If an election had occurred last weekend opinion polls suggest Labor would have struggled to win the two-party-preferred vote. Voters have rated last week's federal budget as the worst since Paul Keating's "L.A.W." tax cuts backflip in 1993.
Such an outcome would require a marriage of convenience between the Coalition and One Nation, an alliance Opposition Leader Angus Taylor has carefully avoided ruling out.
The detail of where these burgeoning conservative votes originate matters however. The Coalition has seemingly abandoned hope of reclaiming seats from the teals following its shift to the right, meaning the combined 47 per cent Liberal, National and One Nation vote may not translate into a large number of seats.
Polls confirm the budget has gone down like a lead balloon with one finding Mr Taylor now leads Anthony Albanese as preferred prime minister, 33 per cent to 30 per cent (with a massive 37 per cent of voters undecided).
While such findings demand a large grain of salt it can't be ruled out they represent a significant shift in the political zeitgeist.
Labor claims it is a courageous government taking principled decisions in the public interest that voters will vindicate at the ballot box in 2028.
Conversely, the conservative parties have labelled the budget a monumental breach of trust that leaves millions worse off and fails to address the intergenerational equity issue.
Labor is having difficulties selling its complex changes to trusts and capital gains tax; measures many view as a death duty by stealth.
A misreading of demographics has compounded the government's problems. It appears to have underestimated how quickly younger voters would realise they were losing access to the same wealth-building mechanisms used by their parents.
Labor also failed to acknowledge the ageing of the Baby Boomers is driving the largest intergenerational wealth transfer in Australian history. Many Generation Z voters, who have banked on a healthy inheritance, face the unwelcome prospect of sharing it with the government.
Furthermore, once a renter becomes a homeowner, their outlook changes. Renters want property prices to fall; homeowners want them to rise. Roughly 50 per cent of Australians in the 20 to 45-year-old cohort already own their homes. In the 35 to 44-year-old segment, 60 per cent own their homes - not far short of the overall national ownership rate of 66 per cent.
Just as Mark Twain once noted about reports of his own death, claims of intergenerational wealth inequity may be "greatly exaggerated."
The most important takeaway from the post-budget debate is the emergence of a clear ideological divide between the Coalition and Labor for the first time since the 2007 election.
While the policy gap between the Coalition and One Nation has narrowed significantly, the Liberals and Nationals retain the advantage of being traditional parties of government.
The idea of a One Nation government led by Pauline Hanson remains risible. The minor party holds only two lower house seats; even if it picks up a swag of electorates in 2028, it lacks the experienced personnel to form a credible cabinet.
By aggressively pushing tax changes voters already rejected at the 2016 and 2019 elections, Labor has handed the Coalition its best opening in years.
It remains to be seen whether Mr Taylor and Mr Canavan can capitalise on this opportunity, or if the Coalition will once again shoot itself in the foot.
