Examining recent fantasy football ADP data

Every fantasy football draft season creates what is known as “average draft position” data (ADP), which gamers can utilize to help find trends and get a feel for current valuation tendencies.

It’s a fair way for novice players to relate positional value and also contrast how other drafters perceive worth vs. other positions. That said, it’s easy to get caught up in the numbers and fixate too much on them.

Don’t become enamored with the raw data, especially if you’re unable to validate the source material. For example, mock drafters may not be as likely to put forth earnest effort and/or could be willing to take wild risks in relation to making picks when that actually count for something.

Utilizing ADP data as guidelines is fine, but getting wrapped up in strictly adhering to them will get you in trouble. It’s always a positive to know whereabouts players tend to get selected within a few rounds’ margin or to develop a feel for positional runs — such as how many of the safe QB1s or No. 1 tight ends go in the first eight rounds, on average. ADP never should be treated as the be all, end all.

With that out of the way, here’s commentary from the most recent ADP chart from FantasyFootballCalculator.com. The data used comes from 12-team, PPR drafts between July 16 to July 26, covering 10,360 mocks.

Ovr	Pos rk	Pick	Name	Pos	Team	Bye	Comments
1	1	1.01	Jonathan Taylor	RB	IND	14
2	2	1.03	Christian McCaffrey	RB	CAR	13	Too rich for my blood … In PPR, I’d take Kupp as the safest non-Taylor selection.
3	3	1.04	Derrick Henry	RB	TEN	6
4	1	1.04	Cooper Kupp	WR	LAR	7
5	4	1.04	Austin Ekeler	RB	LAC	8
6	2	1.05	Justin Jefferson	WR	MIN	7
7	5	1.07	Najee Harris	RB	PIT	9
8	6	1.08	Dalvin Cook	RB	MIN	7
9	3	1.09	Ja’Marr Chase	WR	CIN	10
10	4	1.10	Davante Adams	WR	LV	6
11	7	1.11	D’Andre Swift	RB	DET	6
12	8	1.12	Joe Mixon	RB	CIN	10
13	5	2.01	Stefon Diggs	WR	BUF	7
14	9	2.02	Nick Chubb	RB	CLE	9
15	1	2.03	Travis Kelce	TE	KC	8
16	10	2.04	Aaron Jones	RB	GB	14
17	6	2.04	CeeDee Lamb	WR	DAL	9	Undervalued? Lamb legitimately could finish in the top 8-10 overall.
18	11	2.06	Alvin Kamara	RB	NO	14	Could be a steal if the league doesn’t come down too hard on him via suspension
19	7	2.06	Deebo Samuel	WR	SF	9	New QB, contract dispute, unlikely to run as much … overvalued?
20	12	2.07	Javonte Williams	RB	DEN	9
21	13	2.08	Saquon Barkley	RB	NYG	9
22	1	2.09	Josh Allen	QB	BUF	7	Don’t draft any QB this early in conventional scoring systems/league structures.
23	8	2.10	Tyreek Hill	WR	MIA	11
24	9	2.10	Mike Evans	WR	TB	11	Among the safest WR1 targets in the game today and a value as WR9
25	2	2.12	Mark Andrews	TE	BAL	10
26	14	3.01	Leonard Fournette	RB	TB	11
27	15	3.02	Ezekiel Elliott	RB	DAL	9	RB15 in PPR is an interesting proposition after finishing RB7 in a “down” year.
28	10	3.03	Keenan Allen	WR	LAC	8
29	16	3.04	David Montgomery	RB	CHI	14	Could be slightly overvalued in the new system. At risk of losing serious volume.
30	11	3.05	A.J. Brown	WR	PHI	7	This is about as early as I’m comfortable investing in him.
31	12	3.06	Tee Higgins	WR	CIN	10
32	2	3.06	Justin Herbert	QB	LAC	8
33	17	3.08	J.K. Dobbins	RB	BAL	10	Pay close attention to his status during the next few weeks before investing.
34	18	3.09	James Conner	RB	ARI	13	TD-dependent but lacks much competition
35	13	3.09	Michael Pittman Jr.	WR	IND	14	Could break out as a top-8 WR
36	3	3.10	Patrick Mahomes	QB	KC	8
37	19	3.11	Antonio Gibson	RB	WAS	14
38	3	4.01	George Kittle	TE	SF	9
39	4	4.01	Kyle Pitts	TE	ATL	14
40	14	4.02	D.K. Metcalf	WR	SEA	11
41	20	4.03	Cam Akers	RB	LAR	7	Strong value buy
42	15	4.04	Diontae Johnson	WR	PIT	9	Overvalued? Dependent on volume and has shaky QB situation
43	21	4.05	Elijah Mitchell	RB	SF	9	Too risky for this placement. Committee approach, injury concerns, running QB. No thanks.
44	16	4.06	Terry McLaurin	WR	WAS	14
45	22	4.06	Josh Jacobs	RB	LV	6	Extreme volatility; TD-reliant, injury-prone. RBBC history from new regime is a concern
46	23	4.08	Travis Etienne	RB	JAX	11
47	17	4.09	Jaylen Waddle	WR	MIA	11
48	5	4.10	Darren Waller	TE	LV	6
49	18	4.11	D.J. Moore	WR	CAR	13
50	4	4.12	Joe Burrow	QB	CIN	10
51	19	4.12	DeAndre Hopkins	WR	ARI	13	Going earlier in casual leagues due to name recognition. Becomes a value after Round 6.
52	5	5.01	Lamar Jackson	QB	BAL	10	Will need to maximize his rushing skills and aerial efficiency with one of the weakest WR corps
53	24	5.04	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	RB	KC	8
54	25	5.04	Damien Harris	RB	NE	10	A value or another TD-dependent committee back? Hard to say with no true OC
55	20	5.05	Michael Thomas	WR	NO	14	Should be able to live up to this placement with 15-plus healthy appearances
56	21	5.05	Chris Godwin	WR	TB	11	Overvalued while working back from ACL tear suffered in Week 15
57	26	5.07	A.J. Dillon	RB	GB	14
58	22	5.07	Brandin Cooks	WR	HOU	6	Sound value with ascending quarterback and limited weapons to steal targets
59	23	5.08	Mike Williams	WR	LAC	8	Probably maxed out his ceiling last year
60	27	5.09	Breece Hall	RB	NYJ	10	Overvalued in a committee-based system, despite being a superior talent to Michael Carter
61	28	5.10	Miles Sanders	RB	PHI	7	Safe bet for a solid rebound, especially if passing game picks up as expected
62	6	5.11	Kyler Murray	QB	ARI	13
63	24	5.11	Adam Thielen	WR	MIN	7
64	6	5.12	T.J. Hockenson	TE	DET	6	Make-or-break season; needs to stay healthy and improve his efficiency to meet this valuation
65	25	6.04	Hunter Renfrow	WR	LV	6	Just how many passes can one expect with Davante Adams and Darren Waller atop the pecking order?
66	26	6.04	Amari Cooper	WR	CLE	9
67	7	6.04	Jalen Hurts	QB	PHI	7
68	27	6.06	Allen Robinson	WR	LAR	7	No OBJ and unproven receiving depth should lead to a rebound as a WR2.
69	29	6.07	Kareem Hunt	RB	CLE	9
70	30	6.08	Rashaad Penny	RB	SEA	11	Chris Carson’s retirement firmly entrenches Penny as the RB1a … until he gets hurt yet again.
71	31	6.08	Tony Pollard	RB	DAL	9	Will he have as large of a role again if Zeke stays healthy? Probably can meet this placement via receptions.
72	28	6.09	Jerry Jeudy	WR	DEN	9	Another make-or-break candidate with no excuse if he doesn’t step up
73	29	6.09	Darnell Mooney	WR	CHI	14	Ready for another leap? Seems improbable, but he’s a strong No. 2 on a team without a true WR1.
74	7	6.12	Dalton Schultz	TE	DAL	9	Strong value in PPR and likely to finish as Dallas’ No. 2 option
75	8	6.12	Aaron Rodgers	QB	GB	14	Far too early to draft him, but this entire ADP chart is full of QBs going too soon.
76	30	7.01	Marquise Brown	WR	ARI	13	Is it far-fetched to think he actually could remain the top target when DeAndre Hopkins returns?
77	31	7.02	Courtland Sutton	WR	DEN	9	Tremendous value with Russell Wilson steering the ship. Completely healthy after 2020 ACL tear.
78	9	7.03	Matthew Stafford	QB	LAR	7
79	32	7.03	Devin Singletary	RB	BUF	7
80	33	7.06	James Robinson	RB	JAX	11	Keep tabs on his workload over the next month before trusting he’ll return to form.
81	32	7.06	DeVonta Smith	WR	PHI	7
82	8	7.07	Dallas Goedert	TE	PHI	7	Will NFL’s top rushing offense dramatically pivot to a pass-heavy script and sustain three strong targets?
83	33	7.09	Gabriel Davis	WR	BUF	7	Poised for a true breakout, but his role and skill set suggest inconsistency from week to week.
84	10	7.10	Dak Prescott	QB	DAL	9
85	9	7.11	Dawson Knox	TE	BUF	7	Overvalued … too dependent on touchdowns and shouldn’t see a significant upgrade in targets
86	11	7.12	Russell Wilson	QB	DEN	9	Rock-solid value going even this early … tends to go two rounds later in advanced leagues
87	34	7.12	Elijah Moore	WR	NYJ	10	Intriguing risk-reward decision in an offense that has seen serious investment in personnel upgrades
88	34	8.01	Chase Edmonds	RB	MIA	11	Interesting value here in PPR but may struggle to hold up to a large workload as well as fend off competition
89	35	8.01	Melvin Gordon	RB	DEN	9
90	35	8.04	Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR	DET	6	Investment in WRs, plus healthy D’Andre Swift and T.J. Hockenson will cut into his targets
91	36	8.06	Kenneth Walker III	RB	SEA	11	Carson’s retirement solidifies Walker as no worse than an RB4 with plenty of upside.
92	36	8.06	Robert Woods	WR	TEN	6	Age-30 season coming off a torn ACL and entering a run-first system … underwhelming.
93	37	8.06	Cordarrelle Patterson	WR	ATL	14	Should come back to Earth after breaking out at 30 years old in a new position
94	12	8.06	Tom Brady	QB	TB	11	Should move up a few spots with Julio Jones’ signing, but it’s not a sure thing to move the needle.
95	38	8.08	Rashod Bateman	WR	BAL	10	Showed enough in limited action as a rookie to believe this placement is criminally low
96	37	8.09	Alexander Mattison	RB	MIN	7	Among the best backups to target/handcuffs to secure
97	38	8.09	Michael Carter	RB	NYJ	10	Starting to gain steam in relation to Breece Hall’s ADP
98	39	8.10	JuJu Smith-Schuster	WR	KC	8	Comes down to staying healthy after a season-ending shoulder injury in 2021, his 2nd lost season in 3 years
99	39	8.11	Rhamondre Stevenson	RB	NE	10
100	40	9.03	James Cook	RB	BUF	7	Don’t get too excited — no real threat to take Devin Singletary’s job and may be a gimmick-play receiving back
101	40	9.04	Brandon Aiyuk	WR	SF	9
102	41	9.05	Tyler Lockett	WR	SEA	11	Profit potential is tough to ignore at this ADP, regardless of QB situation
103	13	9.05	Derek Carr	QB	LV	6
104	41	9.06	Ronald Jones II	RB	KC	8	Will be an interesting RB3/flex option if CEH struggles once again
105	42	9.06	Darrell Henderson	RB	LAR	7
106	10	9.08	Pat Freiermuth	TE	PIT	9	Might be the safest receiving outlet in the Steel City not named Najee
107	11	9.09	Zach Ertz	TE	ARI	13
108	42	9.09	Chase Claypool	WR	PIT	9
109	14	9.10	Trey Lance	QB	SF	9	Has the weapons and rushing chops to shine as a QB1, but the OL is a question mark
110	43	9.11	Russell Gage	WR	TB	11	Shouldn’t be too affected by Julio signing — different roles
111	43	9.11	Nyheim Hines	RB	IND	14
112	44	10.01	Michael Gallup	WR	DAL	9	Grossly overvalued due to injury timeline
113	45	10.03	Christian Kirk	WR	JAX	11
114	44	10.04	J.D. McKissic	RB	WAS	14
115	45	10.04	Raheem Mostert	RB	MIA	11	Has the advantage of knowing the system but has been failed by his own body
116	1	10.05	Buffalo Defense	DEF	BUF	7	Don’t draft defenses in Round 10. Ever.
117	12	10.05	Mike Gesicki	TE	MIA	11
118	46	10.07	Kadarius Toney	WR	NYG	9	Offers the most upside of all receivers on the roster and is a value at this stage
##	46	10.07	Chris Carson	RB	SEA	11	Retired and will fall out of the ADP charts soon
120	47	10.08	Dameon Pierce	RB	HOU	6	Quality target this late — hardly used at Florida but is more versatile than Marlon Mack
121	48	10.08	Marlon Mack	RB	HOU	6	Training camp & preseason will determine whether how much see Pierce before Mack inevitably gets injured.
122	47	10.08	Allen Lazard	WR	GB	14	Among the best breakout candidates coming at a WR4 price tag
123	15	10.09	Kirk Cousins	QB	MIN	7	Unsexy pick but strong backup who has produced as a low-end QB1 more often than not
124	48	10.11	Drake London	WR	ATL	14	Hard to get excited about anyone catching passes from Marcus Mariota
125	49	11.02	Mark Ingram	RB	NO	14
126	50	11.03	Chuba Hubbard	RB	CAR	13	Will he fend off D’Onta Foreman to back up CMC?
127	2	11.04	LA Rams Defense	DEF	LAR	7
128	51	11.05	Isaiah Spiller	RB	LAC	8	Should be on everyone’s short list when looking for a late-round flier; mandatory handcuff to Austin Ekeler
129	49	11.05	Jarvis Landry	WR	NO	14	Volume needed, but will it be there?
130	3	11.07	Tampa Bay Defense	DEF	TB	11
131	50	11.08	Treylon Burks	WR	TEN	6	Needs a close watch over the next month after missing nearly all of OTAs.
132	52	11.09	Tyler Allgeier	RB	ATL	14	Stands a strong chance to break through as an RB3 or flex in non-PPR; fourth back in PPR
133	51	11.09	Calvin Ridley	WR	ATL	14	Gamers are gambling on his suspension being reduced
134	16	11.10	Deshaun Watson	QB	CLE	9	Suspension looming, which dictates his entire value
135	52	11.10	Chris Olave	WR	NO	14	Probably won’t matter if Michael Thomas, Landry and Kamara are healthy
136	53	11.11	DeVante Parker	WR	NE	10	Strong value option this late
137	53	12.01	Jamaal Williams	RB	DET	6
138	17	12.01	Tua Tagovailoa	QB	MIA	11	Has all of the weapons and the system in place to break out
139	13	12.02	Hunter Henry	TE	NE	10
140	54	12.02	Kenneth Gainwell	RB	PHI	7
141	18	12.03	Justin Fields	QB	CHI	14
142	54	12.03	Christian Watson	WR	GB	14	Can he develop fast enough and remain consistent enough to earn Aaron Rodgers’ trust?
143	55	12.04	Tyler Boyd	WR	CIN	10
144	4	12.05	Indianapolis Defense	DEF	IND	14	Coordinator change could lead to regression in big plays
145	55	12.05	Darrel Williams	RB	ARI	13	Handcuff to James Conner
146	56	12.06	Rachaad White	RB	TB	11
147	1	12.06	Justin Tucker	PK	BAL	10	Don’t draft kickers in Round 12. Ever.
148	14	12.07	Cole Kmet	TE	CHI	14	Breakout candidate written all over him
149	56	12.08	Skyy Moore	WR	KC	8	Will need a strong camp and/or a few breaks to shine, but the talent is obvious
150	15	12.09	Logan Thomas	TE	WAS	14	Avoid him like your fantasy life depends on it
151	19	12.09	Davis Mills	QB	HOU	6
152	57	12.09	Sony Michel	RB	MIA	11	Purely a flier in a crowded backfield
153	2	12.10	Tyler Bass	PK	BUF	7
154	5	12.11	San Francisco Defense	DEF	SF	9
155	20	12.11	Matt Ryan	QB	IND	14
156	3	12.12	Daniel Carlson	PK	LV	6
157	57	13.01	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	WR	KC	8	Could emerge as one of the best free-agent additions of a crowded WR class
158	58	13.01	Gus Edwards	RB	BAL	10
159	4	13.02	Harrison Butker	PK	KC	8
160	6	13.03	New Orleans Defense	DEF	NO	14
161	5	13.04	Ryan Succop	PK	TB	11
162	59	13.06	Matt Breida	RB	NYG	9
163	16	13.06	Robert Tonyan Jr.	TE	GB	14	Has a chance for late-season success if the knee gets right
164	6	13.07	Rodrigo Blankenship	PK	IND	14	Rebound ahead after a lost year
165	7	13.07	Pittsburgh Defense	DEF	PIT	9
166	7	13.07	Younghoe Koo	PK	ATL	14
167	17	13.07	Austin Hooper	TE	TEN	6	Magnificent value for a flier TE who has proven to be a top-10 guy more than once
168	8	13.09	LA Chargers Defense	DEF	LAC	8	Legit upgrades in the offseason should see defensive-minded head coach get more creative
169	60	13.09	Trey Sermon	RB	SF	9
170	9	13.09	Minnesota Defense	DEF	MIN	7
171	18	13.09	Kyle Rudolph	TE	TB	11	Was brought in for his blocking skills and shouldn’t be on your radar
172	8	13.10	Nick Folk	PK	NE	10
173	58	13.10	Mecole Hardman	WR	KC	8	Someone has to emerge from this hodgepodge WR room, so why can’t it be the incumbent?
174	9	13.10	Matt Gay	PK	LAR	7
175	10	13.10	Detroit Defense	DEF	DET	6
176	21	13.10	Jared Goff	QB	DET	6
177	19	13.11	Irv Smith Jr.	TE	MIN	7	Nifty TE2 flier with TE1 potential some weeks
178	11	13.11	Washington Defense	DEF	WAS	14
179	20	13.11	Mo Alie-Cox	TE	IND	14
180	22	13.12	Trevor Lawrence	QB	JAX	11	It’s statistically impossible to be as bad as he was last year once more
181	61	13.12	Tyrion Davis-Price	RB	SF	9
182	21	13.12	Noah Fant	TE	SEA	11	Tremendous value given the shaky QB situation and attention paid to top WRs
183	59	14.01	A.J. Green	WR	ARI	13
184	12	14.01	Dallas Defense	DEF	DAL	9
185	60	14.01	D.J. Chark	WR	DET	6
186	61	14.01	Jakobi Meyers	WR	NE	10	Safe, quality roster depth in PPR
187	10	14.02	Greg Joseph	PK	MIN	7
188	23	14.03	Jameis Winston	QB	NO	14	If healthy, could surprise and challenge low-end QB1 status
189	62	14.03	Kenyan Drake	RB	LV	6	Will find a role once the ankle is 100 percent
190	11	14.03	Graham Gano	PK	CAR	13
191	63	14.03	D’Onta Foreman	RB	CAR	13	Breathed some life back into his career last season and could win RB2 chores behind fragile starter
192	13	14.03	New England Defense	DEF	NE	10
193	62	14.03	Tim Patrick	WR	DEN	9
194	24	14.04	Mac Jones	QB	NE	10
195	64	14.04	Jerick McKinnon	RB	KC	8
196	63	14.04	Alec Pierce	WR	IND	14	Intriguing deep threat, but will this offense pass enough to make him worthy of a roster spot?
197	22	14.04	Albert Okwuegbunam	TE	DEN	9
198	23	14.04	Gerald Everett	TE	LAC	8
199	64	14.05	Rondale Moore	WR	ARI	13	Has the electricity to warm a bench spot for a few weeks to find out if he’s worth the risk
200	24	14.05	Tyler Higbee	TE	LAR	7
201	65	14.05	Garrett Wilson	WR	NYJ	10
202	66	14.05	Kenny Golladay	WR	NYG	9	It’s tough to reconcile this placement … Draft him as a WR5 and you won’t regret it.
203	25	14.05	Evan Engram	TE	JAX	11	Ready to return to his early glory days
204	65	14.05	Jeffery Wilson	RB	SF	9
205	67	14.06	Van Jefferson	WR	LAR	7
206	26	14.06	David Njoku	TE	CLE	9	Quality value with all that is this receiving corps and QB situation
207	27	14.07	Hayden Hurst	TE	CIN	10
208	14	14.07	Baltimore Defense	DEF	BAL	10
209	15	14.07	Green Bay Defense	DEF	GB	14
210	16	14.08	Arizona Defense	DEF	ARI	13
211	28	14.08	Cameron Brate	TE	TB	11	Most viable option among TB’s TEs
212	17	14.08	Philadelphia Defense	DEF	PHI	7	Ready to bounce back after influx of talent
213	12	14.08	Brandon McManus	PK	DEN	9
214	25	14.08	Mitch Trubisky	QB	PIT	9	Sneaky flier in best-ball
215	18	14.09	Kansas City Defense	DEF	KC	8
216	66	14.09	Myles Gaskin	RB	MIA	11
217	26	14.09	Zach Wilson	QB	NYJ	10	Do we see the true gunslinger in him this year?
218	68	14.09	Jameson Williams	WR	DET	6	Probably not worthy of a fantasy roster spot, but stranger things have happened
219	67	14.09	Samaje Perine	RB	CIN	10
220	68	14.09	Zamir White	RB	LV	6
221	69	14.09	Brian Robinson Jr.	RB	WAS	14	Handcuff to Antonio Gibson
222	13	14.09	Jake Elliott	PK	PHI	7
223	14	14.09	Jason Sanders	PK	MIA	11
224	15	14.10	Lirim Hajrullahu	PK	DAL	9
225	69	14.10	Corey Davis	WR	NYJ	10
226	70	14.11	Nico Collins	WR	HOU	6	A slightly better flier with John Metchie out
227	71	14.12	Jamison Crowder	WR	BUF	7	Should assume Cole Beasley’s spot as a safety blanket — volume tied to how much Gabe Davis breaks out
228	72	14.12	Jahan Dotson	WR	WAS	14
229	73	15.01	George Pickens	WR	PIT	9
230	70	15.01	Boston Scott	RB	PHI	7
231	74	15.01	Jalen Tolbert	WR	DAL	9	Awesome profit potential in what’s a ragtag group behind Lamb
232	27	15.01	Baker Mayfield	QB	CAR	13	Has the weapons if he can cut down on the turnovers
233	19	15.02	Miami Defense	DEF	MIA	11
234	16	15.02	Cade York	PK	CLE	9
235	17	15.02	Wil Lutz	PK	NO	14
236	28	15.02	Ryan Tannehill	QB	TEN	6
237	20	15.02	Cleveland Defense	DEF	CLE	9
238	71	15.02	James White	RB	NE	10
239	21	15.02	Denver Defense	DEF	DEN	9
240	18	15.03	Chris Boswell	PK	PIT	9
241	19	15.03	Matt Prater	PK	ARI	13
242	75	15.04	Marvin Jones	WR	JAX	11	Another unsexy selection who could return a decent profit
243	72	15.05	D’Ernest Johnson	RB	CLE	9
244	76	15.05	Sammy Watkins	WR	GB	14
245	73	15.05	Rex Burkhead	RB	HOU	6
246	22	15.06	Carolina Defense	DEF	CAR	13
247	23	15.07	Tennessee Defense	DEF	TEN	6
248	74	15.08	Mike Davis	RB	BAL	10
249	75	15.08	Damien Williams	RB	ATL	14
250	20	15.09	Robbie Gould	PK	SF	9
251	21	15.10	Dustin Hopkins	PK	LAC	8
252	77	15.10	Robby Anderson	WR	CAR	13	Criminally low, especially if Mayfield secures starting job
253	22	15.12	Mason Crosby	PK	GB	14
254	76	16.01	Giovani Bernard	RB	TB	11
255	23	16.04	Cameron Dicker	PK	LAR	7