The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation projects the water level at Nevada's Lake Mead will hit a record low of 1,041.05 feet within two years, reports Newsweek. Activists warn that steps must be taken now to avert a catastrophe.
The largest U.S. reservoir and biggest human-made lake in the world sits at the junction between Nevada, Utah and Arizona. It is now on course to fall to a record low by May 2027, bringing the water level within 150 feet of the dreaded dead pool scenario. The 895-foot point-of-no-return would stop the flow of water through the dam entirely, shutting off a major source of Western survival.
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The Rocky Mountain snowpack stood at just 63% of average in April, according to the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center, continuing a decades-long Western drought. The mid-continent range supplies about 85% of total water flow in the Colorado River. The meager trickle into the summer months has dropped Lake Mead to just 1,054.33 feet, or 31% of capacity, according to the U.S. Department of the Interior.
The 1,450-mile Colorado River Basin supplies water to more than 40 million people in the West, while meeting almost all of Las Vegas's needs. It also irrigates more than 4 million acres of farmland in neighboring states, as well as New Mexico, Wyoming and 39 tribal nations. These are collectively known as the Basin States and, without a continuous supply of water and electricity, this part of the country could turn into a depopulated wasteland.
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Newsweek says the Lower Basin already faces numerous municipal and state regulations. Agriculture accounts for about 80% of Lake Mead demand and is under the constant threat of serious cutbacks. This might be surprising to outsiders, given explosive population growth in the Las Vegas metro since the 1990s.
"Agriculture is the reliable water bank,” Great Basin Water Network Executive Director Kyle Roerink told Newsweek. “So farmers should begin planning accordingly.”
According to the Colorado River Water Users Association, Lake Mead's Hoover Dam and Lake Powell's Glen Canyon Dam, along with small dams along the river, generate more than 6 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity, meeting the needs of more than 2.5 million people. But Lake Mead now produces just half the power it did in 2000. The 950-foot breaking point for power generation is higher than downstream water flow but a drop to 1,035 feet will force older turbines to shut down, cutting electric output by another 70%.
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Roerink warns a razor-sharp focus on water use containment is needed to avoid the unthinkable. Declining downstream use needs to be curtailed even further in his view, he told Newsweek, while less-regulated upstream use should be reduced in a "predictable way, which is currently not the case and a point of contention.”
Talks are underway to replace Lake Mead's 12 older hydroelectric turbines, according to Circle of Blue, allowing the Bureau of Reclamation to buy time before newer ones at lower levels stop working as well. The estimated $156 million price tag seems like a drop in the bucket compared to the alternative but time is critical.
The agency is performing a cost-benefit analysis and timeline for installation. However, it warned that ordering new turbines is "a lengthy process as they have to be designed, model tested, built and ultimately installed."
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