAR	34.50	17
2015	1	2.05	Andrew Luck	QB	IND	16.90	28
2017	1	2.11	Aaron Rodgers	QB	GB	23.40	29
2018	1	3.07	Aaron Rodgers	QB	GB	31.40	6
2014	2	2.07	Drew Brees	QB	NO	19.10	6
2015	2	3.03	Aaron Rodgers	QB	GB	27.10	7
2017	3	4.06	Drew Brees	QB	NO	41.70	9
2016	3	5.05	Russell Wilson	QB	SEA	53.20	10
2018	3	5.02	Tom Brady	QB	NE	50.30	14
2015	3	5.07	Peyton Manning	QB	DEN	54.90	34
2018	4	6.01	Russell Wilson	QB	SEA	61.00	9
2014	4	4.12	Matthew Stafford	QB	DET	48.40	15
2017	4	5.08	Matt Ryan	QB	ATL	56.40	15
2015	5	6.04	Ben Roethlisberger	QB	PIT	63.80	20
2018	6	6.11	Cam Newton	QB	CAR	71.00	13
2016	6	6.09	Tom Brady	QB	NE	68.50	15
2017	6	7.02	Derek Carr	QB	OAK	74.20	19
2018	7	7.10	Kirk Cousins	QB	MIN	81.70	12
2016	7	6.12	Ben Roethlisberger	QB	PIT	72.00	18
2017	7	7.05	Marcus Mariota	QB	TEN	76.80	18
2015	8	7.06	Matt Ryan	QB	ATL	78.20	19
2016	8	7.12	Carson Palmer	QB	ARI	83.80	19
2017	8	7.10	Jameis Winston	QB	TB	82.40	22
2018	8	8.01	Carson Wentz	QB	PHI	84.50	23
2014	8	7.02	Nick Foles	QB	PHI	73.90	29
2014	9	7.10	Jay Cutler	QB	CHI	81.80	14
2014	10	8.02	Tony Romo	QB	DAL	85.50	11
2016	10	8.09	Eli Manning	QB	NYG	93.30	22
2015	10	7.10	Sam Bradford	QB	PHI	82.10	24

The list of quarterbacks drafted in the first five rounds who actually approached expectations?

Year	ADP rk	Pick	Name	Pos	Team	Overall	Result
2014	1	1.10	Peyton Manning	QB	DEN	10.40	4
2017	2	3.06	Tom Brady	QB	NE	29.60	3
2018	2	4.10	Deshaun Watson	QB	HOU	46.50	4
2016	2	4.03	Aaron Rodgers	QB	GB	38.70	1
2014	3	2.10	Aaron Rodgers	QB	GB	22.20	1
2016	4	5.10	Andrew Luck	QB	IND	58.30	4
2015	4	5.09	Drew Brees	QB	NO	56.80	6
2014	5	5.07	Andrew Luck	QB	IND	55.20	2

Quarterbacks drafted in the last five years, inside of the top five rounds of passers chosen in each given year, resulted in eight being about what gamers paid for, with 11 more being busts of varying degrees. Eight players. That’s it. And only four of them were able to exceed their draft placement.

Of the 19 times a player was chosen inside of the first five rounds, 21 percent of them exceeded expectations. Four met their expectations of finishing within two places of their respective ADP ranking, good for a whopping 37 percent of players chosen met or exceeded. Of the 68 players chosen after Round 5, 32 percent of them exceeded expectations and nearly 49 percent of the players were as good or better. Almost 52 percent of quarterbacks chosen after Round 6 exceeded their ADP ranking, and only 22 percent were total busts at that stage of the draft.

Two-quarterback leagues

I’m bumping my first quarterback target into roughly the fifth round and then coming back for a second in the next four rounds. In some scenarios, should I land a trustworthy No. 1, my second may wait a little more. In rarer cases, I’m waiting late and will pair two high-upside guys to take a chance on playing the matchups for my No. 2 starter.

Presuming the league is a 12-teamer, you have 24 quarterbacks being used each week. It’s improbable to find 24 NFL starting quarterbacks worthy of a typical fantasy play on a given week, so there’s often “plug your nose” decisions to be made if you indeed wait it out to the latter stages before securing your No. 2 and 3 passers.

2019 prediction for traditional leagues

Which quarterbacks should meet or exceed their draft placement in 2019?

Rk	Pick	Name	Pos	Team	Bye	Overall	Proj. rk	Diff
1	3.03	Pat Mahomes	QB	KC	12	26.9	1	0
2	5.05	Andrew Luck	QB	IND	6	52.9	2	0
3	5.11	Aaron Rodgers	QB	GB	11	58.9	5	2
4	6.01	Deshaun Watson	QB	HOU	10	60.5	3	-1
5	6.08	Baker Mayfield	QB	CLE	7	68.2	4	-1
6	7.05	Matt Ryan	QB	ATL	9	76.7	6	0
7	7.07	Drew Brees	QB	NO	9	79.1	7	0
8	8.01	Carson Wentz	QB	PHI	10	85	13	5
9	8.06	Kyler Murray	QB	ARI	12	90.1	14	5
10	9.02	Russell Wilson	QB	SEA	11	98.3	10	0
11	9.05	Cam Newton	QB	CAR	7	101.2	11	0
12	9.07	Jared Goff	QB	LAR	9	102.7	8	-4
13	10.05	Jameis Winston	QB	TB	7	113.3	9	-4
14	10.1	Philip Rivers	QB	LAC	12	117.8	15	1
15	11.01	Ben Roethlisberger	QB	PIT	7	121	16	1
16	11.05	Tom Brady	QB	NE	10	124.8	17	1
17	11.1	Dak Prescott	QB	DAL	8	130.1	12	-5
18	12.04	Jimmy Garoppolo	QB	SF	4	136.3	18	0

The caveat here is whether Andrew Luck’s calf injury continues to hamper him into the regular season. There is value to be found in Jared Goff and Jameis Winston. So many people are extremely high on the receiving corps from both the Los Angeles Rams and Tampa Bay Buccaneers but are simultaneously down on their respective quarterbacks? Makes no sense.

Dak Prescott could be a steal as the No. 17 quarterback in ADP rankings, although the holdout of Ezekiel Elliott will make it a challenge to climb into the top-12 fantasy quarterbacks.

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Carson Wentz and Kyler Murray present minefields for fantasy purposes. Both have tremendous promise but so many possible pitfalls to avoid. Gamers should remain cautiously optimistic. In an ideal setting, both quarterbacks are backups.

The most important take away from this year’s review of ADP vs. projected results is that fantasy footballers are finally (FINALLY!!!) backing off on drafting quarterbacks so early. Looking at the last five seasons, 13 quarterbacks in five years were taken in the first four rounds. We have just one this year, down from a 2.6 per-year average. Waiting on quarterbacks is the best way to go, and the data backs up the claim.