Although two major pollsters – Axis My India and Today’s Chanakya – are scheduled to post the results of their exit polls tomorrow, the others have predicted an overwhelming majority for the governing NDA.
The competition this year is chiefly between the JD-U-BJP-LJP alliance that makes up the NDA and the RJD-Congress-CPIML-VIP alliance that forms the MGB, with political upstart Prashant Kishore’s Jan Suraaj Party hovering in the background.
Bihar’s assembly has 243 seats. A simple majority is 122 seats.
On the NDA side, the JD(U) and BJP had contested 101 seats each, while the Chirag Paswan-led LJP had contested 29 seats. Meanwhile, smaller parties in this alliance, including the Upendra Kushwaha-led Rashtriya Lok Morcha and former CM Jitan Ram Manjhi-led Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular), contested six seats each. On the MGB side, which has been mired in contestations over seat-sharing arrangements, the RJD contested 143 seats, the INC contested 61 seats, while the CPI(M-L) fielded 20 candidates, and the Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) put up 15 candidates.
Voting in the Bihar elections concluded today at 6 pm, with a turnout of 67.14 percent in the second phase. In the first phase, voter turnout was a significant 64.66 percent.
What the exit polls say
Chanakya Strategies predicted 130-138 seats for the NDA, 100-108 for the MGB, and three to five for other parties. Dainik Bhaskar predicted 145-160 for the NDA, 73-91 for the MGB, 0-3 for the JSP and 5-7 for others. JVC predicted 135-150 seats to the NDA, 88-103 to the MGB, and 3-7 to others. Matrize predicted 147-167 seats for the NDA, 70-90 for the MGB, 5 for the JSP, and 10 for others. P-Marq predicted 142-162 seats to the NDA, 80-98 to the MGB, 1-4 to the JSP, and 0-3 to others. People’s Pulse predicted 133–159 to the NDA, 75-101 to the MGB, 0-5 to the JSP, and 2-8 to others.
Poll Diary predicted 184-209 for the NDA, 32-49 for the MGB, and 1-5 for others. People's Insight predicted 133-148 to the NDA, 87-102 to the MGB, 0-2 to the JSP, and 3-6 to others. Polstrat predicted 133-148 seats for the NDA, 87-102 for the MGB, and 3-5 for others. DV Research predicted 137–152 seats to the NDA, 83-98 to the MGB, 2-4 to the JSP, and 1-8 to others. TIF Research predicted 145–163 seats for the NDA, 76-95 to the MGB, 0 to the JSP and 3-6 to others.
The Opposition MGB’s campaign began with much fanfare. Rahul Gandhi, Congress MP and the Leader of Opposition in the Lok Sabha, led a fortnight-long “Vote Adhikar Yatra” and was joined by the RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav, their candidate for chief minister. But the exit polls so far seem to suggest that momentum was lost and that the “Jungle Raj” narrative may have turned out to be a hurdle for the RJD. Exit pollsters seem to suggest that Nitish Kumar’s sops for voters, including the Mukhyamantri Mahila Rojgar Yojana, which aims to provide Rs 10,000 to a woman from every family as seed money to start a business, may have helped his cause.
Again, let’s emphasise that exit polls are temperamental beasts. Nonetheless, it’s good to keep these numbers in mind as we prepare for results day (and to check how many of them go wrong).
And since we’ve covered you through the polls with our reportage, we’ve got you covered on results day too. Join us for a live decoding of the results as they appear, with Manisha Pande, Atul Chaurasia and our team of reporters. Set your clocks for 12.30 pm on November 14 and join us on our YouTube channel.
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