Bill Belichick's debut season leading the North Carolina football program has been a wild roller-coaster ride that has little to do with the actual play on the field.
From the day he was hired in Chapel Hill last December, rumors swirled about Belichick's desire to return to the NFL in order to chase Don Shula's record for most career wins as a head coach. It only got worse from there, as Belichick and his 24-year-old girlfriend Jordon Hudson made plenty of headlines—including the latest revelation Friday by Pablo Torre—and rumors started piling up that Belichick and North Carolina were looking to split ways, which both parties denied.
On the actual field, it hasn't been pretty. The Tar Heels began their season by driving 83 yards down the field for a touchdown against TCU—only to end up losing 48–14. It's all been downhill from there. Along with the blowout loss to TCU, North Carolina also got smacked by UCF and Clemson, and only has wins over lowly Charlotte and Richmond to show for itself through six games.
North Carolina hung tough with Cal on Friday night at California Memorial Stadium and were actually less than one yard away from taking the lead in crunch time. With just under four minutes to play, Tar Heels wide receiver Nathan Leacock was stripped of the football as he fell into the end zone, handing the ball back to Cal, which closed out a 21–18 win several minutes later.
North Carolina, WELCOME TO PAC 12 AFTER DARK! pic.twitter.com/I3Gkt4aetu
— Im not a fan of your favorite team (@fsh733) October 18, 2025
With UNC now 2–4, is it too late for Belichick to save the season? In order to be bowl eligible and reach six victories, North Carolina needs to win four of its final six games. Entering Friday's game, ESPN's FPI gave the Tar Heels just a 4.7% chance to reach six wins on the year.
Not all hope is lost, however. The Tar Heels have the second-easiest strength of schedule remaining in the ACC and the 69th-ranked SOS overall among all FBS programs. They'll have to get hot, but it's not out of the question.
North Carolina's 2025 schedule
Let's break down the rest of the schedule:
Saturday, Oct. 25: vs. No. 18 Virginia (5–1)
The only ranked game left on North Carolina's schedule, No. 18 Virginia is a win over Washington State on Saturday away from its best start to a season since 2007. The Cavaliers rank third in the ACC in rushing, gaining 217.5 yards on the ground per game thanks to a talented group of backs led by J'Mari Taylor.
Virginia's 30–27 overtime win over Louisville on Oct. 4 looks even better now that the Cardinals knocked off No. 2 Miami on Friday night.
Win or loss? Loss.
Friday, Oct. 31: at Syracuse (3–3)
We've seen two different Syracuse teams this year: One with quarterback Steve Angeli, and one without. Unfortunately, the Orange will be playing without the junior signal-caller the rest of the season after he tore his Achilles in the 34-21 win over Clemson.
Syracuse has yet to find an answer on offense with backup sophomore quarterback Rickie Collins under center, scoring a total of 21 points in back-to-back losses to Duke and SMU. Perhaps offensive coordinator Jeff Nixon will crack the code by Halloween, but for now, we like North Carolina's chances.
Win or loss? Win.
Saturday, Nov. 8: vs. Stanford (2–4)
Stanford opened the season with a loss to Hawaii on a last-second field goal, then lost to BYU (now ranked), Virginia (now ranked) and SMU (last year's ACC runner-up). That 2–4 record will probably look even worse by early November with the Cardinal's looming matchups against Florida State, Miami and Pittsburgh leading up to the clash at Kenan Memorial Stadium.
Stanford doesn't have much to offer offensively outside of senior receiver CJ Williams. Andrew Luck might be the Cardinal's general manager these days in Silicon Valley, but even he ain't walking through that door.
Win or loss? Win.
Saturday, Nov. 15: at Wake Forest (4–2)
Wake Forest is 4–2 and could've been 5–1 with a win over No. 12 Georgia Tech had the Demon Deacons converted a two-point conversion in overtime. Wake's defense ranks second in the ACC against the pass (181.3 yards per game) and third in points allowed (20.0). That seems like it'll be a problem for North Carolina's sputtering offense.
Win or loss? Loss.
Saturday, Nov. 22: vs. Duke (4–2)
Tulane transfer quarterback Darian Mensah has been a revelation for Duke this season, throwing for 1,838 yards, 15 touchdowns and just two interceptions in six games. He's got the offense humming, as the Blue Devils have scored at least 38 points over the last three contests.
The Tar Heels haven't proved they can keep up with that amount of scoring this season.
Win or loss? Loss.
Saturday, Nov. 29: at NC State (4–3)
The Tar Heels will wrap up the first (... and possibly, only?) season of the Belichick era with their annual in-state rivalry matchup against NC State. The Wolfpack, who have won four straight games in the rivalry, currently look like the better team, but Belichick has a few weeks to get his team prepared. And hopefully no flags will be planted after the game this year.
Win or loss? Win.
Final tally
The game-by-game prediction above has North Carolina finishing 5–7—one win shy of being bowl eligible. Nobody expected Belichick to enter the college ranks and win a national championship in his first season at the helm, but missing out on a bowl game appearance would be a big disappointment—especially considering the Tar Heels made six straight bowl games under coach Mack Brown from 2019 to '24.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Can Bill Belichick, North Carolina Still Make Bowl Game After Loss to Cal?.
