Chrisitan McCaffrey will be the single biggest risk-reward player in fantasy football drafts this season, and it’s not even close. Literally one of the most productive running backs in NFL history, CMC’s career stats put him right there with the likes of LaDainian Tomlinson and Marshall Faulk. When healthy, there’s rarely ever been a better fantasy running back.
Notice I said, “when healthy.”
McCaffrey and injuries have unfortunately gone hand in hand over the last five years. In his final two seasons with the Carolina Panthers, McCaffrey played in just 10 combined games due to injuries. He went on to post huge fantasy totals between the Panthers and the 49ers in 2022, vaulting him back into the consensus top spot in most 2023 fantasy drafts.
The veteran was an absolute fantasy monster that year, posting 2,023 scrimmage yards, 21 total touchdowns and 391.3 fantasy points while playing in 16 games. That also restored a level of faith in McCaffrey in terms of his previous health issues heading into 2024 drafts.
The injury bug bit McCaffrey again, however, as Achilles issues cost him the first nine weeks of action. He would return in Week 10, but his numbers left much to be desired. In fact, he averaged 12 fantasy points in his three-plus games before he … you guessed it … got hurt again. An ankle injury against Buffalo in Week 13 cost him the rest of the season.
While it was only three-plus games, McCaffrey’s 12 point-per-game average was the worst of his career. He also averaged just four yards per carry last season, which was his lowest total since 2020. However, he averaged an insane 30.1 points in three games that year.
2025 Fantasy Outlook
McCaffrey has been declared 100 percent healthy by Niners head coach Kyle Shanahan, so he won’t have any limitations in OTAs and into training camp this summer. That, of course, is good news. Looking back at McCaffrey’s recent history, however, being at 100 percent might be a temporary thing. And by might, I mean it is very likely to be a temporary thing.
The team made several moves in the offseason that will change the look of the backfield, trading Jordan Mason to the Minnesota Vikings and losing Elijah Mitchell to the Chiefs as a free agent. The Niners did add a back to the mix, rookie James Jordan, who will be third on the depth chart behind McCaffrey and second year running back Isaac Guerendo.
Fantasy fans might see this as a positive, as there are fewer established backs on the roster who could steal touches from McCaffrey. While that might be true, that doesn’t change the fact that CMC has failed to play more than seven games in three of the last five years.
Draft Or Pass
McCaffrey’s current ADP on the NFFC website is 16.3, making him the seventh running back off the board. At Underdog Fantasy, however, he’s an absurd 10.8 (RB5). That’s just insane. I’m not opposed to taking a risk on a player or two in a fantasy draft, but not with my first or second round pick … and not on a player like McCaffrey who is not only prone to injuries but is also potentially on the precipice of a statistical decline at the age of 29.
In the Super Bowl era (1966-present), there have been only eight running backs aged 29 or older who have scored 300-plus PPR points. Just six others scored 275-plus points. These are the level of numbers McCaffrey would have to reach to be worth his current ADP … and the majority of those players didn’t have the injury concerns McCaffrey has had in the pros.
Verdict
McCaffrey as a top-24 overall fantasy draft pick is a hard pass for me.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Fantasy Football Draft Or Pass: Is Christian McCaffrey Still An Elite Running Back?.
