C.J. Stroud took the NFL and fantasy football worlds by storm as a rookie, throwing for an impressive 4,108 yards and 23 touchdowns while earning Offensive Rookie of the Year honors. He also finished with 276 fantasy points, which was good enough to rank ninth among quarterbacks. Stroud even averaged more points per game than Patrick Mahomes.
That rookie success created a lot of hype around Stroud in 2024 fantasy drafts, especially after the Texans added Joe Mixon and Stefon Diggs to what was projected to be one of the NFL’s most explosive offenses. In fact, Stroud was a top-eight quarterback based on ADP data.
Well, you know what they say about the best laid plans.
Stroud went on to struggle mightily as an NFL sophomore, throwing for an average of fewer than 54.7 yards per game compared to his rookie campaign. He averaged fewer scoring strikes, threw more interceptions and saw his fantasy points-per-game average sink more than five full points. In all, Stroud would finish a disappointing 18th among quarterbacks.
In his defense, Stroud did lose Diggs to a knee injury after eight games. He would later lose Tank Dell to a knee injury of his own, so Stroud’s options in the passing game were not what was expected before the start of the season. With that said, he still averaged a modest 14.7 points in the eight games Diggs played. Dell played in seven of those contests, as well.
2025 Fantasy Outlook
The Texans focused their offseason on improving the weapons around Stroud. With Dell already ruled out for the 2025 campaign, the team traded for veteran Christian Kirk to take over as their new slot receiver. The team also drafted a pair of wideouts, Jayden Higgins in Round 2 and Jaylin Noel in Round 3, to go along with Kirk and alpha receiver Nico Collins.
Houston also added offensive line help in the form of OT Cam Robinson and second-round rookie OT Aireontae Ersery. The team also has a new offensive coordinator in Nick Caley, who replaces the fired Bobby Slowik. Caley spent the last two seasons as the tight ends coach in Los Angeles under Rams head man Sean McVay, and will come in looking to undo what was done negatively as it pertains to Stroud and the passing game last season.
Draft Or Pass
Stroud’s lackluster 2024 campaign already has his 2025 average draft position falling. In fact, he’s the QB14 based on the ADP data at the NFFC website. That means he’s being picked on average as a fantasy backup, which eliminates at least some of the risk that’s involved in drafting him. If you land Stroud in Round 9 or beyond and he flops, you’re in a much better situation than you would have been drafting him as your starter in 2024.
With that said, and with the offseason moves the Texans have made to improve Stroud’s protection and weapons, he’s certainly a player I feel comfortable targeting in drafts … as long as the price is right. I have Stroud ranked 18th among quarterbacks, and he lasted until the 14th round in the SI 12-team PPR Mock Draft.
At that point, he could be a bargain.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Fantasy Football Draft Or Pass: Will C.J. Stroud Rebound In Houston?.
