The world’s most profitable economists are making millions predicting economic collapse for banks—but they’re shut out of the rooms where policy gets made. Gary Stevenson, a former trader at Citibank, says this disconnect is why governments keep getting blindsided by crises they should see coming.
Speaking on his "Gary’s Economics" YouTube channel, the former derivatives trader–turned–activist economist revealed the stark divide between Wall Street’s elite forecasters and the “third division economists” advising governments. His message is blunt: the people who actually understand the economy are betting against it instead of fixing it.
The Trading Floor’s Secret Weapon: Wealth Inequality
Stevenson credits his trading success to recognizing one factor that mainstream economists ignore: growing wealth inequality drives every major economic shift. While traditional economists focus on complex mathematical models, successful traders understand that tracking wealth distribution can predict market moves with startling accuracy.
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“To be a very good trader from an economic analysis perspective, you must identify something very important that is not being understood by the majority of economists and traders,” Stevenson said. “All the money I have made trading is based on one simple understanding: Economists do not recognize the macroeconomic importance of growing wealth inequality.”
Where Wall Street Gets It Right—And Washington Gets It Wrong
The trading world operates under a brutal but effective meritocracy. Profit and loss statements make success immediately visible, allowing talented analysts from any background to rise quickly based purely on results. This system rewards those willing to back their predictions with their own money—a discipline Stevenson calls “intellectual honesty.”
“Don’t tell me your opinion, tell me your position,” he said, explaining how risking personal wealth forces traders to rigorously examine their beliefs. “Opinions that people are not willing to back with the risk of personal financial loss are often bull****.”
This creates an environment where being right when everyone else is wrong generates massive rewards. Counter-trend trading, Stevenson says, “rewards the individual for being right when everybody is wrong.”
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The Million Dollar Problem: Best Economists Work for Banks, Not Governments
The fundamental frustration driving Stevenson’s transition from trading to activism is the exclusion of Wall Street’s proven forecasters from policy discussions. While the “best-paid 10,000 economists” work as traders with track records of accurate predictions, government advisors operate under completely different incentives, Stevenson said.
“In trading, you are paid and incentivized to be right,” Stevenson said. “In contrast, government advisors are primarily focused on winning elections and ‘comms strategy.’ University professors are focused on writing complicated mathematical papers for the ‘publish or perish’ requirement, not necessarily correcting long-held errors.”
This misalignment means the people who successfully predicted past crises are paid millions to bet on economic disasters rather than prevent them. The result is a system where governments consistently miss major economic shifts that traders see coming from miles away.
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The Radical Fix: Tax Wealth, Not Work
Stevenson’s proposed solution centers on addressing the root cause he identified through trading: extreme wealth inequality. His prescription is straightforward—”Tax wealth, not work”—targeting the concentration of assets that he believes drives economic instability.
Having transitioned from the trading floor to YouTube activism, Stevenson has found that ordinary people are more receptive to economic truth than policy establishments. He cites examples of impoverished food bank users supporting aid to Ukraine as evidence that regular citizens will back positive visions for the future when presented honestly.
“Ordinary people are generally good and willing to support a positive vision for the future,” he said, suggesting that bypassing traditional policy channels through direct public engagement might be the only way to implement the economic understanding that Wall Street’s best minds possess.
For investors watching this disconnect, Stevenson’s message is clear: the people who understand the economy best are currently betting against it rather than fixing it—and that should concern everyone.
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