OAKMONT, Pa. — The pace has been set at Oakmont Country Club at the quarter pole, and it is the 4 under shot by J.J. Spaun.
But the U.S. Open is a never a sprint, and Thursday’s modest carnage could grow exponentially over the next three rounds. Oakmont, as you know, is a brute of a U.S. Open course that has tormented players for nearly a century.
How difficult will it get? We can’t wait to find out, and in the meantime Sports Illustrated’s writers and editors have gathered to ponder this statement in U.S. Open Round 1 Fact or Fiction:
An even-par total will be enough to win this U.S. Open.
Bob Harig, SI Golf Senior Writer: FICTION. Someone is going to shoot a decent score each day, and it’s quite possible someone does that twice. The person who does will win and be under par. So far, there are 10 players under par. That’s not very many. And that number is likely to dwindle. And with some rain in the Saturday forecast, there is even more chance of decent scoring.
John Pluym, SI.com Managing Editor: FACT. The course will get more challenging unless it rains on the weekend. We’ll still see the usual suspects competing on Sunday to win the championship. And I’m sticking to my original prediction of the winning score being over par.
Jeff Ritter, SI Golf Managing Director: FICTION. Even par may be good for a $2 million payday … but that’s a runner-up check this week. Oddsmakers had the pre-tournament winning-score over/under at 1.5 under par and after one soft-ish day I think that number is tracking well. 2 under gets it done this week.
Michael Rosenberg, SI Senior Writer: FICTION. Going back to 2014, every Open champion finished under par except one: Brooks Koepka at Shinnecock Hills in 2018. Koepka finished 1 over, and that was the year the USGA lost its mind on Saturday, forcing leaders to play an impossible course. (This was when Phil Mickelson protested by intentionally hitting his own ball while it was still moving.) Oakmont is really tough, but it’s an honest tough, not a gimmicky tough, and rain this weekend will soften the greens. Unless the USGA overdoes it again (always possible!), even par will not get it done.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Fact or Fiction: An Even-Par Total Will Be Enough to Win This U.S. Open.
