Investors looking for a clear signal in a choppy market just got one. On Wednesday, Evercore ISI went all in on a higher S&P 500 on CNBC’s ‘Fast Money’, setting a bold new target of 7,750 by the end of 2026, a roughly 20% gain from today's levels. For the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY), the world's most traded ETF tracking the index, that's a forecast worth watching.
SPY ETF is up more than 10% this year, powering through market ups and downs. Track prices here.
AI: The Next Internet-Style Market Catalyst
Julian Emanuel, Evercore's senior managing director, believes artificial intelligence is about to do for markets what the Internet did in the late 1990s — only faster. "AI has every potential to be as significant, if not more than, the Internet revolution," Emanuel said, pointing out that the technology has already permeated industries across the economy. The recent market pullbacks, he argued, look more like the brief corrections during the 1998 Internet boom than the start of a downturn.
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Broader Participation Sets the Stage
Several factors support the call: a more cooperative Federal Reserve, broader market participation beyond mega-cap tech, and signs of a coming capital-markets surge as deal pipelines fill up. In short, this isn't just a narrow tech rally — energy, consumer staples, and healthcare have shown strength even on down days, a constructive backdrop for SPY's diversified portfolio.
Risks Remain, but Valuations Not Yet Extreme
Emanuel acknowledged that valuations have risen and warned of potential pullbacks. But he also noted that prior bubbles burst at much higher multiples, and that a vigorous capital-markets phase often marks the later stages of bull runs — not their ends.
"The pipelines are full. The event driven traders are sort of licking their chops. And frankly, that is a recipe for valuations, even with the favorable fundamental backdrop. And particularly if the market, as we believe, will have an ability to shrug off gently higher, not surging higher, long term yields, that that’s all part of the recipe to get us to 7,750,” he explained on CNBC.
SPY: The Simple, Liquid Play On A Bullish Call
For ETF investors, SPY offers a straightforward way to align with this bullish thesis. It provides instant exposure to all 500 S&P names, spreads risk across sectors, and boasts unparalleled liquidity, a crucial advantage in fast-moving markets.
If Evercore is right and the S&P 500 grinds toward 7,750, SPY stands to deliver the same upside with the efficiency of a single trade. In other words, while the market debates the next move, Evercore's forecast suggests the clearest play may be the oldest one: owning the index itself.
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